Record Number of Consumers Waiting To Upgrade Their Cellphones (bloomberg.com) 191
An anonymous reader quotes a report from Bloomberg: Wireless customers are hanging on to their old phones longer than ever. That's the message from Verizon, which said its upgrade rate fell to a record low last quarter -- a harbinger of tough times ahead for the iPhone and other devices. Faced with $1,000 price tags on moderately improved phones, consumers may be waiting to hear more about new 5G networks before committing to new models. The faster, more advanced services won't roll out in earnest until 2020. "Incremental changes from one model the the next, hasn't been that great, and it hasn't been enough of an incentive," Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matt Ellis said in an interview Tuesday after the company reported fewer-than-expected new customers for the first quarter. He expects replacement rates to be down for the year.
replaceable battery (Score:5, Insightful)
Give me a replaceable battery and I'll upgrade.
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The crazy thing though is this phone is sold (on Amazon) as a gray-market import from Latin America where it is really sold. It is not marketed in the US. Why? It really feels like they are holding out on u
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I just ordered a replacement battery for my LG G5 (obviously not a current flagship phone) for under $15 on AliExpress.
It's really easy to replace, too, this is a fully supported-by-the-manufacturer process. There's a video on YouTube showing how to do it, and it's a minute long.
Sure the line in the case where it comes apart would "ruin" the aesthetic of a featureless piece of glass/metal, but I'm happy to live with it. I keep mine in a case anyway. The button you use to pop it apart isn't a big deal either
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Until Samsung sells a phone with an unlockable bootloader here in the US, I'll pass on them. Other countries get the Exynos chipset which is easily unlocked, but the US gets the Snapdragon chipset that cannot be unlocked.
Honestly, why upgrade phones? My old iPhone works well enough, and I don't forsee needing animojis. In recent releases, phones have been shedding features (again, unlockable bootloaders, batteries, headphone jacks), as well as jumping in price. Why bother with a phone that has fewer cap
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The problem is, if you counted every geek that wanted to unlock the bootloader on their phone you wouldn't get the rounding error in any significant cell phone maker's sales.
Makers just don't care and there's no reason to cater to this crowd because its too tiny, and often too divided among itself to even agree enough to support even one product that might meet its knees. You can just see the arguments about how it had the wrong OS, the wrong hardware, the wrong screen, battery, etc.
Re:replaceable battery (Score:5, Insightful)
That isn't a replaceable battery. It's a battery that you have to hire a 'genius' to replace. Replaceable batteries can be changed by snapping open the case. You can carry a spare battery and even change it while you're riding in an airplane if you choose.
Replacement battery unneeded & why I'm waiting (Score:4, Insightful)
Actually, if the phone is properly designed, you should be able to ignore the dying battery by powering it with an external battery via the USB port. Suboptimal, but not the most suboptimal situation I've lived with. When I signed the contract with my new carrier, they even gave me an external battery as a premium, though I haven't needed to use it yet.
The reason I was willing to sign the 4-year contract was basically a Moore's Law thing. If I manage to stay with the phone for 4 years (and my wife has stayed with hers for over 6 years now), then my next phone will have twice the capability and cost half as much. Alternatively, unless they can convince me I need more capability than I have now I should be able to replace it for 1/4 the cost. That would put the new phone in the range of a moderately fancy meal.
Okay, I admit that I'm not sure if the smartphones are still tracking Moore's Law. However I am pretty sure that I don't need much more capability. Almost all the new functions I want now are limited by software, not the hardware (except for mesh networking capabilities to mostly cut the carriers out of the picture).
Back to the main question: What are the odds I can keep this smartphone alive for 4 years? I actually thought about an Ask Slashdot submission along those lines. (My main tactic is using the fingerprint sensor to avoid using the power button.)
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Power jack.
Still rocking a Galaxy S7 here, but got an extended battery / case. Tripled my battery life, and the power jack on the phone is permamounted to the case, so I actually plug into the $25 case, rather than the phone itself.
Just a suggestion that (so far) works for me.
Inflation is good and Moore's Law is bad? (Score:2)
Yes, that's a better version of the same solution approach.
