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IPv4 Unallocated Addresses Exhausted by 2010 419

An anonymous reader writes "Ars Technica is reporting on how the unallocated IPv4 address pool could run out as soon as 2010. The IPv4 Address Report gives details on just how fast the available pool of IPv4 addresses is diminishing. Will ISPs be moving towards IPv6 any time soon? Or will IPv4 exhaustion become the next Y2K?"
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IPv4 Unallocated Addresses Exhausted by 2010

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  • From TFA: free pr0n! (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Rodness ( 168429 ) * on Thursday May 24, 2007 @09:29PM (#19263601)
    Despite the best efforts of organizations like ARIN, the simple fact is that, compared to IPv4, IPv6 gives you access to very little content and very few users. So far, nobody has been able to get past this chicken-and-egg issue, although a The Great IPv6 Experiment [ipv6experiment.com] proposes to change this by giving away free access to "10 gigabytes of the most popular 'adult entertainment,'" but only over IPv6.

    Is IPv6 so unappealing that they've gotta bribe people with pr0n to use it?
  • by McDutchie ( 151611 ) on Thursday May 24, 2007 @09:31PM (#19263631) Homepage
    They could delay the inevitable by reallocating existing IPv4 space more efficiently. Many old/historical allocations are inefficient. Apple Computer, for example, has all of the 17.x.x.x space, comprising 256^3 = more than 16 million addresses, which is just plain absurd in this day and age.
  • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 24, 2007 @09:32PM (#19263639)
    predictions

    every year there is a new nutter predicting the end of the world. Havent we heard of this argument before? Would it be a good idea to take ownership of those class A spaces that quite a few companies are hoarding??
  • Re:Why IP6? (Score:2, Interesting)

    by KillerCow ( 213458 ) on Thursday May 24, 2007 @09:42PM (#19263767)
    That would require a change to all TCP/IP stacks, and replacement of core routers.

    Why not just fix the problem outright if you are going to do that?
  • uh, what? (Score:3, Interesting)

    by DreadSpoon ( 653424 ) on Thursday May 24, 2007 @09:45PM (#19263797) Journal
    Ease adoption how, exactly? You still need to update the protocol, then update all the software, and all the hardware, and all the documentation and training... you can't just tack that on to existing implementations of software.

    If you're going to force all that change, then change to something that isn't a silly half-arsed hackjob.
  • by Detritus ( 11846 ) on Thursday May 24, 2007 @09:46PM (#19263817) Homepage
    You and what army of lawyers? :-)

    Class A blocks were one of the benefits of being a Internet pioneer. Why should they give them up?

  • by Kadin2048 ( 468275 ) * <.ten.yxox. .ta. .nidak.todhsals.> on Thursday May 24, 2007 @09:50PM (#19263871) Homepage Journal
    That's really just not true. With IPv6, you can get a lot more anonymity than you have now with IPv4. v6 has all sorts of special provisions for randomly assigning addresses, letting you reset them when you want, so that you can appear to be a new user in the middle of a browsing session. That's tough to do with IPv4; even if you try a DHCP release-and-renew from your ISP, generally they won't issue you a new address until the other one has expired.

    IPv6 doesn't force you to give up any privacy, and there's no 'user serialization' unless you buy into it voluntarily.
  • by Wolfier ( 94144 ) on Thursday May 24, 2007 @10:06PM (#19264007)
    Halliburton Company     34.0.0.0 - 34.255.255.255

    Even as someone who doesn't think of Microsoft as an Internet pioneer, I'd rather MS owns this block than Halliburton.
  • by RzUpAnmsCwrds ( 262647 ) on Thursday May 24, 2007 @10:22PM (#19264169)

    They could delay the inevitable by reallocating existing IPv4 space more efficiently. Many old/historical allocations are inefficient. Apple Computer, for example, has all of the 17.x.x.x space, comprising 256^3 = more than 16 million addresses, which is just plain absurd in this day and age.


