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Top 5 Submerging Technologies Pinpointed 475

An anonymous reader writes "Computerworld makes its picks of five 'submerging' (i.e. dying) technologies, as the article asks 'Where are the review committees for obsolete technologies?' The picks, made by 'corporate IT managers and analysts', include Windows 9x, client/server computing and Visual Basic 6."
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Top 5 Submerging Technologies Pinpointed

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  • by bcolflesh ( 710514 ) on Monday October 20, 2003 @04:16PM (#7263784) Homepage
    I'd like to submerge 'corporate IT managers and analysts'.
    • by letxa2000 ( 215841 ) on Monday October 20, 2003 @04:21PM (#7263855)
      No kidding. Client/server is a dying technology? It might not be a buzzword that gets you automatic funding like it was in 1999, but it's not dying!

      • by Frymaster ( 171343 ) on Monday October 20, 2003 @04:23PM (#7263894) Homepage Journal
        It might not be a buzzword that gets you automatic funding like it was in 1999, but it's not dying!

        if you want funding now you have to be:

        1. enterprise
        2. personal
        3. proactively secure

        client server isn't dying - the server has become "enterprise" and the client has becom "personal"

        • That's especially funny since "enterprise" was originally supposed to mean (best as I could tell; nobody's really sure what it means) n-tier. But, all the PHB's out there want to think they're big and important too and don't like hearing that they don't need "enterprise-level solutions" (even when those save them money -- I've had a COO of an organization with 5 servers and 60 desktops all in one central site say "well obviously our organization needs an enterprise-level solution [for Directory Access]; cli

      • If client/server is dying, .NET is in for a hell of a rough ride :)

        I'd say the opposite - everyone's going back to the server because it's a complete 'mare to configure thousands of clients to do the same thing (users keep mucking it up)... the new stuff just uses the client as a souped up web browser.

        • From an end-user's point of view, it looks like the same old client-server. I disagree with them not calling the browser a "heavyweight client", because it is, even when the webapp isn't using all the bells and whistles of client-side javascript for layout, dynamic layering, and form validation. Its just a generic heavyweight client, not a specialized one, as the protocols are standardized.

          But as I was saying, the end-user sees themselves talking to a single server. www.something.com/someapp/... Nothin
  • Comment removed (Score:3, Insightful)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Monday October 20, 2003 @04:16PM (#7263788)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • why didn't they list their site as dead as soon at it is listed on slashdot..
    someone want to post the article here?

  • by James_G ( 71902 ) <jamesNO@SPAMglobalmegacorp.org> on Monday October 20, 2003 @04:17PM (#7263806)
    .. I think they need to include the computerworld.com webserver on the list..
  • this practically qualifies as a repost... 2 stories on dying technology in one day.
  • Article Text (Score:4, Informative)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday October 20, 2003 @04:19PM (#7263821)
    Submerging Technologies: Five That Are Sinking Fast

    These technologies are rapidly taking on water. Is it time to jump ship?

    Story by Gary H. Anthes and Robert L. Mitchell

    OCTOBER 20, 2003 ( COMPUTERWORLD ) - Most corporate IT organizations have steering committees to craft strategies for new technologies, chief technology officers to assess new products, and IT policies and procedures for developing and buying new hardware and software.

    But where are the review committees for obsolete technologies? Who's looking at what's in the data center, on desktops and in briefcases to see if they still make sense? Who's checking to see if spare parts, vendor support and employees with the right skills will be available next month--or next year?

    In most companies, no one is doing those things in any rigorous way, says John Parkinson, chief technologist for the Americas region at Cap Gemini Ernst & Young in Chicago. "I know of very few companies that actively manage sunsetting their IT," he says. "They think it will last forever."

    It doesn't, of course. But in most cases, there's no need to rush: "No tool is really outdated if it serves the needs of end users," says Eric Goldfarb, CIO at PRG-Schultz International Inc. in Atlanta. However, IT managers who wait too long may risk being forced into expensive last-minute changes to accommodate new technology initiatives as business needs change. That IP telephony call center application won't fly if you have to replace not only the private branch exchange but also update network cabling and those nonswitched, shared-media Ethernet hubs.

