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Education IT

Predicting a Post-Pandemic Future: Remote Working and Distance Learning? (politico.com) 165

This week Politico published predictions from 34 "big thinkers" about what the future will be like after the coronavirus pandemic. (An associate professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland argues that "The Reagan era is over. The widely accepted idea that government is inherently bad won't persist after coronavirus.")

Others predict a future with voting from mobile devices (and possibly higher voter turnout), and one author even predicts a society that accepts "restraints on mass consumer culture as a reasonable price to pay to defend ourselves against future contagions and climate disasters alike."

But several also predict the rise of telemedicine, including the editor-in-chief of Reason, who also argues that the epidemic "will sweep away many of the artificial barriers to moving more of our lives online." The resistance -- led by teachers' unions and the politicians beholden to them -- to allowing partial homeschooling or online learning for K-12 kids has been swept away by necessity. It will be near-impossible to put that genie back in the bottle in the fall, with many families finding that they prefer full or partial homeschooling or online homework. For many college students, returning to an expensive dorm room on a depopulated campus will not be appealing, forcing massive changes in a sector that has been ripe for innovation for a long time.

And while not every job can be done remotely, many people are learning that the difference between having to put on a tie and commute for an hour or working efficiently at home was always just the ability to download one or two apps plus permission from their boss. Once companies sort out their remote work dance steps, it will be harder -- and more expensive -- to deny employees those options. In other words, it turns out, an awful lot of meetings (and doctors' appointments and classes) really could have been an email. And now they will be.

Not everyone agrees. Author Sonia Shah argues that "The hype around online education will be abandoned, as a generation of young people forced into seclusion will reshape the culture around a contrarian appreciation for communal life."

But the president of Vassar College even wonders if the pandemic will be a boon to virtual reality, hoping for a program that helps self-isolated people socialize. "Imagine putting on glasses, and suddenly you are in a classroom or another communal setting, or even a positive psychology intervention."
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Predicting a Post-Pandemic Future: Remote Working and Distance Learning?

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  • by Luckyo ( 1726890 ) on Sunday March 22, 2020 @03:36PM (#59860120)

    It's worth remembering that these sorts of "predictions by big thinkers" have median accuracy of zero.

    • by hey! ( 33014 ) on Sunday March 22, 2020 @05:15PM (#59860508) Homepage Journal

      Actually quite a few predictions do come true, most of them just seem unremarkable in retrospect. A few of them are famous -- Jules Verne's prediction of submarines (although his understanding of electric motors was backwards even for his time). He also predicted radio news broadcasts.

      H.G. Wells predicted aerial bombing of cities in 1907, and submarine launched weapons of mass destruction in 1933.

      Video calling was a perennial prediction, like a flying car, which illustrates the biggest pitfall of tech prognostication -- timing.

      In 1780s the President of Yale predicted, based on his analysis of the population history of Europe, that the United States would have a population of 300 million in about two hundred years; he was only about 25 years off.

      Alex de Tocqueville predicted 1838 that world politics would come to be dominated by contention between the United States and Russia.

      Now there's a significant element of luck here, as in Ezra Styles being approximately right even though he could not possibly have anticipated the territorial expansion of the United States. A number of economists predicted the 2008 crash, but at any given time there's bound to be some economist predicting doom. Still, it's certainly not correct to say that futurists are *never* right. Just by chance they're bound to get it right some of the time.

    • by jdualo ( 6709206 )
      What if--just what if--the predicted pandemic simply doesn't come off? The death rates even in the epicenters never reached the average daily death rate in those areas, and those average death rates, though easily Googled, are never mentioned in any of the nightmarish reports about the ventilator rationing that might one day happen (but isn't yet happening) in those areas. For example, the average number of deaths per day in Italy is 1,772. The number of deaths "from the virus" yesterday is 651. How many of
      • For example, the average number of deaths per day in Italy is 1,772. The number of deaths "from the virus" yesterday is 651. How many of those deaths in the "virus-related" column in the ledger were simply moved over from the "normal" column"?
        Are you a complete retard?

      • Zero! It's not true, but the announced it, their citizens believed it.
        And they announce today 46 new cases and 6 new deaths.

        You must be a paid troll ... or a moron, or both.

