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United States IT

Americans Begin Returning to Cities After Remote-Work Exodus, Data Shows (msn.com) 194

An anonymous reader shares this report from the Washington Post: The exodus of people fleeing large urban areas during the height of the pandemic appears to be reversing, according to data from the Census Bureau released Thursday. Many workers who could telecommute abandoned crowded cities and counties for suburban or rural areas when covid struck, causing demographers and businesses to wonder whether the movement signified a permanent shift. But the overall patterns of population change are moving toward pre-pandemic rates, the bureau's Vintage 2022 estimates of population and components of change show.

Eleven of the 15 largest metro areas gained residents or lost fewer people compared with the previous year, including the D.C. metro area, New York City, the San Francisco Bay Area, and Seattle, according to an analysis by Brookings Institution senior demographer William Frey.... Among the most striking recorded shifts were in Manhattan and San Francisco, both of which lost population at a significant rate between 2020 and 2021. Manhattan, which shrank by 5.87 percent in 2021, grew by 1.11 percent last year. San Francisco lost 6.79 percent of its population in 2021 but shrank by only a third of a percentage point last year. Both are home to a large number of people who were able to work remotely during the pandemic. Covid rates in New York City were especially high early in the pandemic, and many Manhattan residents moved to outlying counties....

"Many counties with large universities saw their populations fully rebound this year as students returned," said Christine Hartley, assistant division chief for estimates and projections in the Census Bureau's population division.

The article also makes the point that immigration into America was temporarily restricted during the pandemic, so outflows never had a chance to be counterbalanced by inflows. And the exodus to the suburbs may have already peaked. Last year Manhattan gained 17,472 people, the article points out, while counties outside the city lost residents. The Census Bureau notes that was a pattern for 2022: "the smallest counties nationally, those with populations below 10,000, experienced more population loss (60.8%) than gains (38.3%); while the largest counties, having populations at or greater than 100,000, largely experienced population increases (68%)."

Beyond that, the executive director of the DC Fiscal Policy Institute argues that it's just too soon to know whether the pandemic-era outflow from cities was permanent. "We've just been through a major health and economic shock. There's been what I call a doomsday narrative about what's going to happen, with predictions of empty downtowns and city centers that wither and die." They believe the new census data "should give us pause in terms of declaring that we've arrived at a new normal. It's highly likely that some of the folks who left will come back, and we really don't know if it's going to be a lot of them or just a small portion."
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Americans Begin Returning to Cities After Remote-Work Exodus, Data Shows

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  • I wonder (Score:5, Insightful)

    by war4peace ( 1628283 ) on Sunday April 02, 2023 @11:38AM (#63419302)

    ...How many of these are forced comebacks? "Come to the office or you're fired!"

    • ...How many of these are forced comebacks? "Come to the office or you're fired!"

      Forced? You mean like the employer expecting you to work or something?

      The standard narrative on slashdot is that everyone is able to tell their employer fo sod off, and they'll be able to never go to an office agsin because they are the best of the best, and will be working again with a quick phone call.

      • I believe you misunderstood me.
        This is not about the employer expecting the employee to work.
        This is not even about whether one should work from the office or remotely.

        This is only about whether the data is about people coming back into the city because they want to or because they were told to.
        I'd like to see statistics like: "X% of those coming back are doing so because their employer mandates coming to office, Y% came back because they didn't like working remotely from outside the city, Z% came back for

    • by Kisai ( 213879 )

      All of them.

      There is no reason to work in an office tower anymore. Anyone who tells you otherwise is over 40 and needs to retire.

      • Well, I'm over 40 and I think working in an office tower is stupid.

      • A lot of non-asocial (extroverted) younger people actually like the social aspects of work. This place (Slashdot) just skews introvert/aspie.
        • A lot of non-asocial (extroverted) younger people actually like the social aspects of work.

          If you like the social aspects of work you were probably doing very little actual work.

          For a while the tech industry allowed for a LOT of workers to be very slack on actually producing.

          • I get more done in the office because I have the opportunity to quickly walk to someone's desk and start a conversion. Yes, I realize there are video chat options but they just don't work as well for me as face to face.

            I do enjoy the two days per week when I work from home but typically spend more hours at my computer.
      • I'm nearing retirement age, though I continue to find satisfaction in my job. I've been working from home since the very early stages of the pandemic and I will not go back to working from the office after an hour commute each way. So, no, not everybody over 40 agrees with your statement. Not everyone's job can be done from home, but those jobs that can be done from home should be done from home.
    • It was coming to an end ... for most workers except a privledged few.

      At the end of the day any employment contract is like a game of tug of war on who has more power. When you have rare valuable skills and there are not enough workers the works pull > employers. The workers dictate the salary and working conditions.

      When the pendukumn swings in the other direction like in a recession the employer has a greater pull in the tug of war game and the out of work worker has less than workers employers.

      The empl

  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Sunday April 02, 2023 @11:47AM (#63419344)
    owners of commercial real estate are trying to force them back.
  • by Lije Baley ( 88936 ) on Sunday April 02, 2023 @11:58AM (#63419390)

    But....

    (see History Channel Ancient Aliens meme)

    Seriously though, there were reported meetings of local business leaders on the problems due to lack of workers downtown, and then a week later there were all kinds of back to office announcements.