    Parkinson says that for each type of software and hardware installed, companies should have an estimated cost and date to replace it and an estimated cost to retain it. "You really should have this in the plan when you [buy], otherwise you won't know what ROI to expect," he says.

    Of course, some technologies need closer scrutiny than others. So Computerworld asked corporate IT managers and analysts what items they would put at the top of their lists. Some of them may justify an immediate rip-and-replace strategy; others should be put on your "endangered" list. Here are five submerging technologies to watch in 2004:

    1. WINDOWS 9x

    Why it's sinking: Can 92 million users be wrong? Yes. Declining support, reliability problems, security issues and incompatibility with new applications should drive the remaining installed base to Windows 2000 or XP.

    Credit: Red Nose Studio
    No obsolete technology is in wider use than the 9x versions of Microsoft Corp.'s operating system. "Windows 9x is getting to be pretty much unsustainable," says Tony Iams, an analyst at D.H. Brown Associates Inc. in Port Chester, N.Y. Indeed, many companies have already migrated to Windows 2000 Professional to gain the reliability of an operating system built on the more stable NT kernel.

    But eradicating Windows 9x won't come easy: IDC in Framingham, Mass., estimates that by year's end, there will still be 17 million Windows 95 installations, 48 million Windows 98 users and 27 million machines still running Windows Me. And the majority of those are business PCs, claims IDC analyst Dan Kuznetsky. "In the long term, it will probably be less costly to upgrade [to Windows XP], just because the NT kernel is much more reliable," he says.

    But what if your organization has waited? Should you go directly to XP, wait for the next generation (code-named Longhorn) or choose something else?

    Don't hold your breath for Longhorn: It isn't due to arrive until 2005 at the earliest. Linux is a widely touted option, but for many the idea of replacing thousands of Windows installations, training users on a new operating system and getting it to work with existing Windows applications is a nonstarter.

    Tom Pratt, information systems manager at Coastal Transportation Inc. in Seattle, says he has no plans to abandon Windows 98. The applications running on his boats won't run on anything else,
    • You forgot the chart (Score:4, Informative)

      by Davak ( 526912 ) on Monday October 20, 2003 @04:35PM (#7264056) Homepage
      This is the chart that concluded the article...

      Legend---
      Out - O:
      In - I:
      Why - Y:
      ----

      O: 900-MHz wireless LANs
      I: 802.11 WLANs
      Y:Early WLANs installed in warehouses and manufacturing floors won't work with 802.11b. Integration requires an upgrade.

      O:1U (1.75-in. high) servers
      I:Blade servers
      Y:They save space, eliminate cables and lower costs by sharing power supplies and connectivity.

      O:Color ink-jet printers
      I:Color laser printers
      Y:Color laser printers used to cost thousands; now they're well under $1,000. And color laser cartridge changes are less frequent--and less messy.

      O:CRT monitors
      I:LCD monitors
      Y:Flicker-free LCDs reduce eyestrain; the tubeless design saves on desk space, and the LCDs are less environmentally hazardous at disposal time than CRTs.

      O:Dot-matrix printers
      I:Ink-jet/laser printers
      Y:Dot-matrix printers are still good for multipart forms, but as volumes have fallen, prices have jumped above those of both ink-jet and low-end laser printers.

      O:Ethernet hubs
      I:Intelligent switches
      Y:Newer switches are inexpensive, a prerequisite for IP telephony, and typically support Simple Network Management Protocol for remote manageability.

      O:File servers
      I:Network-attached storage appliances
      Y:Why maintain file servers for shared storage when you can plug in a simple appliance?

      O:Floppy disks
      I:Flash disks, writable CDs, DVDs
      Y:What fits on 1.44MB of disk space anymore?

      O:Mac OS 9
      I:Mac OS X
      Y:Increased stability makes this upgrade a no-brainer.

      O:Modems
      I:Wireless LANs
      Y:With WLANs expanding across offices, public spaces and hotels, the modem, with its 56Kbit/sec. speed limit, is fast becoming the computing equivalent of an automobile's limited-service spare tire--used only in emergencies, at low speeds.

      O:PBXs
      I:IP telephony/call manager servers
      Y:With applications that require an integrated voice/data network already emerging, another long-term investment in a digital PBX at this point probably doesn't make sense.