        Now get the hell back to work.
        They are not going back to work, as they still have 5500 active cases and the cities are still under lockdown.

      • by samkass ( 174571 )

        You're comparing the average death rate in all of Italy to the Coronavirus death rate in Lombardy and other northern regions where the virus became endemic. Yesterday the number was actually 793 deaths, mostly in the northern area, which is about 1/6 of Italy's population-- and therefore by your numbers you'd expect 300 deaths or so. You're also ignoring the hospitalization rate, which is much higher than the death rate. (Recovery from a serious case--15% of which are-- can take 4-6 weeks.) And once the hos

      • MOD PARENT UP! It is important to understand the background facts.

        Quote from the parent comment:

        How many of those deaths in the "virus-related" column in the ledger were simply moved over from the "normal" column"? All of them? None? In Lombardy, where the virus is endemic, every patient in any hospital will test positive for it, whether or not is has made them ill. And if they die, they go in the virus column.

        Average number of deaths per day in the United States: " In 2017, an average of 7,708 deaths o [cdc.gov]

      • by MrKaos ( 858439 )

        What if--just what if--the predicted pandemic simply doesn't come off?

        Too late.

        The death rates even in the epicenters never reached the average daily death rate in those areas, and those average death rates, though easily Googled, are never mentioned in any of the nightmarish reports about the ventilator rationing that might one day happen (but isn't yet happening) in those areas.

        Death rate reach one person per minute last night.

        For example, the average number of deaths per day in Italy is 1,772. The number of deaths "from the virus" yesterday is 651.

        Indeed, it appears that the propagation of the virus is being expressed by the Euler-Mascheroni constant [wikipedia.org] or (e) about every 8 days.

        I posted on the 18th, using Australia as an example [slashdot.org] when referencing the timeline of confirmed cases [wikipedia.org] are close to the first estimate.

        How many of those deaths in the "virus-related" column in the ledger were simply moved over from the "normal" column"? All of them? None? In Lombardy, where the virus is endemic, every patient in any hospital will test positive for it, whether or not is has made them ill. And if they die, they go in the virus column.

        That won't change the propagation.

        The Chinese government had a tool at their disposal: control over the press. They had a problem: citizens panicking over the average death rate being recorded in the wrong column. They used the tool at their disposal. "Since you can't control yourselves when the infection rate is non-zero, then fine. It's zero. Now get the hell back to work."

        The Chinese government were welding doors of apartment buildings closed according to some westerners trapped there sending video to the press.

        A year from now, if there's a referendum in which I'm permitted to vote for draconian governmental regulation of the news, I will run to the polls to kill the viciously stupid institution known as "freedom of the press."

        if--the pr

    • Remember, these people aren't paid to make accurate predictions. Who knows what they are paid for, but it's not that.
    • by ranton ( 36917 )

      I'm not sure this is the best way to introduce people to stay at home work anyway, if the goal is to make them like it. Kids at home providing distractions, added stress from the pandemic, both spouses at home in a house with only enough room for one "office", significant disruption at work from supply chain and financial issues, etc. If there was a great way to give most of the workforce a negative feeling towards working from home, this would be it.

      • I'm not sure this is the best way to introduce people to stay at home work anyway....

        Where I work, this is the ONLY way to convince the bosses to let us work from home. It took the threat of all of us dying before they activated the second brain cell that said, "maybe letting them work from home wouldn't cause the collapse of civilization as we know it." And even with our lives at risk, they had to debate it.

      • I have to homeschool the last week while working from home at the same time. This is VERY demanding, and i am happy to send my kids back in the capable hands of their professional teachers who do the work in a few weeks.

        I get more of an appreciation for teachers (and my mom), not less.

  • The plan to replace cables with cell for home internet will flop. Where Data is capped at 50GB before throttling or overages start at that point.

    • Also, if you'd ever want to come close to the speeds of fiber, you'd have to basically shoot lasers into people's homes, and protect them from interference and from frying birds ... at which point you'd have FIBER again!

      • Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • Shoot the lasers from space and you've got StarLink and OneWeb.

        But frankly, how many people want fiber speeds? I don't. Anything over 10 Mbps doesn't matter unless you have a gigantic television you sit inches from, and also 20/20 vision.

