Researchers have found that soap bubbles can carry pollen grains and deposit them on flowers. CNET reports: "It sounds somewhat like fantasy, but the functional soap bubble allows effective pollination and assures that the quality of fruits is the same as with conventional hand pollination," said Eijiro Miyako, associate professor at the Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology and lead author of a study published in the journal iScience on Wednesday.

The researchers first worked out that soap bubbles could indeed carry pollen. They then tested out different bubble formulations and settled on lauramidopropyl betain, a compound sometimes used in shampoos, as a good vehicle. Now comes the fun part. The researchers used a bubble gun on a pear orchard, "producing fruit that demonstrated the pollination's success," iScience publisher Cell Press said in a release. They also tested out the use of a drone to direct bubbles at flowers, which proved to be an accurate way to deliver the bubbles. The early experiments are promising, but there are still some hurdles around figuring out the most precise way to aim the bubbles and how to deal with potential weather issues like rain or wind.

STERIS Corporation, a company that makes sterilization and other medical equipment, sent a letter to iFixit claiming their online database of repair manuals for ventilators and medical equipment violates their copyrights. Motherboard reports: "It has come to my attention that you have been reproducing certain installation and maintenance manuals relating to our products, documentation which is protected by copyright law," the letter said. The letter then went on to tell [Kyle Wiens, CEO of iFixit] to remove all Steris copyrighted material from the iFixit website within 10 days of the letter. As Motherboard reported in March, major manufacturers of medical devices have long made it difficult for their devices to be repaired through third party repair professionals. Manufacturers have often lobbied against right to repair legislation and many medical devices are controlled by artificial "software locks" that allow only those with authorization to make modifications.

"I'm disappointed that Steris is resorting to legal threats to stop hospitals from having access to information about how to maintain critical sterilization equipment during a pandemic," Wiens told Motherboard in an email. "No manufacturer should be stopping hospitals from repairing their equipment," Wiens said. "The best way to ensure patient safety is to make sure that equipment is being maintained regularly using the manufacturer's recommended procedures. The only way to do that is if hospitals have up to date manuals." With regards to the letter sent by Steris, Wiens said iFixit has not removed any material from its website. "We explained to Steris that what we did is a lawful and protected fair use under the U.S. Copyright act," Wiens said. "iFixit is protected by Section 512 of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, which allows online platforms to host content contributed by users provided they comply with the Act's requirements, which iFixit does," a letter to Steris from the Electronic Frontier Foundation on behalf of iFixit said.

The CDC says to wash cloth face coverings after "each use," which leaves room for interpretation. From a report: The CDC notes that wearing a mask is a precaution to keep from spreading virus-carrying respiratory droplets to others. The idea is that if everyone wears a mask, the likelihood of the droplets getting sprayed around is much less. Each new study only provides further evidence that wearing face masks is a crucial component in slowing the spread of coronavirus. One recent paper, published by the Institute of Labor Economics in Germany, showed that masks may reduce the spread of COVID-19 by 40 percent. This is great, because wearing a mask is an easy thing to do, even if it's a little irritating. But as we accept masks as just another thing that must be worn in public, I have to wonder: What's the appropriate number to own -- and how often should they be cleaned?

Personally, I have one mask, which I bought in March from a friend on Instagram. I wash it when it "smells dirty" by swirling it around in a takeout soup container filled with hot water and laundry detergent, then hang drying it on my fire escape/backyard fence. The CDC has official guidelines on washing cloth face coverings that I'm not properly following. According to the CDC, a reusable cloth mask (versus the blue surgical masks and N95s, which are disposable and should be saved for healthcare workers) are to be washed on the warmest appropriate setting in a washing machine, or hand-washed in a solution of bleach and water. The CDC also says a mask should be "washed after each use." What constitutes a "use" isn't defined, and so how often one should perform the chore of cleaning their mask(s) is a bit of a gray area.

An anonymous reader quotes a report from ABC News: It's been a rough year for the American psyche. Folks in the U.S. are more unhappy today than they've been in nearly 50 years. This bold -- yet unsurprising -- conclusion comes from the COVID Response Tracking Study, conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago. It finds that just 14% of American adults say they're very happy, down from 31% who said the same in 2018. That year, 23% said they'd often or sometimes felt isolated in recent weeks. Now, 50% say that. The survey, conducted in late May, draws on nearly a half-century of research from the General Social Survey, which has collected data on American attitudes and behaviors at least every other year since 1972. No less than 29% of Americans have ever called themselves very happy in that survey. The poll has revealed some other interesting findings. It says that the public is less optimistic today about the standard of living improving for the next generation than it has been in the past 25 years.