    Don't complain about Apple. HP has all of 15.x.x.x and all of 16.x.x.x, because they purchased DEC who also had a class-A.

    Interestingly, HP is the only company that effectively has a /7 because their block is contiguous.
  • by Zaffle ( 13798 ) on Thursday May 24, 2007 @10:30PM (#19264259) Homepage Journal
    I'm continually amazed at the number of people in the IT and Net industry who keep "wondering" when IPv6 will arrive. Its been here for a long time. I'm running a series of web servers for internal company use that have native IPv6 addresses. For public consumption, we have an IPv4 reverse proxy that allows us to run our entire web services behind one IPv4 address. Any customer who has an IPv6 address gets to talk to the individual servers.

    The advantage comes when you consider management. In order to have 20 SSH/FTP/etc accessible Internet servers, I'd either need 20 separate IPv4 addresses (getting a decent segment of a class C here is expensive), or I'd have to play fun games with ports. All our technicians have IPv6 on their laptops, and use tunnel brokers for access to the v6 network.

    Most of our clients have IPv6 connectivity, though they don't notice it. When we put in a firewall, IPv6 comes default setup with tunnel brokers.

    People keep asking, when's there gonna be v6 content? There is no v6 content (ok, their is full colour ascii starwars). Any content provider would be nuts to say "you have to have v6 to see our content" at this point (with the exception of mobile phones). IT Techs brought v4 to the public, we'll bring v6 to the public. Its technicians like myself who appreciate having an Internet accessible toaster (ok, so its not yet accessible) that have already started the ball rolling.

    Before long you'll see hosting providers saying, you can have one web gateway shared v4 address and a /64 v6 address for a cheap price. You'll design your websites to be usable on v4, but for management tools, etc, you'll need to install a v6 tunnel.
  • by grapeape ( 137008 ) <mpope7 AT kc DOT rr DOT com> on Thursday May 24, 2007 @10:49PM (#19264415) Homepage
    Anyone else think its kind of weird that the US only has 300,000,000 people but the Department of Defense needs 184,549,376 IP addresses? Also why does the freakin interop show need a class A, and why does PSI still have the 38. block didnt they go out of business around 5-6 years ago?
  • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 24, 2007 @10:57PM (#19264495)
    Just move slashdot to an IPv6 only address; voilla by monday every corporate will have a functioning IPv6 setup... ;-)
  • by TooMuchToDo ( 882796 ) on Thursday May 24, 2007 @11:00PM (#19264519)
    Actually, you don't need an army of lawyers. Those Class A blocks are delegated solely at the whim of ARIN (at least those Class A blocks that fall under ARIN control). If ARIN has a vote, and the majority of stakeholders create a resolution requiring action to be taken to stave off address exhaustion, then anything is possible.

    Disclaimer: I've worked with ARIN to get/manage/return blocks of IPs for years.

  • by Zaffle ( 13798 ) on Friday May 25, 2007 @12:05AM (#19265087) Homepage Journal

    Surely, you should only need one port to communicate with your toaster. I'll even wager that you wont have 65535 devices in your house that you need to talk to. They only need one port. NAT it and be done.

    The issue with this is that IP was designed so that each device has one IP address. When you visit google, you go to http://www.google.com/ [google.com], not http://www.google.com:81/ [google.com] (I tried to use :80 here, but slash removed it, so I'm using 81). So if I wanted my toaster and fridge to be accessible, to browser to their respective webpages, I'd have two choices; http://myhouse.example.com:81/ [example.com] http://myhouse.example.com:82/ [example.com] etc etc, or use a reverse proxy and use http://myhouse.example.com/toaster [example.com].

    And how do you remember which port is the toaster, and which is the fridge? If you want to SSH into them, you can't even use a reverse web proxy. At that point, if I was forced to use IPv4, I'd setup a PPTP VPN and route it using 10.0.0.0/8 address range.

