


Robert X. Cringely Weighs in on 2006 183
Simon80 writes "With the beginning of a new year coming another set of 15 predictions from Robert X. Cringely as to how the tech world will shape up in 2006, preceded by a review of how his 2005 predictions turned out. Most of this year's predictions cover well known tech companies, with a few that are about specific technologies like WiMax, media center PCs, and VOIP."
Ah, the ABM treaty... (Score:4, Insightful)
About the only thing worth doing under 'Doze anymore is running certain peripherals, like the printer and scanner, that are fairly low-usage, with crappy FOSS driver support.
More intriguing, though, is exposing more people to the FOSS tradition of helping people without picking their pockets.
Not everyone is going to get all excited: plenty of users prefer the automatic-transmission feel of these commercial GUI offerings, but some will be seduced by the manual transmission sexiness of an operating system that doesn't leave the user stupider at logout than at login.
And, for the truly blessed, there is emacs...
Don't bet on Apple loosening their grip... (Score:4, Insightful)
It's also in my opinion the single most wrong speculation in the entire list. Apple has already demonstrated that they want to keep the system on Apple-only hardware. That's part of the reason for getting TPM chips in the hardware. Ultimately, they'll get hacked, but they'll go after it hard. No matter how much we all say we'd love it if they weren't, Apple is and will always be a hardware company and a company fiercely protective of their intellectual property.
Just look at how they treat rumors sites.
I think he's mostly right, though I can't comment on the financial rumors about TiVO & Google. However, betting on plasma TV Macs, pirated beige box Macs, or the "never gonna happen" pipe dreams of the dot-com era -- streaming video and network appliances -- is just a losing proposition. Until network technology improves significantly, streaming video portables are doomed (especially portables with only 802.11b access), and network appliances will never take off when cell phones, laptops, and desktops can do everything they do better.
Re:Don't bet on Apple loosening their grip... (Score:2)
That's not what's coming out of Apple's policy or technical rumor mills, where there are already whispers of various Dell models running 10.4 x86, etc.
Re:Don't bet on Apple loosening their grip... (Score:2)
Is that the release off of the developer machines, or the release that is intended for the just announced MacTels? It's could be a big difference, being that the developer machines are basically off-the-shelf hardware with all the bits you would expect on generic x86 hardware (like the BIOS). The new MacTels are custom hardware, with EFI. Given that, I wou
Re:Don't bet on Apple loosening their grip... (Score:2)
sPh
Re:Don't bet on Apple loosening their grip... (Score:2)
Loyalty, word of mouth and ease of switching (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Loyalty, word of mouth and ease of switching (Score:2)
However, they have to know releasing an Intel version will break this hardware/software relationship a bit. They've had an Intel version from day 1, why release now? Because it's now polished enough
Re:Loyalty, word of mouth and ease of switching (Score:2)
Yes, but. Actually, I have to wonder about that. Will they faill in love with a system that only half works and doesn't support their system/video card/camera/printer/scanner/whatever? Which is what I'd expect if you install OS X on "unsupported" hardware, as the article suggests.
Re:Don't bet on Apple loosening their grip... (Score:2)
'Twould seem to have nice legal side-effects, as well: "Your Honor, the EULA saith, with the utmost clarity: 'Thou shalt not run this software product on any unclean hardware, yea, even that which is despised of Steve Jobs, having been touched by the finger of evil extended from that pit o
Re:Ah, the ABM treaty... (Score:5, Funny)
well, i don't like nazi/spelling whores as much as the next guy, but i thing you forgot the "v" and the "i" in that atrocious spelling of yours
Re:Ah, the ABM treaty... (Score:2)
Re:Ah, the ABM treaty... (Score:2)
Re:Ah, the ABM treaty... (Score:2)
Printers and scanners work fine as long as you buy them from companies that actually support open source, like HP [sourceforge.net]. My last printer and scanner were from Canon, and they worked fine as well.
Re:Ah, the ABM treaty... (Score:2)
This is not a troll: I'm a happy Gentoo/GNUEmacs user. Hardware drivers are unsexy, and will probably never be as good in a FOSS setting, although they'll converge over time.
