Does Microsoft Need China? 226
angkor writes "Does Microsoft Need China? Interesting article from CFO.com's perspective on MS pricing strategies in the developing world: 'Put another way, Microsoft is relying on current pricing and a goodly portion of the world's tech growth to sustain its 31 percent net profit margins. But an increasing portion of global tech growth will come from Asia's burgeoning economies. And it's precisely in Asia--with China in the lead--that pressure to alter the uniform pricing structure for its software is the strongest in the world...'"
It's Not Just The Price (Score:5, Insightful)
I think Microsoft has some of the right ideas, trying to develop an infrastructure which has a need for their products, but they'll need businesses to buy into it more than government.
And at that point the conference center's FUD alarm went off and people fled into the streets.Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:4, Funny)
I think it's Microsoft's silly belief that Taiwan is a country.
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:3, Funny)
Once the masses are informed, they'll happily be reunited under Taiwanese rule.
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:3, Interesting)
sound reasonable to me. taiwan has far more legitimacy than PRC, no matter what the relative populations are.
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:3, Insightful)
that depends what you mean by "part of china". i have no problem with the concept that taiwan be considered part of a single country that includes the mainland. however, the mainland is currently under the control of a non-democratic, illegitimate government, and taiwan has a fledgling democratic government.
I believe that no one would like to see the war between us and our Taiwan people, since we are all Chinese. However, som
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:3, Insightful)
Consider this. You claim that the people of Taiwan are Chinese people. The current Communist Party government already has an agreement with the Chinese people in the form of the Constitution of the People's Republic of China. This agreement guarantees free speech, freedom of assembly, freedom to organize labor unions, etc.
Can you tell me why the Chinese people
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:3, Insightful)
i would say that you are not even in the circle if you cannot vote for the people who will represent you in government. it is the center of the circle, and if it's not there, there can be no circle.
the chinese people are not even nearly in charge of their own de
Hong Kong? (Score:3, Insightful)
"The present governing crisis in the Hong Kong "Special Administrative Region" (SAR) of China came to a head on July 1 when over a half-million of the SAR's 6 million citizens marched in protest against strict new anti-sedition laws, the "Article 23" legislation. The magnitude of the public outcry was a shock to Beijing, which has not exper
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:3, Informative)
That's seems wrong.
So if you go back a little into history, you'll see that Taiwan is Malay, or if
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:3, Insightful)
Because they might actually need to interact with the rest of the world at some point?
I'm not saying its impossible to come up with their own solution, but it may not necessarily make sense.
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:3, Insightful)
If you're big enough, the rest of the world will happily come interact with you (as all the US companies are eager to prove through outsourcing relationships).
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:2)
Right, like they can't make their own mplementations of IP/HTTP/SMTP/CSS/etc.
-matthew
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:2, Insightful)
Because the Chinese market is not big enough to justify the cost? 80+% of the population are tied up in agriculture, which makes the none-agriculture population comparable to the US... but given the significantly lower living standards, its not very fesible to "develop something that works for China", at least in the near future, and in the prof
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:2)
Even if we are talking about products that affect the top 1% earners in China this still represents well over 10 million people who can easily spend $1000 a
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:2)
In 1920 the U.S. population was 51% urban, by 1990 75% urban. United States Urban and Rural Population 1790-1990 [census.gov]. Urban being defined as a community of 2,500 or more. But that isn't the who
Software piracy... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Software piracy... (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:2)
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:2)
Not just hardware. China has been developing their version of Linux for years dubbed Red Flag Linux. China simply does not want to trust any foreign or commercial software for security reasons in most of its government offices.
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:2)
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:2)
Wasn't there a /. article on this a year or so back? The CPU was named Dragon something or another.
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:2)
Good point! LOL
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:2)
I meant That's how Intel designed their 64-bit-X86 too, right?
Good point
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:3, Funny)
Interested in using it? Depending on who you work for, the Chinese might give you a special discount.
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:4, Insightful)
Basically, with commodity chips like Celerons and the various entry level priced AMD chips being so cheap the market for their chip/board combo got knocked out.
From a business perspective, and this is a business rather than a governmental agency although they've had help from academia and some grants, the original idea was to get away from the royalty costs and thereby produce a super cheap chip. But the reality of the market has been that chip royalties have become insignificant so you can't get ahead in the market by cutting royalties. There's essentially nothing left to cut at the low end.
But they're still at it.
The big thing this year was a joint venture with AMD. AMD is partnering with them on some of their chip designs that were considered industrial PC grade but are actually even better than what Haier was offering with the Dragon Chip.
And as you're probably most interested in this part, I could be recalling incorrectly, but I'm pretty sure the specs were something like a 266Mhz with 64K RAM on board and the cost was US$150 but only in units of several thousand.
