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AI Security

Dire Predictions for 2025 Include 'Largest Cyberattack in History' (politico.com) 90

Politico asked an "array of thinkers — futurists, scientists, foreign policy analysts and others — to lay out some of the possible 'Black Swan' events that could await us in the new year: What are the unpredictable, unlikely episodes that aren't yet on the radar but would completely upend American life as we know it?"

Here's one from Gary Marcus, a cognitive scientist and author of the book Taming Silicon Valley: How We Can Ensure That AI Works For Us: 2025 could easily see the largest cyberattack in history, taking down, at least for a little while, some sizeable piece of the world's infrastructure, whether for deliberate ransom or to manipulate people to make money off a short on global markets. Cybercrime is already a huge, multi-trillion dollar problem, and one that most victims don't like to talk about. It is said to be bigger than the entire global drug trade. Four things could make it much worse in 2025.

First, generative AI, rising in popularity and declining in price, is a perfect tool for cyberattackers. Although it is unreliable and prone to hallucinations, it is terrific at making plausible sounding text (e.g., phishing attacks to trick people into revealing credentials) and deepfaked videos at virtually zero cost, allowing attackers to broaden their attacks. Already, a cybercrew bilked a Hong Kong bank out of $25 million. Second, large language models are notoriously susceptible to jailbreaking and things like "prompt-injection attacks," for which no known solution exists. Third, generative AI tools are increasingly being used to create code; in some cases those coders don't fully understand the code written, and the autogenerated code has already been shown in some cases to introduce new security holes.

And finally 2025 may see a U.S. government "determined to deregulate as much as possible, slashing costs," Marus speculates, a scenario where "enforcement and investigations will almost certainly decline in both quality and quantity, leaving the world quite vulnerable to ever more audacious attacks."

Elsewhere in Politico's article there's other even less-cheery predictions for 2025. The executive director of an advocacy group for public health professionals describes the possibility of an epidemic "that we had the tools to control" which "winds up killing thousands" (while also "sending the economy back into a Covid-like downward spiral.")

And a law professor predicts 2025 will see a decisive breakthrough in quantum computing. "Those little padlocks you see beside URLs? They would, overnight, become a fiction."

Dire Predictions for 2025 Include 'Largest Cyberattack in History'

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  • an epidemic "that we had the tools to control" which "winds up killing thousands"

    Thousands? That's what they're worried about? We need to pump those numbers up!

    • an epidemic "that we had the tools to control" which "winds up killing thousands"

      Thousands? That's what they're worried about? We need to pump those numbers up!

      And a law professor predicts 2025 will see a decisive breakthrough in quantum computing. "Those little padlocks you see beside URLs? They would, overnight, become a fiction."

      If tiny padlocks is all a law professor could come up with for this potential threat, then perhaps AI will at least be more creative with slinging bullshit painted in a fresh hue of FUD.

      • by Slayer ( 6656 )

        If tiny padlocks is all a law professor could come up with for this potential threat, then perhaps AI will at least be more creative with slinging bullshit painted in a fresh hue of FUD.

        The pad lock he described here are these little icons left to the URL shown by your browser, asserting, that the connection to your web server is encrypted. Quantum crypto will eventually be able to break this encryption, while that pad lock will still be there, giving users a false sense of security.

        This is how I read this professor's note, and it makes a lot of sense to me. This pad lock is just about the only thing cryptography related most web users ever get to see.

    • I expect someone to find a fatal flaw in Azure locking every computer using it as a login server.

      • by gweihir ( 88907 )

        A restricted version of that would already have been possible with the 2021 (discovered in 2023) complete compromise of Exchange Online. It also included "login with Microsoft". The only thing which made this not a major, major catastrophe is that the supposedly Chinese attackers were only interested in spying.

        But you are thinking small. What about compromising MS update and pushing malware that activates with a time delay and destroys most Windows installations?

        • What about compromising MS update and pushing malware that activates with a time delay and destroys most Windows installations?

          I'd love it if that happened because it would force millions of users to switch to Linux. Not only would that bring about the infamous Year of Linux on the Desktop, it would get rid of most of the malware because it's almost all Windows specific. Not only that, the vast bulk of it's being put out by script kiddies using malware generators who don't know how to create their own
          • by gweihir ( 88907 )

            Well, sure. The problem is if it happens like that, basically all supply chains and most manufacturing collapses for weeks to months.