Just read an interesting perspective on this story in an unrelated source. It was actually talking about the 2% target for inflation. The kernel of the mathematician's argument was that inflation was crucial to keeping the economy moving. He contrasted inflation with deflation. Why would people buy anything if prices are falling and they are sure they can get a better one at a lower price by merely waiting? Made more sense than most of what I've rea
Let me change the effin battery (Score:5, Insightful)
Oops, this completely fucks up the cellphone companies business model of selling as many phones this quarter as you can.
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Re: Let me change the effin battery (Score:1)
Should have bought an iPhone. The poor man buys twice.
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Grandpa always said ... don't eat anything until you see it in good light. .
That's what she said.
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Thought exercise: we've had the modern era of smartphones now for like 13 years, and all large-market manufacturers have abandoned replaceable battery designs. Don't you think that if there really was a market segment that cared about this as much as people on Slashdot always bleat on about, there would be at least one model available?
The statistics would say that it's just not a feature that people find to be a deal breaker on a phone purchase. Or, that including the extra thickness of battery casing and
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Give me a choice between replaceable battery and not, and I will certainly go with the replaceable. (And yes, I have replaced the battery on my current phone.)
Phone thickness? Why on earth would I worry about that? Strikes me about like tail fins on cars.
Re: Let me change the effin battery (Score:5, Insightful)
You seem to be under the misconception that corporate decision making is driven by customer desires. It is not. Corporations make decisions based on profit maximization. Sometimes, yes, that coincides with fulfilling customers' desires. But sometimes the way to maximize profits is to fuck over your customers.
Re: Let me change the effin battery (Score:4, Insightful)
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Go back and read the headline.
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Either way, it appears that the cellphone makers aren't making what the population wants.
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You seem to be under the misconception that corporate decision making is driven by customer desires. It is not. Corporations make decisions based on profit maximization. Sometimes, yes, that coincides with fulfilling customers' desires. But sometimes the way to maximize profits is to fuck over your customers.
You seem to be under the misconception that desires of slashdot readers are customer desires. They are not. My wife doesn't want to change the battery, she doesn't want to root her phone, she doesn't care for 5G, and I have better things to do in my life as well, so I don't care for these things either. 99% of users don't care.
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She also doesn't care about 5G, but she probably does want things to load fast, and for her videos not to waste time buffering.
Sure, the average person doesn't care what technology accomplishes what they want, they may not know the di
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There's a tipping point when you have just enough people who will take whatever is shoved at them that the manufacturers can get away with less-good products and higher prices The rest of us get swept along and have less and less choice.
Apple had enough fanboys to mak
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Re:Let me change the effin battery (Score:5, Insightful)
I don't blame the cell phone companies for non-removable batteries. I blame clueless reviewers in the media and mindless buyers. Samsung tried for the longest time to retain a removable battery. Every review of their phones complained that it wasn't 1 mm thinner and that the removable plastic back felt cheap. And millions of idiot buyers parroted those reviews - they'd rather have something needlessly thin that feels good, but functions worse. These are the same reviewers who complained they wanted a "premium" metal exterior, then promptly covered it up with a plastic case to protect it. With Samsung's earlier phones, you could just buy a replacement plastic back for $5 if it got too scratched up. Eventually Samsung threw in the towel and went the non-removable battery route.
I've had to buy cases for all my phones the last 8 years not to protect them, but to make them thicker so I wouldn't drop them so easily. I would much rather they had come with bigger batteries than be slightly thinner. (I'm currently on a Motorola Z2 Force which I bought only because it was heavily discounted. But after I found out about Motorola's mods, I added a battery Moto mod. It made the phone thick enough that I can hold it securely without a case. And it lets me go 3 days between charges. Almost perfect. The only drawback is they got rid of the headphone jack.)
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- replaceable battery
- IR transmitter
- headphone jack
- large screen (yes, it was larger than any note phone since due to the narrowing aspect ratio)
- back with enough grip you didn't need a case
- unlockable bootloader
- physical keys
Unfortunately what it no lon
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why would I buy a phone for 5g? (Score:5, Interesting)
In general, my phone is connected via WiFi almost everywhere I go except when driving. When driving, it only needs to handle maps and Assistant commands which it does very well, often even when there is no connection. Even when at a location with WiFi, I rarely browse because I'm old enough to need reading glasses, but when I do it is very fast.