You see the problem here? You can get a Via Epia 800 for less than that and those are not cheap. You can get an older Celeron or AMD chip with a motherboard for almost half that if you really shop around.
So, they're still in business, but the facts of the overall market have made their story a bit less newsworthy.
The bottom line is this: if the price is right then foreign products will be just fine.
The same is true for Microsoft. But this is where it gets interesting. Microsoft's market position is already in serious trouble when the guts of a PC go below a hundred bucks.
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:2)
The main market they want to penetrate should be something that runs embedded linux for routers, settop box etc. At this moment, most existing implementations uses eith
Re:It's Not Just The Price (Score:2)
the Haier logo [sinobnet.com] has got to believe that marketing and PR is going to stay local for the time being. (That photo may look fairly innocent right now, but trust me... once it gets a little worn/faded you'll be asking yourself what a couple of cartoon gay men are doingpromoting your air conditioner.)
-a
Growth is Slowing... (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Growth is Slowing... (Score:2, Informative)
In Soviet Russia... (Score:2, Funny)
Rather... Does China need Microsoft? (Score:5, Interesting)
But I'm only a history major...
Re:Rather... Does China need Microsoft? (Score:3, Insightful)
My guess is that they'll try to capitalize (heh) on it.
Re:Rather... Does China need Microsoft? (Score:2)
The advantage of planned economies is that you can afford to take the long view. The problem with the planned economy is that if your leaders guess incorrectly you don't really have a backup plan.
In a free market economy lots of people make bets. Some of those bets pan out, and some of them don't, but the success of the economy doesn't rely on any one of the bets. Sure, none of the free market bets are as grandiose as the planned economy bets (capital tends to get spread out among the many choices), bu
Re:Rather... Does China need Microsoft? (Score:2)
It seems to me that Bill must be a Communist saboteur.
But to return to the point, no country needs anything from M$ because there are cheaper, more reliable alternatives, m
And besides (Score:4, Funny)
Because like everyone knows, Open Source = Communism [marok.org] :-)
Re:Rather... Does China need Microsoft? (Score:4, Interesting)
I predict within the same 20 year time span, there will be massive civil unrest, possibly a civil war in China. The country just isn't that stable, according to Chinese visitors I know and things I have read here and there.
Scary stuff. hopefully I am wrong.
China has yet to develop the necessary social infrastructure to have an economy has large as that in the US. Whether they can do it is an open question.
Re:Rather... Does China need Microsoft? (Score:2, Interesting)
Scary stuff. hopefully I am wrong.
US has yet to develop the necessary social tolerance to keep the economy it has. Whether they will continue to be the stable dominating power is an open question.
now you see how stupid it is to predict 20 yrs? i can make anything sound logical and acceptable.
Re:Rather... Does China need Microsoft? (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Rather... Does China need Microsoft? (Score:2)
On the other hand, as other posters have noted, 20 years is a long, long way away.
Re:Rather... Does China need Microsoft? (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Rather... Does China need Microsoft? (Score:3, Interesting)
Imagine a society that does not see the value of intellectual property? Copyright was developed quite recently, something like 200 years. The Asian culture is MUCH MUCH older than ours. While we were still hitting each over the head with clubs Asian's had gun powder and fireworks.
So a society like this would have already wrestled with the idea of copyright and intellectual property. And probably they came to conclusion that we tend to think a bit too highly of our ingenuity
Re:Rather... Does China need Microsoft? (Score:2)
Theorically, yes you're right it does follow standard historical patterns (lots of people, government support, good tech). But on the other hand, its not gonna happen (TONS of bootleg copies of Windows, government is Communist so different rules in the political arena, and the fact that t
"Does Microsoft Need China?" (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:"Does Microsoft Need China?" (Score:5, Interesting)
I think the answer to that question is an undisputed "no", and that's why the reversed was asked.
As you stated, China doesn't need Microsoft, as they have shown again and again that they are able to produce/reverse engineer (depending on your point of view) something a comparable or better (as in more suited to their needs) product than the west.
Thus the original question, "Does Microsoft Need China?" is the true discussion point. IE: Asking the reverse: "Can Microsoft continue to grow the marketshare at the rate expected by its executives and investors if it loses the billion and a half potential consumers found in China". I think the answer is probably "Yes, they can, but not under their current business model", so the longer answer to the original question is:
"No, Microsoft doesn't need China, but they need to come up with a refreshed business model that reflects this".
All business models have cycles, and Microsoft's has lasted a lot longer that it should have.
Re:OT: Obtaining ModPoints (Score:2, Offtopic)
I metamoderate every couple of days, I usually agree with the interesting, informative, underrated and funny mods, and agree with maybe half the troll, redundant and offtopics, because about 1/2 the time it appears that people mod this way because they don't agree with what somebody is saying, or because they are too shit-thick to understand an obvious joke.