      O:PDAs
      I:Cell phone/PDA hybrids
      Y:Free up your pockets! New hybrid models are finally reaching a size and price where a single, integrated device makes sense.

      O:Serial/parallel ports
      I:USB 2.0 ports
      Y:The ports won't go away on PCs anytime soon, but for new hardware, Universal Serial Bus peripherals are faster and often easier to set up.

      O:Token Ring
      I:Ethernet
      Y:Ethernet: Cheap and ubiquitous. Token Ring: Expensive, with limited vendor sources. Any questions?

      O:Windows NT servers
      I:Windows 2000, Server 2003
      Y:Support will disappear soon--as will all those security patches and updates.

      O:Zip drives
      I:Rewritable CD/DVD drives
      Y:CD-ROM drives are inexpensive and ubiquitous, and the media are cheaper.
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • True, but the article seems to have a corperate slant, and really how many corperations have Quake installed (that they know about).

        And with games such things are expected but corperations are notoriously slow to move to new tech especially with something as high cost as an OS.

        And programmers a lot of them at least especially ones that maintain a set of applications are slow to migrate, I wrote a tool for a company I worked for in vb6 and maintained it in that, problem is I hit some limits of what vb6 cou
      • Re:Article Text (Score:3, Insightful)

        by ameoba ( 173803 )
        The thing is, VB.NET isn't just an incremental upgrade to VB6 and Win2k/XP aren't incremental upgrades to win9x. They're very different systems using the same name.

        VB6 and VB.NET are -very- different things. Calling them the same language is almost absurd; not only was the syntax radically altered, but VB.NET should really be using a completely different set of libraries (the .NET API) to do nearly everything. The problem is that VB6 applications are becomming legacy apps (in the sense that Cobol apps a
    • Re:Article Text (Score:4, Insightful)

      by poot_rootbeer ( 188613 ) on Monday October 20, 2003 @05:12PM (#7264419)
      The original client/server scheme--where the application's visual presentation and business logic reside on the desktop, and data resides on a server--is an idea whose time has passed. It's being replaced by Web browser clients, n-tier systems and Web services.

      Um... duh?

      Isn't a Web service still based on a client/server architecture? Aren't n-tier systems just an extrapolation of the client/server model?

      The same stuff's still out there and going strong, they're just using different buzzwords to describe it.
  • by saddino ( 183491 ) on Monday October 20, 2003 @04:19PM (#7263829)
    MusicMatch [musicmatch.com]
  • I like how we are told to "click here" to see the top 5 dying technologies and then the headline reveals 3 of the 5 items.

    The other two are Tape Backups and SNA Servers, just in case you wanted the surprise completely ruined for you.
    • Tape backup is only dying because it's so damned expensive - my DDS3 cost more than twice the cost of the computer it's backing up... It'd better last 10 years or more for that kind of money.

      There's no backup solutions for good money - even DVD-R has only a 4.7GB capacity - I'd need to burn 3 a night (and it's enough hassle changing the tape every day, never mind swapping CDs).

      At work we backup only a small part (~1%) of the network - the cost to buy backup for more than that would have blown the entire
  • client/server? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by TedCheshireAcad ( 311748 ) <ted.fc@rit@edu> on Monday October 20, 2003 @04:21PM (#7263847) Homepage
    Client/Server architecture?
    Yeah...whatever.

    Because the internet (www especially) would work FINE if it was all p2p.
    • Because the internet (www especially) would work FINE if it was all p2p.

      But the only people who use p2p are Evil Content Pirates(tm)!!!! Hilary Rosen and Jack Valenti told me so!
    • p2p is a form of client-server! If I'm searching for stuff to download, I'm a client, and everybody else is a server. The concept has simple evolved. As for anything on the web, the client (browser) is just a much thinner client (from a business logic perspective) than the type they were referring to.
    • more than that. Saying Client/Server architecture is dying is like saying electromagnetics is dying. Does he not realize any OS is a server and all applications are clients to its services?

      n-tier architectures are basically n-client/server layers. Can someone say "buzz".

    • Re:client/server? (Score:3, Informative)

      by jon3k ( 691256 )
      No, thats not what they mean. The devil's in the details ya know?