          • As much as we'd all enjoy, on some level, the collapse of the reliance on Microsoft, that would not be a very fun situation to live through. The number of systems that society relies on to continue operating that run Windows would blow your mind. Not only would be see the business world have a long, deep pause, but there are infrastructure concerns, because our government does things based as much on business needs as on security and resilience. I happen to know a few people that work on major water supply

  • We will survive 2025 (Score:3, Interesting)

    by damn_registrars ( 1103043 ) * <damn.registrars@gmail.com> on Saturday January 04, 2025 @02:02PM (#65061901) Homepage Journal
    Sure, we have a rocky situation about to unfold this year in the US. Fascism is on the rise and it will control all three branches of the federal government, with no meaningful checks against its power. But 2025 will be nothing compared to 2028.

    Assuming that Trump lives that long - which is a big assumption for someone who is clinically obese and in their 70s - what will he do when election time comes along? Will anyone stop him from declaring himself exempt from the 22nd amendment? Or will anyone stop him from appointing his own son as a new emperor?

    And yes I know I will be moderated down into oblivion by the overwhelming conservative majority here. I also know that there is almost no chance of this site still being online in 2028, so nobody will see this comment when that day comes. That's all OK with me. Don't say you weren't warned. And don't pretend this doesn't impact technology.
    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by bjoast ( 1310293 )
      Fascism, n. Opinions that make me sad.
      • by Local ID10T ( 790134 ) <ID10T.L.USER@gmail.com> on Saturday January 04, 2025 @02:58PM (#65061981) Homepage

        Fascism - is a far-right, authoritarian, and ultranationalist political ideology and movement, characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, belief in a natural social hierarchy, subordination of individual interests for the perceived good of the nation or race, and strong regimentation of society and the economy. Opposed to anarchism, democracy, pluralism, egalitarianism, liberalism, socialism, and Marxism, fascism is at the far right of the traditional left–right spectrum.

        Fascism rejects the view that violence is inherently negative or pointless but rather views imperialism, political violence, and war as means to national rejuvenation. Fascists often advocate for the establishment of a totalitarian one-party state, and for a dirigiste economy (a market economy in which the state plays a strong directive role through economic interventionist policies), with the principal goal of achieving autarky (national economic self-sufficiency).

        Fascism's extreme authoritarianism and nationalism centres around the own group, but that can manifest as a belief in Manifest Destiny, revival of historical greatness (like Mussolini seeking to restore the Roman Empire) or in case of Nazism, racial purity or a master race which blended with some variant of racism or discrimination against a demonized "Other", such as Jews, homosexuals, transgender people, ethnic minorities, or immigrants.

        -Wikipedia [wikipedia.org]

        If the shoe fits...

        • And the Democrats STILL couldn't manage to run a candidate that could beat Trump. Think about that for a moment. The worst possible person to be President (Trump) and the Democrats said "Hold my beer" while they roll out someone even more unelectable. That's amazing.

          So we've two terrible political parties. The only real comfort I have in all this is, Republicans are REALLY bad at governing. They don't really want to. This means them getting stuff done is really difficult because of all the infighting in the

          • by damn_registrars ( 1103043 ) <damn.registrars@gmail.com> on Saturday January 04, 2025 @03:22PM (#65062027) Homepage Journal

            And the Democrats STILL couldn't manage to run a candidate that could beat Trump. Think about that for a moment. The worst possible person to be President (Trump) and the Democrats said "Hold my beer" while they roll out someone even more unelectable. That's amazing.

            They ran a candidate who was orders of magnitude more knowledgeable and qualified for the position. It should have been an easy win.

            What the democrats overlooked though was that the MAGA party still controls the narrative. It doesn't matter who controls the "media" as the media doesn't set the narrative any more. The narrative comes from social media, heavily produced and heavily covered political rallies, and all sorts of whisper campaigns. The narrative doesn't care about facts, it only carries the most repeated talking points.

            It didn't even matter that Twitter was purchased by a far-right maniac and turned into another conservative echo chamber. That die was already cast. There were too many ways for MAGA folks to spread their preferred narrative, and the democrats couldn't figure out a response.

            As has been said so many times before

            a lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes

            And never was that more relevant than on election day.

            • ^^^^ Mod parent up. This was a fair summary of some of the issues that mattered. There were other things to be sure, but this was a large part of it, possibly the largest.