Re:Ah, the ABM treaty... (Score:2, Offtopic)
Re:Ah, the ABM treaty... (Score:2)
Cygwin is not a "version of Linux". Cygwin provides a fairly miserly bash implementation and a bunch of common UNIX programs (cp,mv,ls,ssh,ln,du,rm [...]).
'Linux' is a kernel development [kernel.org] project. The GNU/Linux operating system is the combination of this Linux kernel, and a bunch of Unix-like tools, a few of which are available to you in Cygwin. A "Distribution of Linux" (as they're commonly referred to
Re:Ah, the ABM treaty... (Score:2)
Whether it implements the full Linux distribution or just does the shell - it is a great way to introduce Linux to Windows people and it gives me everything I need in order to produce programs that will work under Linux on a Windows box.
Me thinks you are being a bit too literal.
Re:Ah, the ABM treaty... (Score:2)
The Linux kernel is a tiny part of a Free Software system. Many of us manage to run 100% Free Software systems without Linux. Of the five machines I use regularly, three r
Re:Ah, the ABM treaty... (Score:2)
Windows users have no interest in looking under the hood. The hobbyist model sells OSX as an alternative to Linux, not Windows.
Re:Ah, the ABM treaty... (Score:2)
Wrong.
There are a goodly portion of Windows users who like to understand their OS: folk who sort out the C: Drive and play with the command prompt or fill MSDN and MVPs.com with all sorts of odd things.
They don't use Linux because Linux doesn't do what they need it to do--or, to put it another way, because it's too different from Windows and not enough better to re-learn what they k
How soon before someone releases MacKnoppix? (Score:2)
A run-from-cd (or run-from-dvd, more likely) version of MacOS has to be technically possible. How long before someone hacks one up and it starts to get noticed around the 'net? What will Apple's response be? Of course their official response will be 'stomp on it hard', but what will their real response be?
A disk which you could shove into a vanilla PC which gave users a flavour of MacOS but which for some reason couldn't be fully installed onto the PC and so always ran at 'run-from-cd' speed would actuall
Re:How soon before someone releases MacKnoppix? (Score:2)
I just need to boot OSX to create the OSX binaries of software, then it's off again (just don't like the GUI, sorry zealots). A run from CD that could be run on a reasonably powerful box would be ideal.
Re:Ah, the ABM treaty... (Score:2)
Lots of Apple, Google and No Linux? (Score:3, Interesting)
Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:That will not happen (Score:2)
J. Random & Company develops hardware comparable to Apple's in the sense that it's fancy and high quality and all there. The Company also releases its own distribution of GNU on Linux that is decently complete and usable: Perhaps somewhat like Ubuntu, but they will invest mone
Re: (Score:2)
Re:That will not happen (Score:2)
If you pick something like Suse 10 or Mandriva, then it is a very different story. Thing do just work. I am typing this on Suse 10 and it is the best operating system I have ever used.
I can easily view all video formats on the market, play music, read email, write documents, log-into my remote servers, share files on windows and unix networks, burn CDs and DVDs, print. I just don't get wha
Re:Lots of Apple, Google and No Linux? (Score:5, Informative)
Walmart has tried every varient of OEM Linux known to man and not one has caught fire. There is little or nothing out there to drive aftermarket sales, a poison pill in the retail market.
Re:Lots of Apple, Google and No Linux? (Score:2)
Linux on the corporate desktop != Linux on the home user desktop !- Linux on the gaming desktop.
What would be a "great year" for Linux (Score:2)
I'd be interested to hear from /.ers just what everyone thinks would actually amount to a "great year" for Linux on the desktop.
I'm a bit of a Mac fanboy, but from my perspective, Linux had a pretty damn fine year in 2005. Ubuntu is a story all by itself, and there are plenty of other distros that had a good ride last year (Mandrake and Mepis come immediately to mind). KDE got visionary and Gnome got even leaner. SUSE opened up.