So, what is 5G going to give me?
If they would simply stop killing my phone's speed with updates but continue security updates indefinitely, I'd have no reason to buy another phone until this one fails. And that is the way it should be. I'm OK with a phone being over $500, but a phone should not be a $500-$1000 per year device. At least give me the three years that my computers gave me even in their hayday.
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It's been many years since I heard someone complain that the phones weren't capable of fast enough speeds, but I hear people complain about the data allowances daily.
Ha! Cellphones are "DOOMED"! (Score:5, Insightful)
Remember when lots of folks were waiting to upgrade their PC, because video card and PC chip manufacturers were basically taking years off between major upgrades, and there was practically no new silver bullet software demanding an upgrade?
Yeah - that's what this is. There's nothing sexy about a new cell phone now. An extra couple of gigabytes storage isn't going to buy you anything new you couldn't already do with your phone. No one's going to gamble a major software project on some little edge upgrade on some newer phone model.
Nothing wrong with a bit of a 'mature' era for phone upgrades. Steady on, replacements and limited new customers are about what you can expect. That's still many, MANY billions of dollars - but it's no longer a gold mine for the stock market to throw parties over.
Which unfortunately means about what it means for a while with the stock market - thirsty to draw extra blood from that stone, the 'innovations' the market will be deciding to encourage will be the really, REALLY stupid ones.
Major manufacturers are going to start cutting off existing functionality to put basically extra toll booths and rental fees on existing crap. Why? Basically to give a mutual fund manager something to say in a meeting.
And major names will basically be ruined by this - but that's what an itchy stock market does when the drug starts running out.
But that's OK - new chips will eventually get 'sexy' again, and new form factors and product features will finally be possible. It just won't be for longer than we'd want again.
But just because of what happened last several times the PC market went through this bullshit: "Haha, Cellphones: Officially dead."
Did I do that right?
Ryan Fenton
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But.. but... this new one is thinner!!
Heh. Do the designers of these ever-thinner phones ever look at the sales figures for those silicon cases everybody buys to wrap around their phone just to make it feel bigger?
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Do the designers of these ever-thinner phones ever look at the sales figures for those silicon cases everybody buys to wrap around their phone just to make it feel bigger?
Of course they do. And they hope you'll buy that case at full markup price right off the rack at the Apple Store!
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For anyone who doesn't know there are alternatives, the Monoprice web site is a good place (one of many) to find cases for less than $10, and my experience with them has always been good.
Bixby cracks me up (Score:1)
Samsung must feel vindicated in their pursuit of phones that can't fit in decent cases.
Fatal Flaws (Score:2)
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I'm confused, the iPhone's had a fingerprint reader for a while. I think the next phone I get will be an iPhone7. You know, the newest one with a headphone jack.
The Pixel 2 XL sounds nice, but I don't get your acceptance of a missing headphone jack being okay because it's cheap. Every $20 phone I buy has a headphone jack!
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Apple removed the headphone jack in the iPhone 7 Plus. Might want to verify it is still in the regular 7.
IIRC the iPhone 6 is the last one that has the headphone jack.
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You're correct, the iPhone 7 was the first one without a headphone jack,not the last one with it. It is also the oldest phone sold direct by Apple.
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I replaced the battery on my 6P and it's still going strong. Using a custom rom called "Pixel Experience" based on Android 9. Mostly a stock experience. Obviously rooted.
I'm not waiting (Score:2)
Like PCs 10 years ago, Phones are now good enough (Score:5, Insightful)
Modern phones are amazing. How much they can pack into a small package. But they are good enough for most people.
Slightly better cameras. Slightly faster apps. Slightly faster downloads. Slightly slicker packaging without that audo jack. Nothing of real value.
Manufacturers need to figure out how to make an ultra slim battery that works brilliantly for 2 years and then dies by melting the rest of the phone around it.