            • "They ran a candidate who was orders of magnitude more knowledgeable "

              Really? Where? In the US we had the choice between The Senile One and Ms. Word Salad, aka The Giggler, and Trump.

              If Cthulhu had been on the ballot I suppose we could have picked an even greater evil, but the rules are the rules.

            • And the Democrats STILL couldn't manage to run a candidate that could beat Trump. Think about that for a moment. The worst possible person to be President (Trump) and the Democrats said "Hold my beer" while they roll out someone even more unelectable. That's amazing.

              They ran a candidate who was orders of magnitude more knowledgeable and qualified for the position. It should have been an easy win.

              Disclaimer - I voted for Harris Walz. I have to put that on any of thses posts, because otherwise I'll be accused of being MGA, neofascist or told to die in a fire.

              Yes, this should have been the biggest electoral victory ever, with all of the open seats filled with Democrats.

              But sure as hell was not. Why is that? I did a lot of research after the curb-stomping, prepare to get really pissed at me. I'll start with the least first.

              The past 4 years has been pretty far left on some spaces. Advertisements

              • What you are stating here is not the message of the party, but the party's message as reflected by the MAGA-sphere. Yes, the democrats spent too much time on gender politics, but that was in no small part because they were unable to refuse the bait that was laid by the MAGA folks. The democrats could have let the MAGA folks dig their own graves on bathroom laws but they just had to try to take a stand over it instead. Honestly most people don't give a damn about it one way or the other; just put up more
                • What you are stating here is not the message of the party, but the party's message as reflected by the MAGA-sphere.

                  So was Seth Moulton a MAGA plant or something? The reaction to his saying he didn't want his little girls being run over by men on their sports teams. with his campaign manager quitting in rage, and 10 of his staffers demanding that he change his opinion to support for men playing in women's sports, and apologize to the trans community and the remaining Democrats in congress working to strip him of appointments - I never knew that MAGA had infiltrated the Democrats.

                  I fully support men who want to be wo

              • You could summarize all this as too much focus on culture wars. If the D party focused on real solutions to the core problems in the country, drag queens and Snow White wouldn't be so relevant at the ballot box.

                And copied from my other post:

                I heard on a liberal talk show this summer, a discussion of Harris campaigning on abortion. The host (a female) seemed very certain that women all think about abortion rights each time they have their period. Their vaginas would compel them to vote for Harris, supposedly

                • You could summarize all this as too much focus on culture wars. If the D party focused on real solutions to the core problems in the country, drag queens and Snow White wouldn't be so relevant at the ballot box.

                  And copied from my other post:

                  Yup. Drag Queens. Not for nothing, the far left attacks on everyone else extended to RuPaul. Now get this - RuPaul was attacked by the LGBTQ+ crowd https://www.vox.com/culture/20... [vox.com] I mean the guy who pretty much normalized transvestitism, is too bigoted for today's DEI? We must understand that the far left crown can find things to go crazy about and have no intention of stopping. Even quite liberal comedian Patton Oswalt told the LGBTQ+ crowd that they might want to pump the brakes a bit.

                  I heard on a liberal talk show this summer, a discussion of Harris campaigning on abortion. The host (a female) seemed very certain that women all think about abortion rights each time they have their period. Their vaginas would compel them to vote for Harris, supposedly. Sounded kind of weird, I don't contemplate marriage laws or condoms every time I take a piss (for example).

                  I'm pro choice. H

          • by Local ID10T ( 790134 ) <ID10T.L.USER@gmail.com> on Saturday January 04, 2025 @03:36PM (#65062059) Homepage

            It doesn't really matter to me. I am Gen-x: as long as you leave me and mine alone I do not give a fuck what you do; if you come at me I will fight you to the death over minor shit with no regard for the consequences.

            I'm also a middle aged, married, straight, white, male, business owner, living in a wealthy, California, coastal enclave. I am well shielded from the worst effects of what is to come.

            I am well educated, and grew up poor in the mid-west. I have significant experience with conservative America, and can see how it has changed during my lifetime. I see that we have become a Fascist nation.

            I hope that future generations will recover from the evils we inflict upon the world now. It has been worse in the past, and it has gotten better afterwards. If that is any indication, then there is a better future ahead. But things will be ugly for a while.

            Your fight is not my fight. Your concerns and prejudices are not my own.

            • ... it has gotten better afterwards.