There were some big deployments, and it's now obvious that developing nations
Re:Lots of Apple, Google and No Linux? (Score:2)
I see all sorts of ads in the local paper for local computer shops and resellers selling those "all-in-one" packages (the ones that have printer, scanner, internet and a big pile of software). They almost always include some funky office suite and other programs (generally something I have never heard of outside the ads).
Why not include OpenOffice instead of this other one (which probobly costs them money they could save
Re:Lots of Apple, Google and No Linux? (Score:2)
Might as well be a Palm Reader (Score:5, Insightful)
I was right when I said AMD would give Intel further fits.
Two huge companies in dead competition would give each other fits? Obviously that is bound to happen on some degree over the course of the year. Also, he never really defined "fits", just some kind of conflict that is bound to happen when two major corporations are competing in the same market.
I predicted the RIAA would continue to sue music lovers and they have, despite the fact that it doesn't help anyone and actually hurts everyone to do so.
What would the RIAA do, stop suing? I don't know of any other way to prosecute violators of copyright law besides offing them like the mafia. Again vague and full of common sense.
Cringely (the author) did make some great predictions that came true this year (e.g. PS3, VoIP, TV networks embracing video downloads). I think I might have read his article last year and enjoyed it also. Personally, I would like to see a lower accuracy rate and less vague predictions. However, most people will be fooled like customers to a palm reader
Re:Might as well be a Palm Reader (Score:2)
Cringly's predictions remind me of something I heard years ago on a radio talk show. The host would save all the psycic predictions he could find during the year and grade them. Not surprisingly, most of them had few, if any correct. However, one of his frequent callers scored over 80% with predictions like, "The results of this year's presidential election will astoni
Re:Might as well be a Palm Reader (Score:3, Interesting)
"I was right when I said AMD would give Intel further fits.
Two huge companies in dead competition would give each other fits? Obviously that is bound to happen on some degree over the course of the year. Also, he never really defined "fits", just some kind of conflict that is bound to happen when two major corporations are competing in the same market."
How can you assume that they would continue to be competitive throughout the
Usually the idea of a business is to make money, (Score:2)
It's all about trying to slam the lid on Eric Raymond's Magic Cauldron.
Re:Might as well be a Palm Reader (Score:2)
Apparently, you missed GP's point. Your "what if" questions could be turned into interesting and at least semi-specific predictions. As it stan
Re:Might as well be a Palm Reader (Score:5, Interesting)
If this predictions are so easy to make because they are based on common sense, I would like to see your predictions for the future. Pick out two or three issues or events going on today, and choose either "Status Quo" or "Change". Also give the reasons why you made your choice -- then next year we will know if you won or lost by chance or your understanding of the situation. If you are feeling extra common-sensical, you could predict exactly what the change would be in the case that you predict change.
Or, perhaps you are arguing that predicting "Status Quo" is a safe, common-sensical prediction, because people are creatures of habit and avoid change at all costs. That would be common-sensical
If that's the case, it's no big deal if Cringely correctly predicted "Status Quo". That's a common sense, safe bet. If we really want to see how good Cringely is, we should look at where he predicted change, and how close his prediction was to what the world actually changed to.
If you predict change for any human or group-driven project, such as a company, you are essentially saying that the decision makers will apprehend the future as being so bad that they will decide to change their paradigm for moving forward and take a risk on a new plan. It's a pretty bold prediction to make.
Re:Might as well be a Palm Reader (Score:2)
Re:Might as well be a Palm Reader (Score:2)
OK, but why are they pointless? Are they pointless because they are so easy to get right? If that's the case, why are they so easy to get right?
Re:Might as well be a Palm Reader (Score:2)
Google will continue to roll out new products and services
RTFA and dream of the day you are this good.
adéu,
Mateu
PS I predict that Cringely will continue to roll out new predictions and columns
Oh yeah? (Score:3, Funny)
It was cancelled due to unforseen circumstances.
One prediction I hope he gets right... (Score:5, Funny)
We can only hope.
