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UBS and Gartner Trim Smartphone, PC Forecasts Amid Tariff Fears (indiadispatch.com) 32

Posted by msmash from the paring-expectations dept.
Analysts at UBS and Gartner have significantly reduced their growth forecasts for global PC and smartphone markets as a result of mounting pressures from trade tariffs and broader macroeconomic uncertainties that are expected to impact consumer demand through 2026. From a report: In a pair of research reports sent to their clients on Wednesday, UBS and Gartner revised down their global PC shipments forecast for 2025 and 2026 from previous estimates of 5% and 4% growth to just 2% for both years, citing the potential impact of trade policy and macroeconomic headwinds. The investment bank and Gartner also cut their global smartphone shipment growth forecast for 2025 to 1% (1,235 million units) from 2%, while reducing its 2026 projection from 1% growth to flat at 1,235 million units.

The outlook is particularly grim for the US market, which accounts for 24% of global PC units and 31% of global PC value. UBS expects the region to be disproportionately affected by tariff measures, projecting US PC demand could decline by 1.1% in 2025 before registering a modest 0.8% recovery in 2026, significantly underperforming compared to the mid-single-digit growth forecasts for other regions.

UBS and Gartner Trim Smartphone, PC Forecasts Amid Tariff Fears More | Reply

UBS and Gartner Trim Smartphone, PC Forecasts Amid Tariff Fears

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  • Happen. Such stand up Americans we are! So much winning!

  • Yeah, it's getting quite real out there (Score:4, Informative)

    by jacks smirking reven ( 909048 ) on Wednesday April 23, 2025 @11:09AM (#65325655)

    Some snippets from my vendors in the last week (these are for other electronic components)
     
    ...a new price list that will be effective May 1st. The latest changes will reflect a 20% price increase due to the tariffs that have been imposed.

    At this moment I would encourage your customers to ORDER SOON, while the 10% tariff is in effect.

    Please note that the prices of our products/services, including any quotations and bids pending, are subject to change based on fluctuations in tariff rates. In the event of any new tariffs, changes to existing tariffs, or other trade-related regulations that impact our costs, we reserve the right to adjust our prices accordingly.

    All those price are EXW LA but based on current import tariff, there probably will have extra 10% after this month.

    • This year was going to be a smartphone upgrade year ... now it's not. I was planning for years to pre-order a Switch 2 the moment I could, now I'm not. Even if I had the money to throw at it I ain't paying those tariffs on principle.

      I remember when the people who voted for our glorious leader were against new taxes and for small non-interferring government. I wonder where they are now.

      • Ahh you see the trick was just don't call it a "tax", then it's A-OK for the government to collect more money but we pinky swear it's not a tax because tax is the bad word!

        • Also, don't forget about the bold-faced lie that somehow the exporting country pays import tariffs, and absolutely not the importer or downstream actors.

          • Which intuitively the idea of exporting nation pays doesn't make any sense when you think about how it would work for more than a minute. We've wasted far too many millions of hours debating whether that is true when its a simple known fact. Stupid insanity.

      • Re:Yeah, it's getting quite real out there (Score:4, Insightful)

        by ArchieBunker ( 132337 ) on Wednesday April 23, 2025 @12:16PM (#65325803)

        I wonder where they are now.

        Still cheering because the state media (Fox) is telling them the economy is amazing and dear leader has the same BMI as an NFL player. I know this is a Daily Fail link but let's compare athletes with the same height and weight. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/he... [dailymail.co.uk]

      • I remember when the people who voted for our glorious leader were against new taxes and for small non-interferring government. I wonder where they are now.