      *FAT* client/server, whats also referred to as "2-Tier Intelligent Client" application architecture model is becoming outdated.

      An application is composed of three layers:
      - Application
      - Business
      - Data

      You have three basic architectual models:
      - 2-tier Intelligent Server
      - 2-tier Intelligenc Client
      - N-Tier

      In the intelligent server model, most of the processing is done on the server, and in an intelligent client model, most processing is done o
    • He was talking about thick client and database back endservers.
      He is pushing for NLayer. Where you have a think client on the desktop like a Web browser, a logic server like j2ee and then a database layer. I can see that for some large systems nlayer would work better than client server but I find client/server to have it's place.
      A P2P web could work. A dynamic scalable World Wide Web could be intersting. The trick would be how do you route the client to the right server? It might be interesting to see how
    • Re:client/server? (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward
      The original client/server scheme--where the application's visual presentation and business logic reside on the desktop, and data resides on a server--is an idea whose time has passed. It's being replaced by Web browser clients, n-tier systems and Web services.


      As they say client server architecture is being replaced by ummm client server architecture.

      oh and ink jets are both out and in. This is world class reporting if I have ever seen it

    • > Because the internet (www especially) would work FINE if it was all p2p.

      Psst. TCP/IP is a p2p design. Connections between nodes require no brokering by third parties, merely routing of packets. The protocol is symmetric regardless of who initiates the connection (accept() merely contacts the port of the originating peer and starts the server end of the handshake).

      Web apps are not the classic client-server design. The "thin" client of a web app is orthogonal to the server, being a general purpose
    • client/server implies fat client/server where processing the data happens client side.

      the web is not client/server by that definition.
  • According to them, token ring is JUST now going out? the last time i saw token ring was in my middle school computer labs. None of my professors could name a 'real' (ie in the industry) instance of it still being implemented.

    And it's just now dying?
    • Actually, when I left American Republic [aric.com] a year ago, 2 whole departments still used it. One seventh of their infrastructure.
    • And it's just now dying?

      That's what I thought until I worked for a big company.

      I did an inventory of how many printers we still have on Token Ring last week, and the count was about 1200 (versus about 3000 ethernet).

      We just finished phasing out TR for our corporate buildings a year and a half ago.
    • The first network I ever configured was a token ring... the cards for it were about $150 a piece new (we got them dirt cheap though) and the cables plugged into a whopping great hub that could double as a coffee table.

      We had to get specific cards, because the 2.0.12 kernel only had support for a single IBM card.... It worked though.
    • There is a PCMCIA Token Ring card that has been sitting on the shelf of a small local retailer for as long as I can remember.
  • by Malc ( 1751 )
    They've picked a particular version that has been updated to VB.Net. What do they expect? They picked Windows 95. an EOL product. Not much support these days for Linux kernel 1.0 either - did they mention that? Client/server computing is going strong - ever bought airline tickets over the web? No, I haven't RTFA it's already /.ed... maybe somebody could point out the reason for the article?
    • Re:VB6??? (Score:4, Funny)

      by TopShelf ( 92521 ) on Monday October 20, 2003 @04:29PM (#7263962) Homepage Journal
      Well, the title of the article was supposed to be "5 Technologies That Our Advertisers Want You To Replace With Their Latest & Greatest, Very Expensive and Awe-Inspiring Technology." But that took up too much space...
    • Re:VB6??? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Daniel Dvorkin ( 106857 ) on Monday October 20, 2003 @04:40PM (#7264106) Homepage Journal
      Yeah. I also don't know whether to be disturbed or amused that "Windows 9x" and "VB6" -- i.e., specific, not very good instances of particular products from a particular company -- are classed as "technologies" along with as vast a category as "client-server computing." It's kind of like saying "Fuel injection and the 1998 Ford Taurus are both major automotive technologies." No, one's a technology; the other is a brand name. And when we can't tell branding apart from innovation, we've got a problem.
      • Re:VB6??? (Score:3, Insightful)

        by jmorris42 ( 1458 ) *
        Think about what Windows 9x really IS. What is happening is that DOS is finally dying and THAT is a big shift. And while is was silly to refer to the specific version of VB (the last one, Version 6) the bigger picture is that VB is also dying, a language/product line that powered most of the corporate world's interally developed applications for well over a decade. VB.net's only connection to VB is the brand name Microsoft is trying to leverage.