    So no, I choose to make my toaster accessible via IPv6, and if you are forced to use v4, you can still access the basic webpage with http://myhouse.example.com/toaster [example.com]. Hmmm.. I'm hungry, I think I wanted slightly burnt bread.

  • This just in. (Score:3, Interesting)

    by kinglink ( 195330 ) on Friday May 25, 2007 @12:36AM (#19265347)
    Oil out of supply in 1999, Global warming killing everyone in 2005, P2P piracy ends with Napster, Limewire, Kazaa.

    Seriously it's all just FUD, There's an expiration date, but 2010? What happens when we make a few Class As into Class Bs? oh that's right, more time. I think the key is to figure out how to make the best "IPv6" and a way to make it so my old commodore 64 is willing to work with it (whether that be ISP level conversion or a inexpensive hub, note INEXPENSIVE)

    Do I have a commodore 64? Not any more but the point remains there's literally a million devices out there only able to communicate with IPv4. There's actually a million people out there not willing to go through the hassle of going to IPv6 (and probably about that many who are unwilling to change) and if the way they are pushing to get people to switch with FUD like this, I'm guessing it's more than a couple million who don't want IPv6, so it's time to ask ourselves, how can we make IPv6 more attractive than staying with IPv4, and implement these ideas. IPv6 will likely overtake v4 one day, but come on, let's find a way to make people switch rather then just wait for it to happen.
  • by thogard ( 43403 ) on Friday May 25, 2007 @12:58AM (#19265553) Homepage
    They don't allocate IP addresses, they allocate routes entry and with route entries, you get way more addresses than most need. The solution for this is to start allocating non-contigious /24... Force everyone to fix their routing and treat the wold as a 2^24 /24 ranges and get over it. To do this right requires less than 8mb of cache tag ram in most routers that want full feeds and enough ram to process the bgp routing updates.

    Going to IPv6 doesn't fix the fact that routers are running out of routes. This problem will get plenty of attention in about 2 months when the big Cisco routers start to dump routes because they are too big and adding IPv6 only makes the problem much worse.
  • by sirket ( 60694 ) on Friday May 25, 2007 @01:36AM (#19265893)
    A decade ago when ARIN was being formed there are sheer outrage at the size of the routing tables then. I think it was about 59K entires (but I could be wrong). I was told the cpus in big routers couldn't keep up.

    This just goes to prove your ignorance. There were several times when routers were only _barely_ able to stay ahead of the table growth- and in many cases routers did have to be upgraded.

    The routing table has been stable for a while and growth has been very small- mostly due to sensible allocation strategies. Suddenly splitting up existing allocations would cause far more harm than good- plain and simple.

    At the time there was also serious concern that a million names in com would break the entire net. Now there's about, what 40 million com names? My email and webpages still seem to work.

    I think you mean 70 million. That said- there was concern- questions about whether it could handle the growth- not widespread agreement that it wouldn't work. And the reason it does work is because of incredible infrastructure investments to allow it to work- money spent on GTLD servers, big pipes, multiple datacenters and large anycast groups, etc.

    I'm supposed to sweat a 25% increase? What happened to the credo of scalability? 25% and it's the death of the net predicted? Please.

    I don't care what you sweat- the recent router crashes in Japan were likely the result of insufficient capacity in the routers- and you want to just increase the table size by 25%? Get real.

    ARIN gets paid for V6 allocations. I'd love to see the accounting for taking something from some company for free then resellng it for boucoup bucks.

    ARIN gets paid for v6 and v4 allocations. A /48, for example, is only $1200 (similar to a /21 under IPv4)- if you think ARIN is making money on this then you're nuts. The paperwork and administrative costs use up that $1200 pretty damned fast.

    Exactly how many routers do you run with a full table- and what models are they?

    -sirket
  • by billstewart ( 78916 ) on Friday May 25, 2007 @01:44AM (#19265961) Journal
    I did some business with the @Home cable modem people back during the 90s boom. They had a very schizophrenic attitude about Napster - not only were they paranoid about users running anything serverlike that might interfere with network performance, but they had an official policy about "Napster Users are EEEVILLLL Content Thieves who'll steal television next! Bad! Bad!"