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" Manufacturers need to figure out how to make an ultra slim battery that works brilliantly for 2 years and then dies by melting the rest of the phone around it. "
They should probably give Tesla a ring. I think they've almost perfected the very feature you speak of :P
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Why Buy? (Score:3)
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New features suck (Score:5, Insightful)
Namely pseudo-features (no-bezel, curved screens, folding screens) and anti-features (thinness, inaccsesible battery/SD/SIM) are all the handset manufacturers are willing to add nowadays. Consumers can sense that these devices are designed to be expensive, fragile, and decreasingly maintainable.
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Add to that missing phone jack, screens way too wide, too big for pockets, crappy zillion megapixel cameras that poop out noisier pictures than the several megapixel cameras of five years ago. I don't want to pay multi hundreds of dollars to downgrade. 5G is nothing more but another way for the government to spy on us all since the technology needs to know the cellphone location in order for the cell tower to aim the beam. The biggest problem today is not the resolution or the quantity or the bandwidth b
Kill the notch and add a headphone jack (Score:5, Insightful)
I would buy one of the new flagships if they had a headphone jack and didn't have a stupid notch in the top of the screen.
Also I don't need seventeen cameras...
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There are phones that have no notch already. See: Vivo Nex, Oppo Find X, Xiaomi Mi Mix 3, and the One Plus 7 Pro which launches next month.
yeah, either that, or... (Score:1)
Kiss my buttocks AppleGoogleEtc.
We Want Our Fucking Headphone Jacks Back!!!!
There might be pick up in sales fourth quarter. (Score:2)
Verizon's CDMA system goes down at the end of the year, so someone will get to sell me a new one then. And maybe a new signal booster, given the way this house eats radio waves. I'll see what is on holiday sales.
I'll upgrade... (Score:3)
I'll upgrade when the magic smoke comes out. It's a 5S from Dec 2013. So far so good. The tablet I'm typing this on is from 2014. Works fine.
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adguard on ios works fine. I don't see ads. But there is one page, cnn.com, that wrecks my phone and tablet, it just flat-out heats up the device and usually loads in sections. It's almost as if they're running a cryptominer or something.
So now I got to fox and bbc.
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Good enough (Score:2)
It doesn't help that phone subsidies have gone (Score:2)
With pretty much every carrier doing away from the 2 year contract with higher service fees to subsidize your phone, it's little wonder people are holding on to their phones longer. It used to be you were dumb if you didn't upgrade your phone every 2 years because you didn't get a discount on service. Now that you get cheaper service but pay full price for the phone, it really takes a lot more for someone to need to upgrade.
The only issue now is that all phones don't have replaceable batteries. And with
Several variables factor into this (Score:2)
Cost is the big one. Apple learned this the hard way with their iPhone X.
Market saturation is another.
Lackluster variances from one model to the next. Most of the significant ones are negative.
( Headphone jack going MIA, non-removable battery, stupidly high costs of cellular / data plans )
To be honest, they make terrible phones. I would guess the majority use them as a portable computing or information
on demand device than they do as a phone.
Other than the ability to hardware disable ( switch ) the camer
Re: Several variables factor into this (Score:2)
"hardware disable ( switch ) the camera, mic and GPS"
I would pay for this, as would others. However I believe such hardware would be illegal to sell in the United States under (secret, but leaked) implementation regulations for Bill Clinton's CALEA law (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communications_Assistance_for_Law_Enforcement_Act).
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Cost is the big one. Apple learned this the hard way with their iPhone X.
No, they didn't. Apple doesn't care about sales of one model, they care about total sales. The iPhone X had a huge revenue, and at the same time Apple continued selling iPhone 8, 7 and 6, which are not exactly cheap.
Apple knows that if a phone costs $1,000, fewer people will upgrade, and people will hold on to it for longer. If you look at it not as a $1,000 phone, but as a $350 per year phone, Apple is doing alright.
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Commercial disposable society expectations v. real (Score:5, Insightful)
My last refrigerator lasted 27 years before I needed to replace it. My furnace, also, ironically, 27 years. I still have some 15 year-old computers still running. My cars are about a dozen years old. Heck, I have an IBM Selectric typewriter from the 1970s that still would work just fine, if I wanted to use it. If it's working, why replace it?
This suits me just fine. Being frugal is a worthy and in some cases, necessary for financial survival, trait and value. I've got more important things to spend money on than constant hardware replacement just to satisfy some dweeb's company's bottom line.