        My problem with the article is the barely concealed sales p
  • Thin clients still make a great deal of sense to deploy. Point-of-sale, inventory, universities, libraries, kiosks, and pretty much any other single-purpose/limited-purpose configuration particularly where a large number of machines are deployed with identical configurations demand client/server setup.

    I'd argue we'll see even more of this when Microsoft's .NET initiative takes hold. Their plans will make it very easy for businesses to run supercomputers and lease time out to other businesses or even hom

  • Tape Gone? (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Davak ( 526912 ) on Monday October 20, 2003 @04:26PM (#7263923) Homepage
    Why it's sinking: Tape is cheap, but disk technology is closing the cost gap. For day-to-day backups, disk-to-disk systems that use inexpensive ATA technology make sense.

    To archive, what last longer... tape or a hard drive?

    I think the majority of people in the business are using hard drives as back up devices now... so tape may very well be out. We know CDRs die sooner than expected... do hard drives sitting on a shelf store better?

    Of course, I am paranoid. I still hard drive to hard drive backup and download my database from work to home weekly.

    I still wonder if tape is better for archiving though.

    Davak
    • Re:Tape Gone? (Score:3, Interesting)

      by wankledot ( 712148 )
      Because $ per MB, tape is way ahead still, is significantly smaller, and hold up to transportation and movement better.

      As far as shelf-life goes, that's a good question. will a tape sitting on a shelf fare better than a hard drive after 10 years? I don' t know.
    • Tape is hardly dying. Especially since, as the article states, "alternatives just aren't well-known yet."

      To the best of my awareness, most large enterprises have some kind of massive tape backup system for disaster recovery. Replacing that kind of infrastructure is tricky and worrisome -- any problems in the system can have horrible consequences.

      If you're a big bank or insurance company, your disaster recovery plan is probably the last place you want to replace old technology with new for archiving da

    • HD cost is quickly dropping to similar prices as tape...HD is definately much faster...and tape only has a recommended shelf storage life of 6 months (the tape lasts longer than that, but that's the suggested maximum time to expect before data degredation)
    • Even if CD-Rs don't last a long time, I use them at a local business where a new backup is created every few days. It doesn't matter how long the CD-R lasts, because it goes in the trash can in pieces within a month anyways because old backups are useless in my case.

      We're considering moving to DVD-R for obvious reasons.

  • Most of the dying technologies identified in the article and its sidebar are obvious (dot matrix printing? Zip drives?) but I did find one item intriguing: it's suggested that color laser printing is replacing color inkjet.

    Almost everyone I know has bought a color inkjet printer (even if they didn't really want it: "it came free with a 4-pack of nine volt batteries"). Can anyone report on *home* use of a color laser printer?

  • ..is submerged apparently. maybe the admin read the article, and thought he'd turn off that bit of client server technology that is apparently dying.....
  • Disk drives replacing tapes? Ha. I could see flash RAM modules doing it when (not any time soon) they become cheap enough. There's more to backup than cost per megabyte. Would you be comfortable having a bunch of disk drives with critical data stored off in a remote location for as long as a year and then popping them in and expecting them to run? DLT tapes, on the other hand, can be stored indefinitely. That is the key. Hard disks just aren't stable enough over time. DLT (and Flash RAM, probably) is.
  • The only accurate predictions I see is SNA

    Windows 95 will of course die but, it's stiil a few years away.

    VB6 will take even longer to be replaced that Windows 9X. Also, is it really being replaced? VB .NET doesn't really seem like a replacement to me.

    Client server isn't going to die, the client is changing that's all. Old app specific clients are being replaced by browsers but it will remain a client server architecture.

    Tape Backup - Step away from the crack pipe dude. Tape backup is going now where in
  • How exactly does someone drop tape storage? We back up 15-20 gigs each night and move it off site the next day. The only way I can think of to do this is with tape. Dumping from one drive to another works great, and we do that as well, however both drives are still in the same physical location. moving the data over the net to another box just isn't feasible, the bill to move 500 gig of data a month would kill us. Removable harddrives are just too fragile to be considered reliable back ups, the abuse I
    • We back up 15-20 gigs each night and move it off site the next day.