Americans are also less likely to report some types of emotional and psychological stress reactions following the COVID-19 outbreak, and about twice as many Americans report being lonely today as in 2018.

You can read the full study here (PDF).

An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Guardian: They may not be little green men. They may not arrive in a vast spaceship. But according to new calculations there could be more than 30 intelligent civilizations in our galaxy today capable of communicating with others. In 1961 the astronomer Frank Drake proposed what became known as the Drake equation, setting out seven factors that would need to be known to come up with an estimate for the number of intelligent civilizations out there. These factors ranged from the the average number of stars that form each year in the galaxy through to the timespan over which a civilization would be expected to be sending out detectable signals.

But few of the factors are measurable. "Drake equation estimates have ranged from zero to a few billion [civilizations] -- it is more like a tool for thinking about questions rather than something that has actually been solved," said Christopher Conselice, a professor of astrophysics at the University of Nottingham and a co-author of the research. Now Conselice and colleagues report in the Astrophysical Journal how they refined the equation with new data and assumptions to come up with their estimates. "Basically, we made the assumption that intelligent life would form on other [Earth-like] planets like it has on Earth, so within a few billion years life would automatically form as a natural part of evolution," said Conselice.

The assumption, known as the Astrobiological Copernican Principle, is fair as everything from chemical reactions to star formation is known to occur if the conditions are right, he said. "[If intelligent life forms] in a scientific way, not just a random way or just a very unique way, then you would expect at least this many civilizations within our galaxy," he said. Under the strictest set of assumptions -- where, as on Earth, life forms between 4.5 billion and 5.5 billion years after star formation -- there are likely between four and 211 civilizations in the Milky Way today capable of communicating with others, with 36 the most likely figure. But Conselice noted that this figure is conservative, not least as it is based on how long our own civilization has been sending out signals into space -- a period of just 100 years so far. The team add that our civilization would need to survive at least another 6,120 years for two-way communication. "They would be quite far away ... 17,000 light years is our calculation for the closest one," said Conselice. "If we do find things closer ... then that would be a good indication that the lifespan of [communicating] civilizations is much longer than a hundred or a few hundred years, that an intelligent civilization can last for thousands or millions of years. The more we find nearby, the better it looks for the long-term survival of our own civilization."

Dr_Ish shares a BBC report: A cheap and widely available drug can help save the lives of patients seriously ill with coronavirus. The low-dose steroid treatment dexamethasone is a major breakthrough in the fight against the deadly virus, UK experts say. The drug is part of the world's biggest trial testing existing treatments to see if they also work for coronavirus. It cut the risk of death by a third for patients on ventilators. For those on oxygen, it cut deaths by a fifth. Had the drug had been used to treat patients in the UK from the start of the pandemic, up to 5,000 lives could have been saved, researchers say. And it could be of huge benefit in poorer countries with high numbers of Covid-19 patients. The UK government has 200,000 courses of the drug in its stockpile and says the NHS will make dexamethasone available to patients. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said there was a genuine case to celebrate "a remarkable British scientific achievement", adding: "We have taken steps to ensure we have enough supplies, even in the event of a second peak." Chief Medical Officer for England Prof Chris Whitty said it would save lives around the world.

schwit1 shares a report from The New York Times: As poor countries around the world struggle to beat back the coronavirus, they are unintentionally contributing to fresh explosions of illness and death from other diseases -- ones that are readily prevented by vaccines. This spring, after the World Health Organization and UNICEF warned that the pandemic could spread swiftly when children gathered for shots, many countries suspended their inoculation programs. Even in countries that tried to keep them going, cargo flights with vaccine supplies were halted by the pandemic and health workers diverted to fight it.

Now, diphtheria is appearing in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. Cholera is in South Sudan, Cameroon, Mozambique, Yemen and Bangladesh. A mutated strain of poliovirus has been reported in more than 30 countries. And measles is flaring around the globe, including in Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, Central African Republic, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Nepal, Nigeria and Uzbekistan. Of 29 countries that have currently suspended measles campaigns because of the pandemic, 18 are reporting outbreaks. An additional 13 countries are considering postponement. According to the Measles and Rubella Initiative, 178 million people are at risk of missing measles shots in 2020. The risk now is "an epidemic in a few months' time that will kill more children than Covid," said Chibuzo Okonta, the president of Doctors Without Borders in West and Central Africa. As the pandemic lingers, the W.H.O. and other international public health groups are now urging countries to carefully resume vaccination while contending with the coronavirus.