        • > Anything over 10 Mbps doesn't matter unless you have a gigantic television you sit inches from, and also 20/20 vision.

          Bullshit. A single ATSC channel's bitstream has 19.2mbps.

          If you compressed the hell out of it, you MIGHT pull off 720p30 or (1440 x)1080p24 at 8mbps... but you'd have absolutely no headroom for any kind of forward error correction, so even the slightest hiccup would visibly glitch onscreen. Not to mention, you'd completely saturate your home's internet connection with a single video st

  • and what about the University of Phoenix will they stick around and maybe even out last an state school?

  • by nospam007 ( 722110 ) * on Sunday March 22, 2020 @03:48PM (#59860176)

    They can't work from home, but they are needed for the toilet paper business.

    We should rename them to buttmen.

  • by bluegutang ( 2814641 ) on Sunday March 22, 2020 @03:49PM (#59860180)

    Beyond the information and skills learned, a major purpose of schools is to babysit the kids all day while the parents work. Even in universities such babysitting is often needed - a high fraction of college students never finish their degree due to lack of discipline. All the more so at every lower level of education, the younger the more necessary. Distance learning does not provide for babysitting, so it won't make a significant dent in school time for the forseeable future.

    • a major purpose of schools is to babysit the kids all day while the parents work.

      Not all parents work. Not all parents work every day. I worked from home 2 days per week pre-covid.

      On the days I go to work, I usually get home at about 6 pm. My kids are home from school by 3 pm. So there is still plenty of time when they are unbabysitted.

      Perhaps the schools could offer flexible babysitting. Families could have a choice to send their kids to school, have them learn from home, or send them on some days and not on others.

      • I worked from home 2 days per week pre-covid.

        On the days I go to work, I usually get home at about 6 pm. My kids are home from school by 3 pm. So there is still plenty of time when they are unbabysitted.

        Perhaps the schools could offer flexible babysitting. Families could have a choice to send their kids to school, have them learn from home, or send them on some days and not on others.

        It'll be discretionay wash and rinse cycle with the flexibility of the unbabysitted. A wash.

    • Beyond the information and skills learned, a major purpose of schools is to babysit the kids all day while the parents work.

      Obviously parents who aren't practicing the extreme version of "social distancing" also known as telecommuting.

    • by Strider- ( 39683 ) on Sunday March 22, 2020 @05:30PM (#59860570)

      Even in universities such babysitting is often needed - a high fraction of college students never finish their degree due to lack of discipline.

      The bigger thing with Universities is that the purpose of a university isn't to educate students. That's just a side gig for them. The real purpose of Universities is to get a large group of incredibly smart people together, doing various basic research, in a (normally) publicly funded manner. There are things that I had access to as a student that I will never have access to in a home environment. Lab equipment, clean rooms, etc... that you simply can not do through distance education. Combine this with the professors/researchers who are pursuing their research interests, and it's an institution that is both incredibly valuable, and will not go away.

      • I'm one of those university researchers (although I reject the "incredibly smart" part...). For a week now, we've been working remotely, and late last week the university told all researchers to work from home, with few exceptions. My field (computational linguistics) is of course one that can easily do this; some others, say biology or maybe chemistry, cannot (although IIUC more and more chemistry experiments are being done in a way that's basically robotic). Astronomy is another field which has, I'm to

    • College students mainly don't finish their degree because:
      1. 1. They run out of money
      2. 2. They can't handle the workload (unprepared by high school
      3. 3. They lose interest in the material

      Distance learning allows students to go at a pace that is appropriate for their ability to learn. It can be done much cheaper than on campus education. Finally, you don't have to worry about being shut out of the classes you really want and being stuck with classes that you don't like but are forced to take for lack of better opt

  • Wired: Home Office (Score:4, Insightful)

    by theodp ( 442580 ) on Sunday March 22, 2020 @03:49PM (#59860184)

    Tired: Open Office [theladders.com]

    • by shmlco ( 594907 )

      I work for a place where the developers are in one great big "open" collaboration area. And where all of the executives, accounts, HR, and staffing people each have their own individual offices or work cubes.

      Funny how the developers are apparently the only ones that need to "collaborate".