      If you think it would be tough to do this with hard drives, just wait until you are backing up and shipping out a terrabyte or more per day. In real networks where business continuity is important, tapes will always be there.
  • I would like to vote for the entire Visual Basic collection, not just version six. It's a huge pain to use!

    The only thing that keeps me sane while using it is the sight of that Cobol book on the shelf ...
  • How could they forget the Schnorkel [reference.com]?

    Just the name alone should qualify it as a winner..
  • ....it's called Tech jobs. At least here in Calif. I've been unemployed for almost 2 months and can't find an IT to save my life (or my rent).

    Tech jobs in general are disappearing or at least still in a funk. Maybe getting into IT was not that great of a career choice after all...
  • "But eradicating Windows 9x won't come easy: IDC in Framingham, Mass., estimates that by year's end, there will still be 17 million Windows 95 installations, 48 million Windows 98 users and 27 million machines still running Windows Me."

    People that think "Hey, it works just fine!" - nevermind the fact that it's a gaping security hole just begging to be exploited. :P
  • Backups (Score:5, Insightful)

    by sql*kitten ( 1359 ) * on Monday October 20, 2003 @04:34PM (#7264046)
    Although magnetic tape's cost per megabyte will give it a role in keeping archival records for years to come, better technologies and techniques are eroding tape's dominance for day-to-day backup and recovery tasks.

    Heh. Let me tell you why tapes are good. Tapes are very, very simple and well understood. You can repair a broken tape with a Stanley knife and Sellotape if you have to. Sure you might lose a few blocks, but with decent archiving tools (like cpio and bzip2) losing a file won't cost you the entire archive. If a tape drive fails, just replace it, easy.

    Now, when a hard drive fails, what're you going to do? Repair the platter? Transplant it to another hard drive? Just not feasible. And how're you going to store archives? Tapes are cheap and high density. Maybe you've moved buildings a couple of times and they've been kicked around, how certain are you HDs can be plugged back in and run? And they take more physical space too, and still cost more.

    Tapes aren't going anywhere anytime soon.
    • Heh. Let me tell you why tapes are good. Tapes are very, very simple and well understood.

      I never had a good time with tapes.

      If a tape drive fails, just replace it, easy.

      Easy and expensive.

      Now, when a hard drive fails, what're you going to do?

      Pull the drive, drop it in, and let the RAID stuff do it's stuff (and stuff :-).
    • Re:Backups (Score:3, Insightful)

      by repetty ( 260322 )
      All good points, except that... tapes suck.

      They're sensitive to their storage environment, they stretch, they need to be rewound, they are sequential (SLOW, SLOW, SLOW!)

      Already, for home users and small businesses, tapes are more expensive than hard drives. Soon, that will be the case for large businesses, too.
    • Re:Backups (Score:5, Interesting)

      by pjrc ( 134994 ) <paul@pjrc.com> on Monday October 20, 2003 @06:18PM (#7265083) Homepage Journal
      Now, when a hard drive fails, what're you going to do? .... Transplant it to another hard drive?

      Actually, a co-worker where I used to work did exactly that!

      I believe he was upgrading some part of his PC and got the power connected backwards (loose socket on the drive perhaps). Or maybe something else caused it, but whatever it was the electronics on the drive were ruined, he didn't have a backup and the data on the drive was quite important.

      So he went and purchased another drive, and actually ended up buying 2 or 3 drives that claimed to the same model. Lucky for him the drive wasn't that old, and despite there being a couple different versions of the drive with the same model number but different electronics, he got one that had the same board.

      He desoldered the circuit boards from both drives and installed the electronics from the good one into the dead one. It actually worked. He managed to boot the computer up and copy all his files to one of the servers on the network. He then threw both drives away and installed one of the drives with the different circuit board, reinstall the OS and other stuff and copied his data back from the server.

  • Comment removed (Score:4, Interesting)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Monday October 20, 2003 @04:35PM (#7264062)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • The problem with Zip wasn't so much the cost of the drive, it was the way they kept control on the media.

      While I was waiting for aftermarket ZIP disks to come down in price like floppies, cheap, fast and reliable, CDR/W happened.