One wrong, at least. (Score:5, Interesting)
I already know this one is wrong. Page believes in keeping the stock priced out of the range of the average investor as a way of preventing the company from becoming too focused on the individual quarterly returns. They're not splitting, plain and simple.
Re:One wrong, at least. (Score:2)
One Laptop per Child (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:One Laptop per Child (Score:2)
Those aren't the numbers that matter for 2006. The main reason operating system market share matters is because people build products on top of these platforms. The buying power of the target recipients of these $100 laptops is very low because they are poor and they are children.
The OLPC project will be very influential on the future, however. The main goal of the project in t
Re:One Laptop per Child (Score:2)
Two things:
Comment removed (Score:5, Informative)
Re:One Laptop per Child (Score:2, Insightful)
Poor and uneducated people need access to information and education before they can realize more effective food production, stable currencies, peace through trade, a fair legal system, and reduced gov
Re: (Score:2)
Re:One Laptop per Child (Score:4, Interesting)
"Those countries don't need computers and universities. They need food, stable currencies, no war, a fair legal system, and less state, taxes, regulations, and corruption."
[Sorry, I'm normally a lot more restrained than this, but I'm just sick of responding to this same stupid point time after time. Mod me down if you must.]
What is this, the latest Fox news fabulum? I'm going to go crazy if I have to answer this stupid, binary logic many more times. There is absolutely nothing insightful or informative about this half-formed ignorance.
Look, every time someone suggests computers might be useful in the developing world, some pontificator comes out with the observation that they need some shopping list of 'more pragmatic' things, like food, housing etc. But how the fuck, I would like to know, is that ever going to happen if the country doesn't have an educated populace and a decent communications infrastructure? And how the fuck are they going to do that in the modern age without ubiquitous computer technology?
It makes me sick to see people who don't seem to know jack shit about life in the developing world spouting these inane opinions. It makes me sicker when these same rationalisations actually get used to block the progress that some of us are trying to make in this regard. Do you know what it's like to sit down with the head of a national foreign aid program and to see him react with surprise when I suggested that development here might be made easier if they put some effort into improving education and communications capacity?
Next time someone trots out this stale old chestnut, please consider that it is, occasionally, possible to walk and chew bubble-gum, at thew same time. Hunger reduction, human rights, housing etc. can actually be accompanied - and saints preserve us, improved - with better education and communications.
Re:One Laptop per Child (Score:3, Insightful)
"Sorry, but I don't see the point in creating a charity that will give out *computers*."
Fair enough. I'll take a few moments to explain what I'm doing. Perhaps that will help.
I work in a Least Developed Country in the South Pacific. Unemployment is about 70% and the average monthly income runs around USD 50. There are 87 inhabited islands in this country, most of them volcanic and mountainous, spread over about 1000 miles of ocean. As a result of the lack of economic capacity and the incredibly difficul
Dangerous predictions? (Score:4, Funny)
I dunno Robert, with the hit rate you normally have on predictions, I don't think this is a prediction you want in your 2006 list!
No and Don't Know (Score:4, Interesting)
Ubuntu
4) Enough about Apple. Google will continue to roll out new products and services as it builds out its infrastructure for a huge push in 2007. They'll need money, of course, so I predict a supplemental stock offering timed with a 20-to-1 stock split. 2006 is a building year for Google.
I don't know on this one. By coincidence I was recently coddling, Yesh my preciousisess, my worn copy of Security Analysis: Principles and Technique [amazon.com] by Benjamin Graham, David L. Dodd, Sidney Cottle, Charles Tatham. This is the goto book on investment fundamentals, that guy Warrant Buffy, or something like that, you know the guy who owns the Hathaway shirt company, learned the basics of investment from this book. IMHO there is no way to go about investing without first coming to terms with the knowledge contained in 'Security Analysis: Principles and Technique'. But I'm unsure as to how B. Graham would have parsed Google stocks. In 60's parlance Google would be a go-go stock and might have been shunned by Graham. Also I'm unsure as to Buffet's take on Google. Does the Berkshire Hathaway fund hole any Google stock? Maybe Google will split when the Berkshire Hathaway fund splits. :)
Re:No and Don't Know (Score:2)
"Ubuntu"
I haven't kept up. How many millions of people installed Ubuntu in 05?