              It's taken some countries 70-90 years to 'get better': A lot of that was because they were still being oppressed at an international level. It's difficult to know if Russia and allies will have sufficient influence over a broken USA. Rebuilding a country is a tumultuous process and rarely results in modern democracy.

              The important part is "rebuilding", which is why I say your rights don't reappear when you choose a better president. First let's examine the destruction that might occur over the next few

          • by HiThere ( 15173 )

            Personally, I assumed they didn't want to take the blame for what the economy is going to do to people as AI takes more and more jobs. Some will profit immensely, but a much large group will lose enough to balance that out.

            Wait a decade and things may be a lot different, but I think we're in for a very rough patch.

        • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

          by hdyoung ( 5182939 )
          Painting the whole of the GOP as fascists plays right into the hands of Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Greene and that infowars chump. Not to mention the Chinese, Russian and Iranian spy agencies that are constantly working to break us apart.

          I live in a pretty-damn-red state and I can tell you that I know tons of conservatives and GOP-ers, and none of them are fascists. Do we agree on everything? No. But that doesnt make them fascists.

          I’ve seen a few genuine fascists around. A few years ago the KKK h
          • Painting the whole of the GOP as fascists [...]

            Not all Germans were Nazis. And yet the Nazi party won the election, and the Nazi extremists took control of Germany and we all know where that led.

            Not all GOP are MAGA. And yet we elected a president on a platform that ticks every box on the definition of Fascism -openly and proudly. Where will that lead?

            • Most of german society (at the time) just shrugged their shoulders and went along with the guy. Yeah, that led to some extremely bad outcomes.

              As I said, most of US society is either actively opposed to him, or just passive-aggressively refusing to go along with him. Yeah, we elected him, but don’t believe for a second that the whole society is invested in the MAGA bs. Like I said, congress, the courts, the military, the police, the states, and most of the internet are NOT going along with the guy.
              • I hope you are right. I think many will actively push him along the path to fascism, and that most will shrug and go along rather than resist.

              • As I said, most of US society is either actively opposed to him, or just passive-aggressively refusing to go along with him.

                Unfortunately the number of people who don't agree with him doesn't matter at all. That's how fascism works, after all. The opposition will be degraded one way or another until there is no opposition - or at least none that are allowed to vote or wield power.

                donâ(TM)t believe for a second that the whole society is invested in the MAGA bs

                It doesn't matter how many 2024 voters subscribe to it. What matters is how many elected republicans do. That number is, for all intents and purposes, 100%. The MAGA party - the GOP will be fully dead and buried on January 21st - supports everythi

          • by HiThere ( 15173 )

            That's not fascism. Fascism is about the large companies and the state working together to achieve their common goals. That's why the symbol was an axe bound into a bunch of sticks. The axe represented the force that the government brought to the agreement and the stick represented the companies that worked in concert with the government. (I suppose that theoretically any corporate state fits that model, but I believe that Mussolini intended that the government be the ruling power.)

            • Ahh -you reject reality and substitute your own!

              As an Adam Savage fan, I fully support your efforts.

            • Socialism is about the state and large companies working together to achieve their common goals.

              Marxist socialism seems to kill more than national socialism, but the national socialists were more methodical about it.

      • If you look at Trump and don't see a fascist, get your eyes (and your brain) checked.

        • by gweihir ( 88907 )

          Trump is more like the toy-version of a fascist. I expect a real fascist to be _effective_ at evil and knowingly commit mass-murder, torture and the like. Trump just seems too dumb and uneducated to ever get there. Best he can do is some rape and some fraud. Pathetic.

          • Ok, so... Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, and the evangelicals that have everything in place for a January 21st bonanza fascist blitzkrieg?

            Mmmmm put on some gloves cuz I think this is gonna burn when you try to grab on.

            • by gweihir ( 88907 )

              We will see. The good thing is that these assholes, unlike real competent fascists, do not have common goals. It may all just devolve into complete chaos.

    • Assuming that Trump lives that long - which is a big assumption for someone who is clinically obese and in their 70s - what will he do when election time comes along? Will anyone stop him from declaring himself exempt from the 22nd amendment? Or will anyone stop him from appointing his own son as a new emperor?

      Could be worse, he could anoint Mr. Personality, JD Vance.

      • Vance would be fine. The guy is actually pretty educated, hard working and competent. He wrote a pretty damn high quality book, and by all accounts he actually authored it himself.