Later this year, the International Space Station will receive a new and improved toilet system designed to bridge the gap between current lavatorial space tech and what humans will need to make extended visits to, say, Mars, in comfort. Space.com reports: It has a fancier name, of course; officially, the commode is NASA's Universal Waste Management System (UWMS). The launch is targeted for no earlier than the fall, a NASA spokesperson confirmed to Space.com, although the agency is still determining what spacecraft will carry the new plumbing up. The toilet currently on offer on the U.S. side of the space station was designed in the 1990s and based on its shuttle counterpart, according to a detailed review of space toiletry. But the apparatus has its flaws. It can be clunky to use, particularly for women, and it is "sensitive to crew alignment on the seat," sometimes resulting in messes, according to that review.

So NASA has tried to keep the aspects that have gotten positive reviews while trimming mass and volume and making some design changes, like adjusting the shape of the seat and replacing the apparatus that compresses the waste. Another change mimics a feature of the toilet on the Russian side of the space station, where astronauts simply hook their feet into toe bars, rather than the thigh bars used on the American equivalent to anchor the astronaut in the microgravity environment. The UWMS will remain on the space station for the rest of the orbiting laboratory's lifetime, and a second toilet of the same model will fly on the Orion capsule that astronauts use to fly around the moon on the first crewed Artemis mission in NASA's ambitious lunar return plan, according to the agency.

The Food and Drug Administration has ended its emergency use authorization for hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, drugs the president touted in the fight against coronavirus. Mr. Trump took a 14-day regimen of hydroxychloroquine himself. CBS News reports: Based on the FDA's continued review of the available scientific evidence, it determined the drug is "unlikely to be effective in treating COVID-19 for the authorized uses," the FDA said. The agency added that "in light of ongoing serious cardiac adverse events and other serious side effects, the known benefits "no longer outweigh the known and potential risks."

A study published earlier this month concluded that the drug is not effective at preventing the disease. As CBS News chief medical correspondent Dr. Jon LaPook explains, controlled clinical trials are the only way to prove if a drug works better than a placebo or other treatment, or if its potential benefits outweigh the risks.

The restaurant review that divulges distressing family dynamics. The Facebook post that rehashes an embarrassing encounter. The tweet that reveals a phobia few people know about. On our smartphones, we are quick to reveal private emotions and highly personal experiences to faceless strangers. From a report: Building on her earlier research that equated smartphones with adult pacifiers, Shiri Melumad, an assistant professor of marketing at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, set out to determine why we express ourselves in a more intimate, personal style on our smartphones than on our personal computers -- and how marketers can harness this behavior. In research published in March in the Journal of Marketing, Dr. Melumad conducted three field studies and two controlled experiments. One study looked at nearly 300,000 Twitter posts created in a 12-hour span. Tweets written on phones contained 47% more first-person pronouns and 52% more references to family than those written on PCs, she found.

"Consumers tend to convey feelings or thoughts that are more private or intimate on their smartphones, which is captured by the use of 'I' or 'we' and mentioning family and friends," says Dr. Melumad. A second study employed 1,380 judges as well as natural-language processing software to analyze a random sample of more than 10,000 TripAdvisor restaurant reviews. The software scan revealed that reviews written on smartphones again contained more first-person pronouns and more references to friends. And, crucially for marketers, they were judged to be more self-disclosing and, in turn, more persuasive. "Smartphone-generated content seems to be more diagnostic of how people truly feel," Dr. Melumad says. "Those reviews heightened readers' interest in visiting the restaurant." The final field study found that people were more likely to disclose personal information in response to an ad when targeted on their smartphone than on their PC.