    • One has to wonder why. Why would I care as a business owner whether or not some unrelated business survives? It's not like I have a stake in it.

      • At the public level, it's politics as usual, as they are members of the same organizations, clubs, whatever, and want to be like each other. Behind the scenes it's more complicated, and is pretty much like you say. It's likely that return to office will be unevenly enforced by those who publicly tout it, as they continue to compete for decent employees. Few conspiracies survive the complexity of reality.

        • The first question for me is why RTO anyway. So far, still nobody really offered a consistent explanation why this should be done.

          Second, you can rest assured that there are certain groups of people who can easily resist a RTO policy. There are some groups that are not desperately sought, they are being HUNTED DOWN. You have NO idea what my inbox looks like. Recently I had a headhunter bluntly asking what he would have to offer me so I would at least return his mail. I can see it myself, getting security pe

          • Recently I had a headhunter bluntly asking what he would have to offer me so I would at least return his mail.

            The proper reply to something like that consists of one word: *plonk!* For those of you too young to know, that's the sound of somebody's address hitting the bottom of your killfile. Just be sure to follow through.
            • Actually I found the question kinda weird. And frankly, I didn't know what to answer. There wasn't really anything they could offer me. I'm happy with where I am, my work-life balance is awesome, they're happy to have me, I finally have a manager who knows what his job is (getting the required resources at the right time to the right place in the right amount so I can do my job, I know how to do my job, I don't need him for that), and all that at a company that will probably exist 'til the heat death of the

              • OK, you're one of the lucky ones. Good for you! But my advice still stands for those of you out there being pestered by clueless headhunters that can't accept the fact that, "I'm not interested." means exactly what it says.
                • Yes, I'm insanely lucky. I just happen to have a skill combination that is not only rare but also incredibly wanted.

                  Abuse headhunters. Reply to them. Ask them what they can offer to you. Realize, though, that they will just want to pad their portfolio with additional people they can offer. You're just another number they can offer to their clients. And you are NOT their clients. You're their product. Always be aware of that!

        • Political as well in office politics. Those who come in can chat with leadership and take on more projects behind the other team's backs and can look more important and dedicated.

          Gray hairs promote them. Stupid but I have seen it at my last employer which is why I left.

          There is still a stigma people will goof all day if they have distractions and people can't keep an eye on them

      • I'm betting the message was: "Tax revenues are way down. Bring your people back into the office and help bring that tax revenue back in. Otherwise, we'll have to find other ways of collecting that revenue."

        If you're a business owner located downtown, it's probably in your interest to ensure downtown doesn't turn into a wasteland. In the case of tech companies, they're reducing headcount right now anyhow, so they probably feel somewhat safe in making unpopular demands of their employees. Any *truly* indi

        • If I'm a business owner and renting office space in downtown, being able to get away renting less office space should actually be in my interest...

          • Empty buildings attract crime including squatting, and costly vandalism. (I have all kinds of sympathy for the squatters, but I'm answering the question asked.) What you really want is to be both collecting rents and raising the value of your real estate, the two of which are interrelated (however distantly.)

          • Maybe they've signed a long-term lease, built the place out, so they've got too many sunk costs to abandon the central office. It could be that they've also been looking for an excuse to pull their workers back in, because managers like to manage. Or they think this is just a temporary blip and lazy workers are trying to take advantage, etc, etc... Hard to say. I'm not sure how else to explain it, because it seems to be happening.

        • Why does a business owner renting space care? If their employees want to work from home and it's not causing any kind of productivity loss or other issues, why does the business need to continue renting all of that space? Perhaps once upon a time a downtown office was worth it because your workers lived close by and being downtown offered all the amenities and prestige on top of that. Why continue that when no one lives nearby and it's a multi-hour commute just to get to the office for everyone?
      • Because your business may be dependent on your neighborhood having other businesses that bring customers to the general area.
  • ...or are bosses sacking those working from home and hiring people to work only in the office?

    These stats would look the same either way.

    So the headline is pure speculation.
  • FTFS: "immigration into America was temporarily restricted during the pandemic"

    I'm going to assume that the people moving into cities are not the same as those who moved out.

  • Residence is one thing, but frankly I trust the Google Mobility (Android) location data much more as an indicator of activity.

  • by spaceyhackerlady ( 462530 ) on Sunday April 02, 2023 @04:51PM (#63420324)

    I've worked remotely to various extents since 2008, moving from a vestigial office to a shared office space to working from home. Since head office is in Texas and I'm in Canada, moving closer is unlikely. I moved from a major city (Vancouver) to a regional centre (Kamloops) just before the bottom fell out of everything. The move had been in the works for a while and I was settling in nicely when all hell broke loose.

    Now? They can keep Vancouver. Not only is it a dump now, the rents have skyrocketed since I left and I refuse to pay that much to live there.

    ...laura

  • People have been migrating from small towns to cities for more than a century. While the numbers certainly show that people aren't leaving big cities as quickly, are they actually moving to cities in numbers comparable to past years?

    Also, the threshold using by the Census Bureau for a "big city" was 100,000 people. If you live in New York or San Francisco or Houston, 100,000 people is pretty small. If these cities are growing, it could still be that people are leaving the biggest cities and moving to smalle

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