  • by Asimov. It's called Solaria [fandom.com]: no one meets anyone else in person, and robots do all the work. And many of Azimov's prediction came true,

  • by t4eXanadu ( 143668 ) on Sunday March 22, 2020 @03:58PM (#59860216)

    Come on, nothing is going to change.

  • Telemedicine (Score:4, Insightful)

    by aaarrrgggh ( 9205 ) on Sunday March 22, 2020 @04:07PM (#59860248)

    Telemedicine is lacking a few home tools to actually be sufficiently effective, but it will come. (Ordered my pulse oxygen meter already...) Its current form though has been miserable from my experience though, although I imagine most of the blame lies on the patient.

    Education needs a shakeup, yes... but distance learning does nothing to solve the needs of K-16th grade in the US. It is also pretty miserable for continuing education as well. Maybe tools eventually evolve (despite not really making any progress in the past 25 years) to make them feel more interactive, but I am not holding my breath. It might help improve access to information (and maybe even knowledge), but converting that into education isn’t a slam dunk. I also worry about the implications of social growth for kids, especially the 15th and 16th graders.

    Politically... the best thing that could come of this is single-payer healthcare. How the hell do you deal with people being laid off at a time of medical emergency with any other approach? While I feel most for the waiters and bartenders, there are also plenty of other industries where people will be unemployable for at least six months (especially support roles related to airlines and travel).

    But, my biggest hopes are for solutions for medical equipment that does not rely as heavily on single-use products, and a shift away from a global just-in-time supply chain.

  • by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Sunday March 22, 2020 @04:15PM (#59860264)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • by theodp ( 442580 )

      So, how long until the class-action tuition lawsuits start getting filed?

    • I really thought that most big businesses would leave city centers after 9/11 - that didn't happen either.

      Why? You seriously thought most office buildings would be hit by planes?

  • by Arzaboa ( 2804779 ) on Sunday March 22, 2020 @04:15PM (#59860268)

    I enjoyed the article. It was a whole lot of wishful thinking. The problem with it is that they are dreaming of an ideal world where people take care of themselves first and then bow to the pressures of others. The real world does not work like that.

    Take working from home. Most people who go to work sit on a computer and talk on the phone. Interactions are done by IM's even with the person next to them. The coffee machine is simply a common place for people to complain about. Everything is done by wire. Most find it bothersome when people interrupt you at your desk and ask people don't do that. For all intensive purposes people are already working "remote." The only difference is that at the office they can shame each other for the way they eat, smell, dress, etc...

    In the end, the three people that couldn't adopt to it are always used as excuses to bring folks back to work. "Johnny and Sue performed 20% worse at home, so you all come back and I really missed seeing you all." - Some CEO. On top of that, the management who thrive on meeting new people always go back to thinking that if it makes them productive it should make others productive. In the end the idea about working from home is less about individuals and more about what makes people feel most comfortable. What makes most people comfortable is routine.

    What this article is asking is that people change the way they think and act towards others. The biggest issue is that most people will never change because for most people it is not them that is the problem. If you can explain how to fix that, then we might be on to something.

    --
    Only the wisest and stupidest of men never change. - Confucius

    • The problem with it is that they are dreaming of an ideal world where people take care of themselves first and then bow to the pressures of others.

      Those Asian countries could take tips from us. We bow to no one.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Depends how much money they save by not having so much office space, having less free coffee, cleaning, toilet paper, electricity, parking spaces...

    • by sjames ( 1099 )

      It may be a case of evolution in action/natural selection. The businesses that have always at least allowed some work from home will take less of a hit from the pandemic than those that are not at all prepared for it. More companies that forbid it entirely will fail.

    • by StormReaver ( 59959 ) on Sunday March 22, 2020 @09:42PM (#59861152)

      For all intensive purposes people are already working "remote."

      That's, "For all intents and purposes," not, "For all intensive purposes."

  • If the pandemic lasts more than a few months, then it will definitely cause permanent changes.

    - Companies have resisted home-office, because managers fear loss of control. But any company suited to home-office, that survives this little adventure, will know that home-office does work, and the managers will have had time to adapt.

    - Distance education will be somewhat more prevalent, but only somewhat. The problem you face for many young people (and more children) is motivation. Put a squirmy 12-year-old in a

    • Put a squirmy 12-year-old in a kitchen chair, and more many of them a physical adult presence will be needed to keep them there.