One study promised that popular blood-pressure drugs were safe for people infected with the coronavirus. Another paper warned that anti-malaria drugs endorsed by President Trump actually were dangerous to these patients. The studies, published in the New England Journal of Medicine and The Lancet, were retracted shortly after publication, following an outcry from researchers who saw obvious flaws. From a report: The hasty retractions, on the same day this month, have alarmed scientists worldwide who fear that the rush for research on the coronavirus has overwhelmed the peer review process and opened the door to fraud, threatening the credibility of respected medical journals just when they are needed most. Peer review is supposed to safeguard the quality of scientific research. When a journal receives a manuscript, the editors ask three or more experts in the field for comments. The reviewers' written assessments may force revisions in a paper or prompt the journal to reject the work altogether. The system, widely adopted by medical journals in the middle of the 20th century, undergirds scientific discourse around the world. "The problem with trust is that it's too easy to lose and too hard to get back," said Dr. Jerome Kassirer, a former editor in chief of the New England Journal of Medicine, which published one of the retracted papers in early May. "These are big blunders." If outside scientists detected problems that weren't identified by the peer reviewers, then the journals failed, he said. Like hundreds of other researchers, Dr. Kassirer called on the editors to publish full explanations of what happened.

No cases of coronavirus have been linked to two Missouri hairstylists who saw 140 clients last month while symptomatic, county health officials said. Both stylists worked at the same Great Clips location in Springfield. The clients and the stylists all wore face coverings, and the salon had set up other measures such as social distancing of chairs and staggered appointments, the Springfield-Greene County Health Department said last week. From a report: Of the 140 clients and seven co-workers potentially exposed, 46 took tests that came back negative. All the others were quarantined for the duration of the coronavirus incubation period. The 14-day incubation period has now passed with no coronavirus cases linked to the salon beyond the two stylists, county health officials said. During the quarantine, those who did not get tested got a call twice a day from health officials asking whether they had symptoms related to Covid-19, said Kathryn Wall, a spokeswoman for the Springfield-Green County Health Department. "This is exciting news about the value of masking to prevent Covid-19," said Clay Goddard, the county's director of health. "We are studying more closely the details of these exposures, including what types of face coverings were worn and what other precautions were taken to lead to this encouraging result."

Desperation for a way to keep economies from collapsing under the weight of Covid-19 could mean settling for a vaccine that prevents people from getting really sick or dying but doesn't stop them from catching the coronavirus. From a report: Although a knock-out blow against the virus is the ultimate goal, early vaccines may come with limitations on what they can deliver, according to Robin Shattock, an Imperial College London professor leading development of an experimental shot. "Is that protection against infection?" Shattock said. "Is it protection against illness? Is it protection against severe disease? It's quite possible a vaccine that only protects against severe disease would be very useful."

As countries emerge warily from lockdowns, leaders are looking to a preventive shot as the route to return to pre-pandemic life. Fueled by billions of dollars in government investment, vaccines from little-known companies like China's CanSino Biologics and giants like Pfizer Inc. and AstraZeneca Plc are in development. At least one of the fastest-moving experimental shots has already advanced into human trials after showing an impact on severe disease -- but less so on infection -- in animals. Experts say such a product would probably be widely used if approved, even if that's as much as it contributes, until a more effective version comes to market. "Vaccines need to protect against disease, not necessarily infection," said Dennis Burton, an immunologist and vaccine researcher at Scripps Research in La Jolla, California.

Long-time Slashdot reader JoeRobe writes: Space.com and other outlets are reporting on new pictures of Wolf 359 and Proxima Centauri sent back from New Horizons. The images show clear parallax between the view from Earth and from the spacecraft 6.9 billion km away. In effect, New Horizons is looking up at a visually different star field than we are... NASA has even created stereoscopic pairs to get a 3D view.
"It's fair to say that New Horizons is looking at an alien sky, unlike what we see from Earth," New Horizons principal investigator Alan Stern said in a statement, according to Space.com: New Horizons captured the imagery on April 22 and April 23, when the probe was more than 4.3 billion miles (6.9 billion kilometers) from its home planet. That's so far away that it took 6.5 hours for the data containing the photos, moving at the speed of light, to travel from New Horizons to mission scientists' inboxes... The parallax demonstration was not done for scientific purposes, Stern told Space.com (though he did note that the New Horizons imagery might find its way into textbooks that discuss the parallax effect). Rather, the main goal was public outreach and engagement, and a desire to provide us all with some cosmic poetry and perspective.

We could get more such demonstrations, and much more data, from New Horizons in the coming years. The probe remains in good health and has enough fuel to fly by yet another object in the 2020s, if a suitable target can be found and NASA approves another mission extension, Stern and other team members have said.
On Friday five New Horizons scientists answered questions on Reddit, including New Horizons contributing scientist and astrophysicist Brian May (also a guitarist for the rock group Queen).