        There are a few answers to this question. I will list them here in no particular order:

        1. they're still there, but they've changed their tune because they're more interested in the fascism then they are the small government philosophy and probably always were
        2. they're still there, but cowering in fear due to wanting to continue self-enriching while paying lip service to "public service" and "party of law and order" and all that other bullshit that they work against every single day
        3. they've been chased a

  • In case you're not putting a lot of thought into how this really plays out, either critical computing parts that every business in America needs daily being taxed higher is a bluff because that's insane and will kill the economy OR everyone knows that China will take a bunch of Lenovo stuff, ship it to Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan, whatever and have them add like 1 button or LED or draw a picture of a cat on the box or something, then slap a "made in Thailand" label on it and sell it to the US to avoid the ta

    • Re:We all know that won't happen (Score:5, Insightful)

      by jacks smirking reven ( 909048 ) on Wednesday April 23, 2025 @11:26AM (#65325677)

      Thailand is currently at 36%, Malaysia is 24% and Vietnam at 46% so there's no escape, just which numbers are gonna make sense, if any and all this can change day to day, week to week and then the 90-day "pause" is still looming on the horizon.

      Considering Trump folded on China with Xi pulling the master negotiating tactic of "just don't answer the phone for 72 hours" I imagine most companies are making plans but still sitting tight right now.

      I think one Japanese lawmaker had it right "If Japan listens to this and bends the other way in response to the impossible demands of bargaining and deals, it will set a bad example as a customary and historical precedent," Oguma said. "If you get mugged and put money in their hands, they will come back to mug us."

      • Thailand is currently at 36%, Malaysia is 24% and Vietnam at 46% so there's no escape, just which numbers are gonna make sense, if any and all this can change day to day, week to week and then the 90-day "pause" is still looming on the horizon.

        Considering Trump folded on China with Xi pulling the master negotiating tactic of "just don't answer the phone for 72 hours" I imagine most companies are making plans but still sitting tight right now.

        Trump has no intention of going through with tariffs for any significant amount of time. He knows that's a game of chicken he and his party will lose. The ace in his hands is that he knows that the current tariffs for most Asian nations (aside from India) are already really low. If those countries lower their tariffs (even to zero), it doesn't make much of a difference for them. Despite what Trump says, tariffs aren't the reason the US isn't exporting more to those counties. So, both Trump and those co

    • Yeah let's start our own chip fab. First we'll just need to buy some machines from ASML (a Dutch company) so add 25% tariffs onto that...

      Please stop I can only take so much of this winning!

    • Re:We all know that won't happen (Score:5, Insightful)

      by leptons ( 891340 ) on Wednesday April 23, 2025 @12:46PM (#65325879)
      None of the shenanigans this administration is foisting upon us are designed to make the country secure or "great again". This is now a fascist kleptocracy, every action is designed to make those in-the-know more wealthy by crashing the economy so the already-wealthy can buy up everything at low prices. Then the tariffs will be removed, but then another economic calamity will be manufactured so they can milk the rest of us for everything we have. Rinse and repeat. This is what happens when a criminal is elected, you get a criminal government.

      • Re: (Score:1)

        by CEC-P ( 10248912 )
        You're right, we should keep spending until the debt is $50 trillion,keep taking everyone's rights away and adding more taxes and more regulations because that went so well in California, and chasing green energy when China and India are polluting at a higher rate than we're stopping. Also, keep sending money and jobs to China and letting them control critical items we need to function. And keep lying to minorities and telling them everyone is out to get them so let's let them all out of jail with no bail a

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by leptons ( 891340 )
          Sorry, I don't engage with right-wing idiots. You're clearly delusional and blaming democrats for everything the republicans do, which is very typical of "conservatives".
        • Such empathy. You should get a trophy.
      • Perhaps what is worse is trump blinked today. I think the Chinese now know who has the upper hand. The clown was a fool. You don't do shit like he did with the tariffs unless you are certain you will win. He lost, we lost. Kiss the reserve currency bye bye.

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by leptons ( 891340 )
          >The clown was a fool. You don't do shit like he did with the tariffs unless you are certain you will win. He lost, we lost.

          He did not lose. He intentionally crashed the markets, then sent out a social media post that simply said "Buy" right before he made an announcement that brought the markets back up. He and his rich friends won when they bought low, so they can sell high. Everyone else is losing. It's absolutely insider trading, and it's totally illegal, and that's what we get when we elect a crim

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