Re:No and Don't Know (Score:2)
Re:No and Don't Know (Score:2)
It depends on what he calls significant progress. If he is only looking at marketshare growing rapidly then he was right. If he was looking at a big vendor with an established channel getting behind desktop Linux then again he was right. (Novell Linux Desktop) [novell.com] Only if he predicted Linux taking a significant chunk of Windows share away would he be wrong. For that to have happened, desktop Linux would have had to grown
Re:No and Don't Know (Score:2)
Re:No and Don't Know (Score:2)
autopackage allows easy gui installation of programs from a single
the score card 1 year early (Score:5, Interesting)
all information that has been on the rumor sites for months.
2) The reason Apple changed its MacWorld announcements at the last minute was because the company sued little Burst.com a few days before, trying to invalidate the Burst patents. But since Apple sued Burst, Burst shares have gone UP by 30 percent. The market is rarely wrong. Suing Burst was an enormous mistake for Apple, casting a pall on their video strategy and potentially costing the company strategic alliances with networks and movie studios. Apple realizes this now and is struggling internally to find a way to change course and put a positive spin on the course correction. Apple will lose and Burst will win, and Apple won't be able to afford to wait for the courts to decide anything, since time is critical in staking out Internet video turf. I predict that Apple will eventually take a license from Burst, that is UNLESS SOME OTHER COMPANY (Google? Real? Yahoo?) doesn't snatch up Burst first.
mmmmaybe. but would apple jeapordise their macworld address in this timeline? do the head and the tail not talk anymore? doubtful..
3) But Apple WILL make some inroads against Microsoft. The new Intel Macs will run Windows XP unofficially, and Apple Support acknowledges that they are only days from running XP officially, too. So Apple finally has a solid argument why Windows-centric companies and homes should consider trying a Mac. The best case, though, says that Apple sells an additional million units, which aren't enough for Steve Jobs, so I see him going into a kind of stealth competition with Microsoft.
old news. been beaten here and on other websites to death.
4) Enough about Apple. Google will continue to roll out new products and services as it builds out its infrastructure for a huge push in 2007. They'll need money, of course, so I predict a supplemental stock offering timed with a 20-to-1 stock split. 2006 is a building year for Google.
bzzt! i doubt the google split will happen. they have lost traction on a few efforts last year, and are supposedly growing. diversity growth != profit ergo != rising stock prices.
5) Still no good news for Sun. Those Galaxy servers are very nice, but they aren't enough to support the company and Eric Schmidt is too smart (I hope) to bail out his old firm.
man. i hear a lot of fish in that barrel. sun has been on the hardware ropes for what, 3 years now?
6) IBM will get in trouble with its customers as it becomes clear that Sam Palmisano didn't learn much, if anything, from Lou Gerstner. Gerstner's fat-cutting is long forgotten, so all IBM knows how to cut these days is customer service.
*shrug* IBM is cost competitive in the low end.. they seem to be making money and are still on the short list of "laptops that just work"
7) Microsoft still sucks at security and users suffer for it. My best guess is they are planning on putting all this new technology in the "next" operating system, which seems to be yet another year behind schedule. The important question the world will soon be asking -- "Do we need another Windows operating system?" In 2006, Windows XP gets another service pack and/or facelift. Nothing more.
ZzZZzzzZZ... oh sorry you were saying something?
8) Sony's PS3 hits the market with a dearth of games. Howard Stringer loses his job, not because of the game problems but because he's undermined by the Japanese parts of his company. But there is good news for Sony, too. Interne
Re:the score card 1 year early (Score:2)
Here's my review of your scorecard:
So are you predicting that all these rumors will come true? Rumors aren't destiny you know. And there are other rumors that he didn't predict, note you.
Not a prediction nor a scoring of a prediction.
Re:the score card 1 year early (Score:2)
xbox [google.com.au] perhaps? Read here [pbs.org] for more why.