      Now that I have 8cm cdr's and CF, I don't need any other removable media at all.
      I even bought laptops without floppy drives finally.
    • Name a product on which Iomega hasn't screwed the pooch. I have a Zip100 and a DittoMAX tape drive. I was lucky and the Zip didn't develop a click of death, but that stupid DittoMAX has been crap from day one. I barely worked under NT; required a second rev of the interface card to work properly. Getting it to work under FTape was a complete pain in the butt, and really brittle. I got it working under the 2.0 kernels, but it hasn't played nice since. I should've gotten a Travan or Seagate tape drive,
      • Iomega can rot in Hell for all I care. Shitty hardware and ridiculous price schemes.

        First, they're already in Hell - or Utah, at least (which, for our purposes, we will assume similar).

        Second, you do know that SCO is located in Utah, don't you? And so, what can we derive from these two facts?

        It is clear that Utah-based companies have extreme trouble finding qualified people to run their organizations, seeing that Utah is an equivalent to Hell. As such, anyone who invests in a company that is headquartere

  • COBOL, Fortran, mainframes, tech jobs, on-shore IT managers...

    The list is long, the night is short. Run, lemmings, run! :)

    Rb
  • Stan:You know, I learned something today. I learned that maybe, color laser printers are better than injet printers. Also, tape backups are gay.

    Kyle:Yeah...[concerned] You know, it seems like something's still not right. [camera pans to BSD]

    Cartman:Yeah, something feels...unfinished [drum roll]

    Stan:Wh-what could it be? [the drum roll heads for a climax]

    THE END

    BSD:(Yee he hee!) [end credits roll]

  • Other boats cruising with a lot of ballast:
    1. IP traffic on all ports except 80 or 443.
    2. IPv6
    3. IPSec
    4. XHTML 2.0
    5. Bluetooth
    6. IA-64
  • Of course we should abandon all our old software that still works and buy new software; this generates more income for the software vendors! Win98 SE is a case in point; I have a LOT of software that runs on Win9X but not on NT/Win2K/XP. And a lot of hardware for which no NT/Win2K/XP drivers were ever written. If the PC and software I've got are doing the job, why should I replace them? 'cause they're insecure? Then put them behind a firewall! It's not as if XP is perfectly secure either!
  • by Ars-Fartsica ( 166957 ) on Monday October 20, 2003 @04:41PM (#7264125)
    Someone alert the nearly 1 billion web users worldwide.
  • by Shimmer ( 3036 ) on Monday October 20, 2003 @04:49PM (#7264194) Journal
    ... or "submerging", whatever that's supposed to mean.<g>

    I work for a company that builds business software. We have big projects building N-tier apps with "rich clients" on both .NET and Java. HTTP and HTML are wonderful, but they are not the solution to every problem. In some cases, people need GUI behavior that is just too difficult to get through a browser. For example, just try editing a grid of data in a browser. The web is not made for that sort of activity.
  • Dot matrix printers? Token Ring? Windows?

    It's like the 80s all over again!!!

    (By the way, a recent Slashdot survey confirms: Windows is dying.)

  • In light (no pun intended) of these revelations, I thought I'd post few of my own predictions of which technologies will "submerge" in the future.

    Black and White TVs: A lot of these beasts are still out there but they'll gradually continue to be replaced by color TVs. HDTVs you ask? Don't hold your breath - they are still too pricey and will be for few more years. You are better off going with a regular color TV for now - HDTV is a nonstarter.

    Cars from the 80s and early 90s: You may not believe it but t
  • WAP (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Nexum ( 516661 ) on Monday October 20, 2003 @05:10PM (#7264393)
    My vote would be for WAP.

    Does anyone remember when it was going to be the next great thing - it'll revolutionise the world, we'll tak the internet with us on our phones and PDA's! Wow!

    Hmm, someone didn't think that one out too well.