        His Trumpism is 100% an act.
    • For Trump to be declared King just yet. Instead what they're going to do is just what they've always done, make it tough for anyone under 45 to vote. Long wait times, complicated voter ID laws that they pretend have something to do with election security even though they've been caught multiple times in courts documents, probably some more bomb threats to add to the 67 we had this year, etc etc.

      If you see the Republicans seriously attacking social security and Medicare for existing recipients then you
    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      And yes I know I will be moderated down into oblivion by the overwhelming conservative majority here.

      I do not think there is a conservative majority here. There are just some really loud and really dumb assholes from that spectrum.

  • Predictions are hard, especially about the future

  • Are already a fiction.

    People believe they mean their transaction and information are secure and securely stored, vs. "this is the site it says it is and your session is encrypted over the wire".

    Hell, with Unicode substitutions, a paper-thin "web of trust" and corporate interception proxies, those two things are a fiction, too.

    An attacker doesn't have to be very good at all to mess with your via TLS.

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Yes. My lecture about certificates is about one failed attempt to make them secure after the other. The best thing we currently have is short-lived "let's encrypt" certificates. Others are _worse_. Certification revocation is so broken that we essentially have to give up on it. The state-of-the-art is utterly pathetic.

  • Every person for themselves...

    People will have to dedicate a significant fraction of their bandwidth and funds just to ensure that they aren't phished or hacked, or taken advantage of or swindled. Most people will end up falling prey to one or more of these criminals or parasitic businesses.

    No, the government won't help to resolve this. You're on your own. There are too many vested interests providing re-election money to the politicians to deregulatate, or at least maintain the status quo.

    Business don't wa

  • Whatever will I do? Put the correct flag on my sosh?

  • But I can't imagine much by way of humor. I wouldn't want to put a firm date on anything, but... I keep thinking about the Fermi Paradox, how fast we are developing new ways to exterminate ourselves, and how slowly we solve any of the problems. Not just the old problems. Lots of people are still suffering from starvation and dying from curable diseases as I type this, but it's the new problems we don't even want to acknowledge that could finally finish us off.

    I actually think the main existential threat is

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      I keep thinking about the Fermi Paradox,

      Same here. And it does not actually require extinction. Civilization collapse with no way to get any higher than small villages and nomadic tribes afterwards is quite enough. And that is currently being arranged with climate-change.

  • https://www.activeresponsetrai... [activeresp...aining.net]

    Sarah Adams, Former Targeter at The CIA

    Shawn Ryan “I just wanna clarify. You are 100% certain that there are 1,000+ Al-Qaeda trained fighters within the United States borders”

    The CIA “I think there's more than a thousand Al-Qaeda members in the United States — Well, Al-Qaeda says they trained and deployed a thousand for this attack”

    Sarah Adams then goes on to explain how there actually will probably be even more

    During this Shawn Ryan Show episod

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      they were talking about 50,000 - 60,000 Americans lives being lost to these upcoming attacks

      That is peanuts. The real problem is the chaos that would ensue, with likely a _lot_ more dead.

  • As I say from time to time, "With these new advances, technology may finally permit history to have an end."

  • Dude, we've already had an epidemic (ok, pandemic) that killed 1.2 MILLION in the United States alone. An epidemic that kills thousands is small change.

  • The largest Cyber-Attack in history SO FAR

  • Not sure why this year would mark the sudden appearance of infrastructure failures after poor security actions. Has happened before and what new capabilities do we have that we didn't last year?

    Think that's what you should include next time. "Why didn't this 'black swan' event happen before." Does little good to predict something scary if there is no reason for it to be more likely today than it was yesterday.

    Also kind of wonder which people would have personally benefited from their predictions (asking

  • Fuck it, I'm gong to paddle of the edge this year.

  • The whole Microsoft Exchange Online infrastructure being compromised for two years was not spectacular enough. Neither was Crowdstrike. Neuther was that incident with the US fuel pipeline. We need some form of chaos and destruction people can relate to before anything changes in the increasingly crappy IT and IT security landscape. The later that catastrophe comes, the worse it will be. Obviously it cannot be avoided. Hence 2025 would be a really good time to finally have it.

    Caveat: I am in IT security. I m

  • 2025 could easily see the largest cyberattack in history, taking down, at least for a little while, some sizeable piece of the world's infrastructure

    Have they given consideration to not connecting their critical infrastructure to the Internet.

The world is not octal despite DEC.

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