Re:the score card 1 year early (Score:2)
Except that IBM doesn't make or sell laptops any more [theregister.co.uk].
Did anyone else read this as... (Score:2, Funny)
For 2006 (Score:4, Funny)
Re:For 2006 (Score:2)
Plasma Mac? (Score:2)
Yeah. Apple plasma TVs. That's plasma, people. With Apple, with a Mac mini in a huge display.
When does the iPod nano with integrated, non-detachable domicile come out?
"Network Appliance" (Score:5, Funny)
My prediction of three things we'll see before "network computing" being the next big consumer computer market:
My take : Bob is taking too many gimmes! (Score:3, Insightful)
Agree but this doesn't really count. There has been so much talk of this on the rumor sites that it is just a "gimme."
2) The reason Apple changed its MacWorld announcements at the last minute was because the company sued little Burst.com a few days before, trying to invalidate the Burst patents. But since Apple sued Burst, Burst shares have gone UP by 30 percent. The market is rarely wrong. Suing Burst was an enormous mistake for Apple, casting a pall on their video strategy and potentially costing the company strategic alliances with networks and movie studios. Apple realizes this now and is struggling internally to find a way to change course and put a positive spin on the course correction. Apple will lose and Burst will win, and Apple won't be able to afford to wait for the courts to decide anything, since time is critical in staking out Internet video turf. I predict that Apple will eventually take a license from Burst, that is UNLESS SOME OTHER COMPANY (Google? Real? Yahoo?) doesn't snatch up Burst first. Here's something I've noticed lately: Big companies believe in patents as long as they are talking about THEIR patents. Because Burst is three guys in an office in Santa Rosa, companies like Microsoft and Apple tend not to take them seriously. They forget that Burst spent 21 years and $66 million developing that IP, and the company has code that is still better than anything else on the market -- code not even Microsoft has seen. Unless someone buys the company first, Burst is going to win this and eventually license the world. They are in the right, for one thing, and in practical terms they now have as much money for legal bills as any of their opponents. Apple can't win this one.
Agree. Courts seem to be understanding that more money for more lawyers does not make a large company more right than the little guy. Patent defense by little guys will become a growth industry.
3) But Apple WILL make some inroads against Microsoft. The new Intel Macs will run Windows XP unofficially, and Apple Support acknowledges that they are only days from running XP officially, too. So Apple finally has a solid argument why Windows-centric companies and homes should consider trying a Mac. The best case, though, says that Apple sells an additional million units, which aren't enough for Steve Jobs, so I see him going into a kind of stealth competition with Microsoft. Here's how I believe it will work. Apple won't offer versions of OS X for generic Intel hardware because the drivers and the support obligation would be too huge. But just as you can buy a shrink-wrapped copy of 10.4 for your iMac, they'll gladly sell you a shrink-wrapped Intel version intended for an Intel Mac, but of course YOU CAN PUT IT ON ANY MACHINE YOU LIKE. The key here is to offer no guarantees and only limited support, patterned on the kind you get for most Open Source packages -- a web site, forums, download section. and a wiki. Apple will help users help themselves. With two to three engineers and some outreach to hackers and hardware makers, Apple could put together an unofficial program that could easily attract two to three million Windows users per year to migrate their old machines to the new OS. Imagine the profit margins of three engineers effectively generating $300-plus million per year in sales.
This is a creative idea, but does not smell like a typical Apple/Jobs move. I'll disagree.
4) Enough about Apple. Google will continue to roll out new products and service
I have 3 Predictions.... (Score:2, Interesting)
#2. Bluetooth technology will suffer from new viruses..major viruses..nothing like the paris hilton fiasco. This will lead way to a technology that will make bluetooth obsolete. watch and see.
#3. SGI will file for bankruptcy. Mark It.
Yes these are harsh pre
Re:I have 3 Predictions.... (Score:2)
Huh? "Bluetooth technology" can't be affected by viruses any more than TCP/IP can. Bluetooth devices, maybe. There's absolutely no reason to scrap the technology due to poor implementations, though.