      Like...parents? Oh, this could end badly.

      • Like...parents? Oh, this could end badly.

        The parents are supposed to be working-from-home. If they are trying to babysit their kids at the same time, they won't get much work done.

        • by sjames ( 1099 )

          OTOH, if the kid is slacking off from their virtual classroom, they will be bothering their parents, providing a very direct incentive for the parent to insist they sit back down and pay attention in class.

    • "Government is and remains a problem." It's also the case that "government" exists at many levels in the US, from the Federal through the state to the local, and there's a huge variation in how well those different levels are responding, as well as in how different entities at the same level are responding. For example, I have a sense that Maryland's governor (Hogan) is doing an outstanding job, and that he's respected by both parties. He is in fact a Republican in an overwhelmingly Democratic state, and

  • After a week, I think that people who voluntarily homeschool are complete psychopaths.
    • That's because you're doing it wrong.

      Hint: Don't try and do "school at home", where you attempt to do the same things and schedule meant for 30 kids + teacher for just you + your kids. It's a stupid way to learn in school, it's even worse at home where there's not administrative reason for it.

      Instead, find something they're interested in doing and turn them loose to go do it for hours at a time.

  • by Mononymous ( 6156676 ) on Sunday March 22, 2020 @04:38PM (#59860340)

    An associate professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland argues that "The Reagan era is over. The widely accepted idea that government is inherently bad won't persist after coronavirus."

    Something tells me the professor has never met a conservative, and knows of their ideas only from soundbites and caricatures.
    This is why American politics is so terrible right now. People with differing ideas have no real contact. Our online forums are making the problem even worse.

    • I'd be willing to bet that he's been predicting the "end of the Reagan era" for three decades now.

      In a way, he's right. The Reagan era ended in 1988. What he is wishing for is something that never existed.
      • Somewhere I read a SciFi story which starts out with a professor bemoaning the growing sheep instinct of people, and which ends with that same professor bemoaning the growing individualism. In between is a paradigm-shifting invention that enables people to do what they've always wanted to do.

        No, I don't remember what the story was, nor what the invention was. I'm hoping someone here will help...

  • by aepervius ( 535155 ) on Sunday March 22, 2020 @04:42PM (#59860364)
    I think nothing will change, because the people in power are also the rich one with a vested interest into the inequal system we have now. My prediction is : return to pre-pandemic time , quite a few people at the top shorting today and then buying cheap, rising inequality and top sided wealth even more, and a lot of people out of a job, home and so forth like 1929. And NOTHING otherwise changes.
  • If you are so afraid of social interaction, get a therapy, or declare yourself a new species!

    It's a human thing! It is essential for mental health! (There's a hint!)
    And it is a thing *because it's more successful* than being a lizard that even eats its own babies!

    No matter how much you repeat it. Cause you're the only one.

    • than being a lizard that even eats its own babies!
      They basically do that only in captivity.

      I have about 7 Tokay https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org] at my home in Thailand. They place the eggs all at the same place and as well as the two males and the 5 females guard them together in shifts. They basically only eat flying stuff and nothing that looks like a gecko.

      Of course, wiki articles claim different :P but it is hard to believe that my Tokay are something special. They are wild, not captive, they walk arou

  • Tele-anything only works if there's a network over which it can work. I predict more attempts at government involvement in raising the minimum level network infrastructure.

    I also predict more automation in Amazon warehouses and an attempt at locally teleoperated delivery of "untouched" packages.
  • by hdyoung ( 5182939 ) on Sunday March 22, 2020 @05:02PM (#59860450)
    Poll 100 millenials about how they feel about online education vs. in-person school, and at least 90 of them will admit that in-person is still better and they prefer it.

    It's not the teachers unions and professors who are resistant to online learning. It's human psychology. Take 100 students through a real-life in-person class, and 75 will succeed. Take the same 100 students and teach the same material remotely, and about 60 will succeed. The failure rate will be higher, simply because of lack of motivation and attention. There's nothing like being in front of an authority-figure to make you wake up and focus. It's not about the content.... it's the human on the receiving end that's the issue.