My smart phone is five years old, and works just as well as the day I bought it. Why would I replace it? To me, it's brand new! See me in another 10 or 20 years for that.
The dweebs are so out of touch with how real people live, and how the financial pressures the income inequality, sucking sound money drain to the top, affects real people.
Remember Tim Cook's expectation for everyone to replace their Apple computers every two years? Put down the joint, Tim.
BTW, if anyone reading this thinks, "you're just poor," well, my family is considered upper middle class, with a six figure annual income that supposedly places us in the top 5% of income earners. But that doesn't mean I'm going to be stupid with my money, stupid like Verizon or Apple would like me to be.
Re: Commercial disposable society expectations v. (Score:2)
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Re:Commercial disposable society expectations v. r (Score:4, Insightful)
You realise your "frugality" is almost certainly costing you money and damaging the environment unnecessarily right?
As pointed out below your 27 year old fridge was certainly cheaper to replace than to run.
The most obvious thing here is the 15 year old computer. A mid tier pentium 4 from 2004 is slower than a raspberry pi 3. Your computer is almost certainly drawing 300-500W. The raspberry pi uses around 1W at max load. It costs $38. It will thus pay for itself in around 650 hours (probably a lot less as your psu is probably incredibly inefficent). Unless you are using your computers in lieu of space heaters, this is a terrible idea.
Please actually do the maths, save money and help the planet.
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Oooh, trotting out the 'Save the planet" argument. That creepy little dig that's replaced "but God would want you to", or " our class of people don't do things like that".
Can't have the plebs not feeling guilty about something...
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My smart phone is five years old, and works just as well as the day I bought it.
My experiance has been that by the time I reached 5 years after buying my first andriod smartphone (a HTC wildfire S) it had gradually become less and less usable. I frequently got SSL errors in the web browser, apps that had previously worked fine randomly hanging, power button requiring unreasonable force to respond. The last straw was when I planned a trip to Canada and my research told my they were turning off their 2G networks and my phone didn't support the north american 3G bands.
I agree buying top e
You'll have to pry my Nokia N900... (Score:3)
...from my cold, dead hands. 10 years and still going strong!
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...from my cold, dead hands. 10 years and still going strong!
I would, but for some reason can't get your thumbs to budge....
I Know Why..... (Score:2)
Why should I upgrade my phone, when there are very few new features worth getting? I'll upgrade my when when real 5G becomes available, maybe next year. Or the year after that.
We are not morons (Score:2)
How often would you, yourself, change your phone out of your own pocket?
Why changing (not upgrading) is it works?
Well, good luck, phone companies, (Score:2)
Out of touch with their customers. (Score:4, Insightful)
When you ask manufacturers what they think people want they say "Thinner phones!" (thus justifying non-replaceable batteries and no headphone jacks).
When you ask consumers what they really want they say "Longer battery life. We don't care how thin it is"
And I guarantee you no one ever pleaded with a manufacturer to take away their headphone jack.
I find the newer phones to be less and less attractive. If I'm going to wait for that situation to improve it might be a long wait.
(And don't get me started on how Android keeps getting worse and worse.)
LTE is good enough (Score:2)
I just ran a speed test on T-Mobile in a major east coast city.
46.9 mbit down
36.2 mbit up
Ping 34 ms
I know LTE can go even higher.
5G? Who cares? Not me.
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5G? Who cares? Not me.
Exactly. Articles claiming people are holding off upgrading until 5G is available are silly. 5G top speeds will be difficult to achieve in the real world due to things like structures, humans...pretty much anything that exists. Early adopters will also take a big battery hit.
But this obscures an even bigger issue: what the hell do people NEED with all that extra speed? Are people really downloading multi-gigabyte files on their cell phones? Not likely. And while the hotspot idea would be a natural app
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"Waiting To Upgrade" (Score:2)
Yeah right. "Waiting To Upgrade" is sales-speak, implying people want to constantly ditch the phones they have right now. Perhaps many people are perfectly happy with the phones they have right now and just don't want a new one unless the current one breaks? "Waiting To Upgrade" sales-speak doesn't include that possibility.