Still sticking with my predictions (Score:5, Interesting)
a) the US economy has way too much debt
b) there is no way they can pay it off without printing up tons of money
c) the US economy is extremely efficient which means the adjustment will almost certainly
be harsh and brutal
Some other notes:
1) the dollar survived the 1920's because currency was still backed by precious metals
2) the dollar survived the inflation of the 80's becuase there wasn't a lot of debt
3) neither 1 nor 2 apply today, so hold on for the ride of your life when it hits
Re:Still sticking with my predictions (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Still sticking with my predictions (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Still sticking with my predictions (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Still sticking with my predictions (Score:2)
Re:Still sticking with my predictions (Score:2)
There are a huge number of idiots talking about gold right now. Be careful who you listen to. The most insightful commentary I have found recently is from Paul Van Eeden [paulvaneeden.com]
Oh My (Score:2)
I'll make two comments on this, since this is in the realm of predictions:
1) You've made several predictions in one sentence, and once doesn't follow from the other. The U.S. economy may be in trouble. But that doesn't mean the dollar will change significantly. However, even if the U.S. economy does poorly, and the dollar tanks, that may not have significant impact on gold/silver/platinum
Re:Oh My (Score:2)
The trouble with gold is that it doesn't do very much. It just sits around and is shiney and pretty. If you are so inclined, you can make
Re:Oh My (Score:2)
Re:Oh My (Score:2)
Maybe they'll have contraction, maybe they'll have inflation. But either way there is less demand for the dollar, so gold goes up. Also, gold was $35/oz in 1970 - so who says it didn't take off. Plus, as you said they had to raise interest rates higher than 16%, but that is to get people out of gold back into dollars - and as I said they can't pull that off now because we have too much debt.
Re:Still sticking with my predictions (Score:2)
The interesting thing about the debt in the US economy is who is backing it, namely foreign investors. Like China and Japan. At the moment, they really don't want to see the US economy falter, as it would destroy thier investments, so they are doing everything they can to prop it up. This is why the revaluation of the yuan was such a big deal; nobody knew how far they were willing to go. It turned out that it was pretty conservative, and things continue to truck forward.
I think the problem is that in "re
Where's the champagne? (Score:2)
The general approach seems to be that 2006 wil
I want in on the fun (Score:2)
Re:"The market is rarely wrong" (Score:2)
Re:Can we get a Cringely Topic? (Score:5, Insightful)
it's probably been said a million times... (Score:4, Informative)
Why his every bowel movement makes the front page is anyone's guess.
Re:it's probably been said a million times... (Score:2)
Moreover, he has already addressed your "point" in this very forum, something he certainly didn't have to do: http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=00/09/15/01552
Re:Can we get a Cringely Topic? (Score:2)
At least The Powers That Be gave us a really easy way to ignore Jon Katz, who was just as irritating.
Though Cringely is buzzword-compliant alphabet soup as opposed to a broken record about Columbine... and you know just how much The Powers That Be LOVE those buzzwords.
Re:Can we get a Cringely Topic? (Score:2)
As for RSS... imo an RSS aggregator is an automated, user-controlled slashdot. Only without the comments.
Re:Can we get a Cringely Topic? (Score:5, Insightful)
CHRIST people are babies around here sometimes. +5 Informative my ass.
Re:Can we get a Cringely Topic? (Score:2)
Roland Piquepaille posting a regurgitation of Cringley's articles.
Just wait for it!
Re:ACRONYMANIA (Score:3, Interesting)
a) you are surprised he knows enough about anything to actually do something right
b) you are impressed that he knows how to spell RADAR properly
c) you think he is wrong and he shouldn't have used all-caps?
Technically RADAR stands for RAdio Direction And Ranging and should be in all caps, but it's so commonly used nowadays that maybe it's considered a normal word.
Re:ACRONYMANIA (Score:2)
Re:Here's an idea: (Score:4, Funny)
I thought we were talking about predictions, not miracles? :)
Re:Here's an idea: (Score:2, Funny)
You mean Slashdot improves its editing. :-)
Re:Network computing appliance. (Score:2)