    WAP is dying as fast as it appeared.
  • by tarsi210 ( 70325 ) * <nathan@@@nathanpralle...com> on Monday October 20, 2003 @05:59PM (#7264894) Homepage Journal
    • Win9x: For most of our hardware, nothing else makes sense. Our budget (small biz -- 20 employees) doesn't let us upgrade that often. Personally, I run Windows only when I absolutely have to, and I certainly am NOT going to run it on the latest hardware. Hence, Win9x.
    • Client/Server: You know what? It's not dead, especially for smaller installs. Sure, IBM and other greats can't justify having an app that has to be installed on every darn workstation or has to have heavier clients (I dislike 'fat', it implies bloat.) We don't cater to 300 workstations, we cater to 4 or 5. C/S is still the way for us and will be for ages.
    • Tape Backup: Because you'll never convince the PHB that hard drives are just as reliable. Mind you, when the boss buys Maxtor POS drives, what do you expect?
    • 1U (1.75-in. high) servers: What in hades do I need a blade for? We add services once, maybe twice a year. We have all of 10 things in the rack...maybe. 1Us are still important for us.
    • Color inkjet printers: How often do I print code in color? Reports in color? ANYTHING in color? Rare enough to not justify the laserjet price, that's how not often.
    • Ethernet hubs: Intelligent blah, blah, blah VOIP blah, blah, blah. Anyone else tired of this? When my fly gets voice command, folks. That's when I'll care.
    • PBXs: Just bought one a few years ago. Have no interest in spending money on something that isn't broken and won't be for years.
    • PDAs: This is a case of Last Mile Land out here. I don't even HAVE a cell phone because I can't get a signal -- no towers near enough. A PDA would be nice, but Xmas presents just don't come that large usually.
    • Serial/parallel ports: Nothing quite as reliable or easily configured as talking to a simple, straightforward port that doesn't give you any guff.
    The rest of the predictions are expected and agreed upon. These are just ones I don't see migrating from anytime soon, and I'm sure lots of other people could make similar lists. Does that mean we're against progress? Hell no. It just means that we'd prefer if those vendors kept their "Convert Now!" pressure down until we damned well are ready to convert and not before. Some pressure is good...keeps us all looking at the new possibilities. But I don't need some jackass breathing down my neck about technologies (VOIP) that will make no sense in our corporation for ages to come yet. I also don't need vendors dropping support for "legacy" systems just because they came out with WhizBang Product 2.0.
  • by Jerk City Troll ( 661616 ) on Monday October 20, 2003 @11:44PM (#7267528) Homepage

    The article mentions Windows 9x as dying technology. No doubt about that. But the article makes this statement:

    Can 92 million users be wrong? Yes. Declining support, reliability problems, security issues and incompatibility with new applications should drive the remaining installed base to Windows 2000 or XP.

    They make this prediction that these 92 million users are going to be driven for various reasons to Windows 2K/XP. What's funny about this is that the very same article then goes on to number two...

    Two-tier computing with fat clients had its day, but there are now better ways to distribute data and computing power for flexibility, ease of maintenance and business continuity.

    So if they predict this mass drive from Old Windows (tm) to New Windows (tm), why then tell us that 2-teir architecture with fat clients is dead? Windows is the fattest of the fat. What a silly contradiction. Of course, they give absolute minimum treatment to Linux with lame excuses as to why it isn't or won't be adopted.

    A few other silly things about this article... Dot-matrix printers being replaced with laser or ink yet? This is either a "no shit, Sherlock" or it's a "never will happen." There's a LOT of dot-matrix printers out there that are used on carbon paper for instant duplicates. You can't do that with other types of printers without printing multiplesheets. Dot-matrix is also better for populating forms that can otherwise be filled out by humans (on the same carbon paper, btw). So, this article is either stating the obvious or dead wrong on this point. Useless.

    Next, they mention CRTs will be replaced with LCD displays. I would argue that we'll see OLEDs which are cheaper to manufacture and higher quality than LCD displays long before LCDs really hit the same volume as CRTs. This is a nah-uh.

    As for file servers being replaced by small storage appliances... uhm, I think they missed the point.

    I cannot believe this article got posted to Slashdot. It's the most absurd thing I've ever seen. It was written by some poor schmuck who has no clue and is struggling to write to save his job. The simple trick here is to write something that'll spark controversy or something along those lines... utterly pointless, obvious, or outright wrong.

    And here I am wasting my time.

In practice, failures in system development, like unemployment in Russia, happens a lot despite official propaganda to the contrary. -- Paul Licker

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