    Until we somehow get over this barrier, online teaching will be second fiddle to real life. Personally, I believe that we will eventually figure it out, but nobody has managed to yet. When they do, I will be the FIRST one in line to adopt it.
    • Take 100 students through a real-life in-person class, and 75 will succeed. Take the same 100 students and teach the same material remotely, and about 60 will succeed.
      That is nonsense.
      Remote teaching means still you have a teacher and classes, other wise it is "online material for learning".

      I learned 90% of my stuff on my own from books, I don't need a teacher for stuff one can read up ...

      • I learned 90% of my stuff on my own from books, I don't need a teacher for stuff one can read up ...

        If I hadn't already commented on this story, I would mod you up. I learned more useful stuff in one year with Internet access than I learned in most of my public school years combined.

        The Internet is the greatest tool humanity has ever created, and (as is usually the case), most business executives are about 40 years behind on understanding it. I can't wait until the current crop of obsolete bosses retire.

      • The OP said 60 of those 100 will succeed. You, sir (or ma'am), are presumably one of those 60.

      • Yes and no... learning is easy, motivation is harder.

    • by khchung ( 462899 )

      Poll 100 millenials about how they feel about online education vs. in-person school, and at least 90 of them will admit that in-person is still better and they prefer it.

      Sure, then let those 90 go to class and the remaining 10 can attend remotely from home.

      • Absolutely. I am all for multiple options. Let people learn the way thatâ(TM)s most effective for each individual. Most will pick a face to face classroom environment of some sort.
  • There will still be plenty of people that need to get by on their looks that will bring us back into the office.

  • 1300â(TM)s on: Black Death. 1918/19 Spanish Flu.
    Yeah they sure killed off human interaction, well no they didnâ(TM)t .
    Covid19 isnâ(TM)t in the same league as these, and âoeexpertsâ are contemplating social isolation as the future. Hell, social media has caused far more of that than any plague.

    • Gosh, I wonder why those people 100 years ago didn't telecommute to avoid the Spanish Flu? They did have the telephone, after all.

  • invest in vaccine tech [youtube.com] so we don't have to go through this bullshit again.

    But no, let's reform our entire civilization to save a few tens of billions a year.

    The one and only thing I'd like to see come out of this is vote by mail. It would make voter suppression via poll closures much, much harder.
  • ...are self-selected and wrong more often that clairvoyants & fortune tellers. Don't waste your time reading this drivel. Things will go back to the way they were with distressing ease once the pandemic panic has died down. Politicians will go back to cutting funding for disaster contingencies & healthcare infrastructure to pay for tax cuts for the rich quicker than you can say, "But that's not what Adam Smith meant."
  • I don't think these predictions fully account for how social your average human is. Interacting on-line is OK, but not the same. I'm mostly an introvert but I would not enjoy nor be as effective working from home all the time.

    There will be more people working from home for sure. There will likely be more flexible education options that include more learning at home.

    But like all crisis, once it's over some things will change, but eventually people will go back to doing what they like, and one of those
  • Everything will go back to the way it was before until the next time this happens.
    Then everyone will panic out again, and we'll have idiots 'predicting' all sorts of outlandish things.
    Rinse, repeat ad infinitum, until the human race is extinct, or until we defeat all disease.
  • by Retired ICS ( 6159680 ) on Monday March 23, 2020 @12:16AM (#59861554)

    "The widely accepted idea that government is inherently bad won't persist after coronavirus."

    Of course it will because the government *IS* inherently bad. It is just that at the moment it has something meaningful to do -- the actual only reason that government was created. Once this is past the Government will have no "useful purpose" once again and will go back to its useless old "inherently bad" behaviours.

  • No way, these scrum fanatics will just have 3 hours worth of videoconferencing daily to keep up all their meetings.
  • Reminds me of "Caves of Steel" [wikipedia.org].
  • I think the general premise of the OP is a good thing for numerous reasons, not simply as a post-pandemic adjustment to life. I've been homeworking for about 5 years now, with the blessing of my Manager. I get more done and am recognized as a top performer as a direct result.

    But for me, home working also means not burning gas to get to the office and back. Prior to the home-working, I would average 8,000 miles a year (I know that's not much: think of the environment). That's now down to 1,800 miles a yea

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