    But if you talked to @Home's people as individuals rather than Corporate Employees, almost all of them would say "Well, Duh! Napster is the reason that people are *buying* broadband internet connections, of *course* we like it."


    And, ok, the paranoia about servers on home cable modems was partly because their early trial equipment didn't work very well and they had no way to regulate individual upstream bandwidth usage, and PacBell's dishonest "Cable Modem Web Hog" ads made them really worried about perceptions of slow performance, but they were worried that somebody would run a pr0n webserver from home, become Cool Site of the Day because doing that on cable modem would be cool, and trash their neighborhood's network performance while causing a lot of publicity. And unfortunately most of the cable companies have not only not recovered from that attitude, they've been propagating it to the DSL providers, and they've been learning other cluelessly paranoid attitudes from the Australian ex-monopoly who thinks you should cap the total monthly download of their users (since that used to be expensive in Oz), and cap it to a ridiculously low level like 1GB/month, which is like 1.5 days of continuous 56kbps usage.


    But when I had my corporate hat on, especially if I was talking to non-California customers, it was certainly much more proper to talk about the big internet usage being for music piracy than for pr0n :-) These days, BitTorrent occupies over 1/3 of the Internet's bits, apparently mostly copying movies and TV and Linux distros as opposed to music (that's by volume, not by number of items), and I don't know what fraction of that is what kind of movies.

  • It only seems ridiculous because of the way we distribute IP addresses today, using CIDR. Prior to 1993 (or whenever CIDR was implemented), if you wanted to run a network with subnets, then you needed at least a Class B allocation, so that your subnets could have Class C blocks (254 hosts each).

    This is why MIT, Apple, DEC, IBM, and lots of other big companies were given Class A's. It wasn't just a "thanks for playing" reward, it was because the original design for the IP system required Class A blocks if you wanted to run big networks: if you had a big organization, you needed a Class A, in order to do multiple levels of subnetting.

    When you look at the IP allocations and see GE or DEC's Class A blocks, it seems ridiculous. But you have to understand that when those allocations were made, what they were looking at was less the number of actual host IPs in the block (which is what we care about now) but the number of Class B and C subnet blocks that were inside. Put yourself in the shoes of someone at a big company like IBM or GE, with lots of regional offices. Each region/office needs to have a network, with its own subnets (for each department or whatever). That's how they were laying things out. "IBM" as an organization gets a Class A. Each regional office or some other division, Class B. Each network or further subdivision, Class C. Yeah, you end up with a lot of wasted capacity, but this whole scheme was designed back when a "host" was a PDP or VAX; there just weren't enough of them for it to seem like a major issue.

    The problem people sometimes refer to when they talk about "the last time we were running out of IPs" (back in the early 90s) wasn't really a shortage of IPs at all (well, at least not immediately, although people were definitely realizing it was going to be a problem), it was a shortage of Class B and C subnet blocks. (Particularly Class B's, since that's what medium-size businesses and .edu's really wanted, and there are only like 16k of them around for direct allocation.)

    So that's when CIDR was introduced, and it ended the whole 'Classed Network' concept (A, B, and C classes) and replaced it with the now-familiar bitwise/subnet-mask format. (E.g., IBM's Class A block is 9.0.0.0/8, Apple's is 17.0.0.0/8, etc.) This, along with prefix aggregation, allowed more efficient address allocation, and kept the routing tables from growing out of control. Now that you can subnet at the bit level, rather than at the Class level, those A Blocks seem huge. But keep in mind that before CIDR, each of those A Blocks was looked at, not as 16M hosts, but as 254 subnetworks.

    It's only in retrospect, with the help of a bunch of new technologies, that the allocations made back in the Internet's early years look ridiculous.
  • by Anonymous Coward on Friday May 25, 2007 @02:02AM (#19266109)
    Many years ago, I worked at Network Appliance. For their webcache servers (which ISP's could use to cache popular pages for their users), every so often we could see what people were looking at. This was because once in a while the kernel would crash, and so we'd get a core dump back. Complete with images of what was in RAM.

