Google Might Disappear in Five Years

An anonymous reader writes "Speaking to a packed auditorium at Stanford University in Palo Alto, Calif., on May 12, Ballmer trumpeted the ripe opportunities around Microsoft's sprawling business and questioned the ability of Google to maintain its edge. Clearly alluding to Microsoft's key Internet search rival, Ballmer said: 'The hottest company right now -- the one nobody thinks can do any wrong -- may just be a one-hit wonder.' According to concept developed by Ballmer, the online search engines represent the key points of the future technology, and the leader in this domain, none other than Google, is destined to perish in less than five years. These predictions belong exclusively to Microsoft's CEO who sounds a little like Bill Gates announcing iPod's death."

Re:case in point

[Synkronos]

Which is why they are branching out into about twenty thousand _other_ ventures. Maps, Blogger, Video search, Keyhole, Picasa... etc etc etc http://www.google.com/options/ [google.com]

FUD Alert!!!

[el_womble]

One hit wonder?

1. Google Seach: hit
2. gMail: hit
3. Desktop Search: hit
4. Google News: hit

And thats just the stuff thats out of beta. I'm already using Google Mobile and Maps. They're trusted by geeks and Joe Six Pack alike and look like their about to have another hit with they're caching system. 5 years? One hit wonders? FUD FUD FUD FUD FUD

Re:case in point

[SillyNickName4me]

Given that internet search/indexing is a commodity Google will have a hard time sustaining any profitability in the long term.

Spidering and indexing might be considered comodities, catagorizing is not, at least judging from the difference in qualitz of results between the different engines.

Also, I do not remember Google (or any other search engine) asking me for money in order to get search results, so I somehow suspect Google doesn't earn its money from just being a search engine. Search technology is extremely important for them of course, and is the backbone of their enterprise, but its services on top of searching that is what the game is about.

Re:Already more than one-hit

[f0rtytw0]

If you have any digital photos you can also use Picasa which is from Google. The "I'm Feeling Lucky" feature in it is fantastic. So you can add that to your list of hits.

Re:case in point

[david.heyman]

Speaking of Web Platforms. Check out Robert X. Cringley's column [pbs.org] this week. He discusses the Google Web Accelerator [google.com] (which currently can't be downloaded) and says:

what I DO know is that the Google Web Accelerator effectively turns every user into a thin client, whether they know it or not.

He also says about some point in the future when Google is a platform that at that point:

Its a GoogleWorld that requires no AOL, no Microsoft, no Intel, no HP or Dell -- only Google, cable companies, telephone companies, users, and of course advertisers and web page producers.

Re:We have heard it before from M$

[thparker]

I trust Apple a great deal more than I trust any cell phone company.

Yup. Conveniently, an article [usatoday.com] in today's USA Today discusses the wireless industry and their abysmal record of customer satisfaction.

"In nearly every gauge of customer satisfaction, the wireless industry scores at or near the bottom. Worse than insurance companies. Worse than credit card outfits. Worse than car dealers."

You'll forgive me if I don't want these people to have anything to do with how I obtain and listen to music. The wireless providers want to maintain of lot of control over these heavily subsidized handsets and what we can do with 'em.

That's rediculously misleading

[KalvinB]

WISENutbot 1866 20.45 MB
Googlebot 1797 124.28 MB
MSNBot 923 14.41 MB
Inktomi Slurp 658 15.96 MB

The first number is the number of pages for the month, the second is the bandwidth used for the month. WISENutbot indexed more pages than Google but used 1/6th the bandwidth.

Google indexed twice as many pages but used 9 times the bandwidth as MSN

Your numbers assume

a) all the bots indexed the same pages
b) all the bots indexed the same number of pages

There's nothing unusual about bots not using the same amount of bandwidth. They're rarely indexing the same pages or the same amount of pages. They're on their own schedules.

Talk about Grade A FUD you're throwing around there.

Re:case in point

[jacquesm]

well, after having spent upwards of $10K on adwords I have but one little comment to add: it doens't work. period.

Google systematically overreports the number of people they claim they send you, and there is no arguing with them about this, it's their way or the highway. Since the total traffic from this source is not a very large factor in our overall operation I've decided to simply shut it down instead of trying to get them to reason about this.

Clickfraud, both on the channel and on the big G by your friendly competitors/unscrupulous website owners is rampant, and Google doesn't do a thing about it because it would cut into their business.

It's what killed 24/7, we'll see how Google responds in the long run.

Oh, and 'do no evil', how politically correct, how about 'do good' ?

Re:Playing Google's Game

[chrisd]

Not Speaking for Google:

I see 3 being pretty hard. I mean, look at how many sites keep up with that punch the monkey stuff. Number 2 is the most fun though.

Chris

PS: We are hiring, if you think you're up to the challenge :-)

Re:But seriously, folks...

[zerbot]

I know a guy who works for Microsoft and he is seriously demoralized because of the crap associated with Microsoft even though his project isn't involved in all the mudslinging. He feels trapped because there hasn't been another local employer for his skills and he doesn't want to uproot his family.

But... the other day I mentioned a project that Google is getting into that has natural extensions into his area. He really perked up at that. Google has opened an office quite close to Microsoft. Hmm...