The team pointed out they could hypothetically maintain communication with their interplanetary space probe until it's 200 times as far from the Sun as the Earth is. (It's currently just 47 times as far...) "But power will run out before we get that far...somewhere near 100 times."

Long-time Slashdot reader destinyland writes: Vintage computing enthusiasts have recreated NASA's legendary "Apollo Guidance Computer," the 1960s-era assembly-language onboard guidance and navigation computer for the Apollo missions to the moon. Unfortunately, the software had been lost for the Apollo 10 mission (a manned "dress rehearsal" mission which flew to the moon eight weeks before Neil Armstrong's famous moonwalk mission).

But spaceflight engineer Mike Stewart found a clever way to recreate it, according to one science show on YouTube. Stewart found a print-out of an earlier version of the program, and "with the help of a small army of volunteers, Mike hand-transcribed the source listing and all of its programs..." — all 1,735 pages of it. (Though what used to take 25 minutes to compile together on a Honeywell mainframe now takes less than a second on his modern laptop.) There were also NASA memos which described the change, later versions of the program which had implemented the changes — and most importantly, a recently-discovered NASA document giving the checksum for every version of every program run on the Apollo Guidance Computer. So Stewart was able to cut-and-paste carefully-chosen code and variables from later versions of the program — based on the clues in NASA's memos — until he'd recreated a program with the exact same checksum.

There's also a separate video about the Apollo 10 code, highlighting "lighthearted comments in very serious code." (For example, to warn off people who'd change their crucial constants, they'd actually included a Latin phrase — a play on a biblical quote which translates roughly to "Don't touch these.") The ignition routine that actually lights the descent engine for the moon landing is named BURNBABY. The comment accompanying it? "OFF TO SEE THE WIZARD."

"Scientists in Japan successfully triggered a hibernation-like state in mice by activating a specific group of brain cells," reports UPI, which points out that entering a hibernation-like state "could help astronauts conserve food and water, as well as avoid the ill-effects of microgravity, on long journeys through space." The research, published this week in the journal Nature, suggests even animals that don't naturally sleep through the winter are capable of hibernation...

Hibernation isn't simply prolonged sleep. When food gets scarce and winter approaches, hibernating animals begin to slow down their metabolism and drop their body temperature. During their prolonged slumber, hibernating animals quiet their brains and slow their heart rate and breathing. As a result, bears, snakes, turtles and other hibernating species are able to conserve energy. When spring arrives, the animals wake having lost a little weight, but are otherwise healthy.

Mice don't hibernate in the wild. But in the lab, researchers were able to coax mice into a hibernation-like state by activating a type of brain cell called Q neurons... During their approximately weeklong hibernation, the mice had slower heart rates, reduced oxygen consumption and slower respiration.

"A new modeling study out of Cambridge and Greenwich universities suggests that face masks may be even more important than originally thought in preventing future outbreaks of the new coronavirus," reports SFGate: To ward off resurgences, the reproduction number for the virus (the average number of people who will contract it from one infected person) needs to drop below 1.0. Researchers don't believe that's achievable with lockdowns alone. However, a combination of lockdowns and widespread mask compliance might do the trick, they say. "We show that, when face masks are used by the public all the time (not just from when symptoms first appear), the effective reproduction number, Re, can be decreased below 1, leading to the mitigation of epidemic spread," the scientists wrote in the paper published Wednesday by the Proceedings of the Royal Society A.

The modeling indicated that when lockdown periods are combined with 100% face mask use, disease spread is vastly diminished, preventing resurgence for 18 months, the time frame that has frequently been cited for developing a vaccine. It also demonstrated that if people wear masks in public, it is twice as effective at reducing the R number than if face coverings are only worn after symptoms appear.

The masks don't have to be top-of-the-line surgical or respirator masks. Homemade coverings that catch only 50 percent of exhaled droplets would provide a "population-level benefit," they concluded.
Another review funded by the World Health Organization and published in the journal Lancet also concluded "that data from 172 observational studies indicate wearing face masks reduces the risk of coronavirus infection," according to the Washington Post.

A former director of America's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday, "It's a lot less economically disruptive to wear a mask than to shut society, so I can't understand some of the resistance to mask wearing."