    For many (if not every) coredump, 90% of the web pages were porn. I kid you not. If you dont believe me, just go ask Guy Harris (yes, of Ethereal/Wireshark and other fame) as he was one of the top kernel debuggers back then.

    This was truly depressing for someone who has spent much of his working life building up the Internet, from the protocols, to various UNIX OS's as well as other stuff. Yes folks, the major use of the Net is Porn. NetApp confirms it.

    Sigh.
  • by CSLarsen ( 961164 ) * on Friday May 25, 2007 @03:45AM (#19266705) Homepage

    The IPv4 addresses are a subset of the IPv6 space -- you can get to all of the IPv4 systems from an IPv6 network.
    No! And that's the really BIG problem with moving over to IPv6. You should read up D.J. Bernstein's run-down of the miserable state of matters at http://cr.yp.to/djbdns/ipv6mess.html [cr.yp.to]
  • Re:VoIp Everything (Score:3, Interesting)

    by bofkentucky ( 555107 ) <bofkentucky.gmail@com> on Friday May 25, 2007 @05:41AM (#19267297) Homepage Journal
    I made the assumption that each state/lata/switch/tower was doing their own nat.
  • Re:TCP/IP 101 (Score:2, Interesting)

    by gedhrel ( 241953 ) on Friday May 25, 2007 @05:48AM (#19267325)
    Your scheme would only permit a _single_ tcp connection between any pair of hosts attached in the fashion you describe, since a TCP connection is identified by the tuple (src ip, src port, dest ip, dest port). So you'd wind up inventing a whole load of connection multiplexing to go with that NAT.

    Frankly, that sounds like more engineering work than switching to IPv6.
  • by anticypher ( 48312 ) <[moc.liamg] [ta] [rehpycitna]> on Friday May 25, 2007 @07:23AM (#19267751) Homepage
    But Apple is using much of their /8 allocation.

    Go into any Apple store and fire up your Wifi, and you'll get a non-NATed 17.x.x.x address. There is a firewall, but other than that, its exactly what the internet is supposed to be.

    Since Apple has very little of their infrastructure behind NAT, they have very few problems with things like NAT traversal, or buggy VoIP systems.

    the AC
  • Just give users who post over IPv6 a badge next to their name and and an auto +1 IPv6 mod

    I know you came up with this on your own, because great minds think alike. This was my suggestion a few years ago in some other IPv6 thread. It was a good idea then, and still a good idea now. Maybe, once /. has both v4 & v6 access, for a period of one year to increase karma or auto-mod up posts, or some other kind of reward or badge or access to content not available to the dinos^WIPv4 people.

    The whole of the OSTG would gain a lot of knowledge in migrating servers to dual stack, which would give the programmers very valuable skills they could exploit for a few years.

    the AC

    Yes, I've been on IPv6 natively since 2000, isn't it obvious?
  • by Marrow ( 195242 ) on Friday May 25, 2007 @11:19AM (#19270415)
    So right now we have a flat address space of 32bits or so. Why not
    create multiple internets, one per country lets say. Everyone
    gets to keep their existing internet address. Its just encapsulated
    within a country network.

    In order to get to country A address B.B.B.B you have to use
    a route. Each ISP would have a special router address that would
    send packets to that country accross a "dedidcated" connection. Your
    computer would know that when DNS assigns a "zip" for a particular
    connection, it locks the routing for those packets to go out via
    the local ISP dedicated router address.

    Your computer knows what router to use because it got the "zip code"
    for that route when it did the DNS lookup.

    Yes, I realize there would be problems. But perhaps less problems then
    with IPv6 adoption?

    This is moving to a hierarchial model. And the extra address space
    comes from the routing tables.

    Its just an idea. Please be kind.

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