Why upgrade? (Score:3)
Cell phones have arrived at a point where PCs (and their OS) have been for a while now. The "good enough" point. Windows 3.11 to Win95 was a huge leap. Win95 to 98 again. 98 to XP again, but XP to 7 was already a drag. 7 to 10 is still something a lot of people postpone to when they can't avoid it anymore. 7 is most definitely "good enough".
Phones have arrived there too, no later than 2014. You can do phone calls, you can text, you have a navigation system and you can play some games. Now what does the new one do that the old one cannot? And let's face it, gimmicks like a fingerprint sensor or face recognition are not worth half paycheck to the average consumer.
Less preloaded junk (Score:3)
Everyone is saying they want removable batteries, which is my #1. But the other thing that will force me to upgrade eventually is that I can't uninstall the preloaded apps that occupy 80% of the space on my phone. My Galaxy S5 has so many preloaded apps that unless I go through and manually delete junk files (I used to do that on Windows too, when Windows apps were crappy like Android apps are today and left files in temp folders all over the place.) just to install an upgrade. Most of the preloaded apps either never worked, or are abandonware. So eventually I will have to root my phone to get rid of that stuff, then it will be like a fresh new phone again! That should buy me a few more years. Hopefully, someone will make a phone with a replaceable battery and no notch again by that time.
Want people to upgrade? (Score:5, Insightful)
Here's a radical idea: give them what they've been asking for all along. Things like:
- Larger battery. Who wouldn't choose a phone that's 1mm thicker but has 50%-80% more battery life? I've never heard a single human exclaim "my phone is too thick and my battery lasts too long!"
- Quit removing useful ports and acting like people were demanding it. They weren't.
- Quit making the phone bigger and bigger just to say you've got a bigger screen than last year. People's hands aren't magically getting larger.
- Quit mandating useless, sub-par features (*cough* Bixby *cough*) and pretending it's an improvement. It's not.
- Quit charging hundreds of dollar more for a phone that adds 32GB or 64GB of flash over the base model. You could buy a high-end 1TB NVME SSD for the premium most phone makers charge for this.
- Stop making phones out of the most fragile substance known to man (glass). Yes, it looks pretty...for the few moments before it's covered in greasy fingerprints and subsequently shattered in a minor mishap. If people have to put cases on their phones because they're so fragile, what's the f-ing point of all that gorgeous glass? You only get to see it when you unbox it and when you trade it in.
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In addition to these reasons, from the iPhone side, I am waiting for them to drop FaceID. Or at least give a different option. Same reason I haven't updated my iPad.
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My Note 4 had a larger screen than any of the current phones, and at 16:9 was far more useful too.
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Can't have your cake and eat it too (Score:2)
The reason phones are slowing down is because the phones manufacturers make now are flat out stupid.
Do I need ML-managed animated poop emojis? No, I do not.
Do I want to play cool games on my phone? Sure! Wait, they expect me to run software that will guarantee the battery will drain in a couple hours, and be completely useless in 6 months, but not make it easily replacable? Yeah, I don't need cool games that badly. Ditto for ANY software that is heavy-resource.
Manufacturers have made devices that are p
Too expensive, no reason to update (Score:2)
As the marketing puff says ... (Score:2)
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I purchased a refurb Pixel 1 for $200. Besides gaming (which I have dedicated hardware for with superior games), there isnt much of anything a $1000+ flagship phone can do that this one cannot. So while not quite $100, it isn't far off on the grand scale of cell phone pricing!
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And that's the real reason for phone sales slowing down. Fact of the matter is most people use their phones for messaging, reading the news/the net in general, social media, some simple time-waster games here and there and the occasional photo. Now, since even the cameras on the lower end phones have become pretty decent, there really is no reason for anyo
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But Augmented Reality! It's the Next Big Thing!
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Agreed. Contrary to the article, I have no interest in 5G. I will probably wait until my current phone dies, because there's literally nothing in the new phones that makes me want one more than what I already have.
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That said, it was a better phone in many ways than anything made since:
- headphone jack
- HDMI output
- larger screen than any Note series phone since (due to narrowing aspect ratio)
- flat screen
- notch free screen
- replaceable battery
- SD card slot
- textured back with gri
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So your solution to internet malware is a possibly hackable system that can , over the air, brick people's phones. Brilliant!