NASA astronauts Doug Hurley and Bob Behnken flew to the International Space Station on SpaceX's Crew Dragon. But they're also uniquely qualified to describe what it felt like, since both had also flown twice on NASA's Space Shuttle. So how did its solid-fueled booster rockets during the first stage of lift-off compare to SpaceX's liquid-fueled booster rockets? A Slashdot reader shares their answer, in an article from Spaceflight Now: The Crew Dragon astronauts said the ride on the Falcon 9 rocket was smoother than the space shuttle for the first couple of minutes... "[O]ur expectation was, as we continued with the flight into second stage, that things would basically get a lot smoother than the space shuttle did. But Dragon was huffing and puffing all the way into orbit..." Behnken said. "A little bit less Gs, but a little bit more alive is probably the best way I would describe it." Hurley said, "it was very similar to what you saw in the Apollo 13 movie, where they staged from first to second stage... "That was the highlight of the ascent for me," Hurley said.

"So totally different than shuttle," Hurley said. "It was smooth. It got a little rougher."

The Dragon's automatic docking with the space station felt more gentle than expected, Hurley said. "The thing that really stood out to both us — and we mentioned it was soon as we docked — is we didn't feel the docking," he said. "It was just so smooth, and then we were docked. In shuttle, you felt a little bit of a jolt, nothing real heavy, but you felt it."

Hurley and Behnken also had positive reviews for their SpaceX-made pressure suits. The astronauts wore them during launch and docking, and will put them on again for their return to Earth — expected in late July or August. "They're custom designed and custom fitted, so they're very comfortable," Hurley said. The astronauts said taking off the suits and putting them on in space, without the effect of gravity, was much easier than on Earth. "We'd have to give the suits a five star rating," Behnken said....

"For us — as the test pilots, so to speak — we're there to evaluate how it does the mission, and so far it's done just absolutely spectacularly," Hurley said.

"Chemical engineers from UNSW Sydney have developed new technology that helps convert harmful carbon dioxide emissions into chemical building blocks to make useful industrial products like fuel and plastics," reports Phys.org: The researchers, who carried out their work in the Particles and Catalysis Research Laboratory led by Scientia Professor Rose Amal, show that by making zinc oxide at very high temperatures using a technique called flame spray pyrolysis (FSP), they can create nanoparticles which act as the catalyst for turning carbon dioxide into 'syngas' — a mix of hydrogen and carbon monoxide used in the manufacture of industrial products. The researchers say this method is cheaper and more scalable to the requirements of heavy industry than what is available today...

"Syngas is often considered the chemical equivalent of Lego because the two building blocks — hydrogen and carbon monoxide — can be used in different ratios to make things like synthetic diesel, methanol, alcohol or plastics, which are very important industrial precursors," says Dr. Lovell, co-author of a paper published this week in Advanced Energy Materials. "So essentially what we're doing is converting CO2 into these precursors that can be used to make all these vital industrial chemicals..."

The researchers say in effect, they are closing the carbon loop in industrial processes that create harmful greenhouse gases... "The idea is that we can take a point source of CO2, such as a coal fired power plant, a gas power plant, or even a natural gas mine where you liberate a huge amount of pure CO2 and we can essentially retrofit this technology at the back end of these plants. Then you could capture that produced CO2 and convert it into something that is hugely valuable to industry," says Dr. Lovell.

In 1945, after atomic bomb detonations at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, several former Manhattan Project scientists founded the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Publishing continuously since 1945, its current deputy editor, science writer DanDrollette, is also a Slashdot reader, and shared one of the nonprofit magazine's thought-provoking new interviews: In 2012, author David Quammen wrote a book, Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic, that was the result of five years of research on scientists who were looking into the possibility of another Ebola-type disease emerging. The consensus: There would indeed be a new disease, likely from the coronavirus family, coming out of a bat, and it would likely emerge in or around a wet market in China.

But what was not predictable was how unprepared we would be.

Quammen: For 15 years, scientists have said: "Watch out for coronaviruses; they could be very dangerous." And for five years, Chinese scientist Zhengli Shi at Wuhan Institute of Virology has been warning us to watch out for the coronaviruses found in Chinese bats; SARS is a coronavirus, and it came out of Chinese bats in 2003. That was very dangerous to humans, but it didn't transmit as readily as this one does. But Shi and her group saw a virus very similar to it in bats in a cave in Yunnan Province and published a paper in 2017 saying, "Watch out for these particular coronaviruses in these horseshoe bats. They necessitate the highest preparedness." That was three years ago...

Everything about this outbreak was predictable, to me and to the scientists I was listening to, 10 years ago.