I'm guessing that
Re:OT: Obtaining ModPoints (Score:2)
When I metamoderate (which is rarely), I'm pretty conservative.
I generally only mod up or down 3 or 4 of the 10 posts presented to me.
I never mod down 'funny' mods since I simply may not get the joke.
'Underrated' and 'overrated' I leave alone since you can't tell what
the original moderation level was when the mod was applied.
I mod down 'informative' and 'insightful' mods if I
happen to know that the posts contents are factually wrong.
I mod 'in
Re:"Does Microsoft Need China?" (Score:2)
Who really needs Microsoft?
Does China want Microsoft? (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Does China want Microsoft? (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Does China want Microsoft? (Score:3, Interesting)
On the other hand, if the development process is done by academics, hackers, multiple number of companies, they will have to share the new development with their fellow programmers.
One of the main concern in terms of F
Re:Does China want Microsoft? (Score:3, Interesting)
They may *choose* to do so because it behooves them, but they simply cannot be bullied.
China has historically referred to itself as 'The Middle Kingdom', implying that they're at the centre of the earth. For any other nation, this might be seen as hubris. For China, it's axiomatic.
Re:Does China want Microsoft? (Score:2)
Put shortly, why would they need to mantain compatibility with the original? So long as a handful of comms protocols still function to get them to the "outside" world, the nation's intranet can be as forked and/or proprietary as it wants, can it not?
They will need China (Score:3, Insightful)
I used to work in the conveyor belting business and every belting company in town wanted to get into china to cut costs.
If China becomes a huge source for outsourcing manufacturing then of course the question is who will supply the technology to do it?
Re: (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:China Still Communist. (Score:2)
You sure have a point there, but it does not work this way.
You make it sound like a conspiracy of sorts.
Once China is dependant on revenue from outside for its (toys/software programming/you name it), then it is difficult to act erratically, and deprive itself of the revenue.
See, capital is very selfish and wary. Once it sees instability, it runs away to safer havens.
Look at the USofA's relationship with Pakistan and India for example, when it comes to invading Afghanistan, a dictator like Prevez Mu
WE will need Linux to DEAL with China (Score:3, Interesting)
Unfortunately M$ has already screwed itself into increasing marginalization by its rapacious business practices. They are f*cked.
There's no way that China's business and end-user communities are going to shell out the kinds of money for Windows when Linux is free and government supported.
In the end, Linux will be damn nea
Depends on IP laws. (Score:3, Insightful)
On the other hand, if Linux is allowed to compete in a free market both here and in China, Microsoft will need to find a new strateghy anyway.
Perhaps they'll have to start innovating instead of charging large amounts for commodity components like filesystems and operating systems.
"Does Microsoft Need China?" (Score:4, Funny)
What they need is to rethink their current strategy and figure out how to make it more efficient in their current market.
If they rely on a new populous for their future plans...well, I hate to be the bringer of bad news, but eventually they're going to run out of new blood...unless ET visits us, but, I doubt a lifeform capable of extra-solar travel is going to be interested in licesensing MS software.
Who needs who? (Score:2)
Doomed! (Score:5, Insightful)
Speaking of pricing.... (Score:2)
Re:Speaking of pricing.... (Score:2)
Of course they need China... (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Of course they need China... (Score:4, Funny)
It's okay, honest mistake.
Due to the mess that Microsoft constantly makes (Score:5, Funny)
Mirror, Mirror on the wall (Score:5, Funny)
Probably not the first question I'd ask, probably more like, what the hell am I going to buy today?
Re:Mirror, Mirror on the wall (Score:2)
51% share in Diebold. Who controls the vote count, controls the election results, as Batyushka Stalin used to say.
Imagine all you can do with a puppet president in place!
It's not the Need but (Score:4, Interesting)
Because of the piracy and other situation, the optimum pricing strategy in China might well be different from of other countries.
Re:It's not the Need but (Score:2)
Wrong Approach (Score:4, Insightful)
Microsoft can't defeat the 90% piracy by themselves, that's insane. They have to encourage (or entice) government enforcement if they want to successful transform a nation that only knows theft into a nation that is a legal consumer.
A restrictive operating system is a pitiful attempt at making in-roads into China. Microsoft's approach is completely misguided.
Re:Wrong Approach (Score:3, Insightful)
It's the government (Score:5, Interesting)
The home segment will continue to pirate software as there is little enforcement of law, if they exist, and primarily because it is so much cheaper to buy pirated copies.
For example here in India the cost of a pirated copy of windows is 1/10th of the cost of a legit copy. Nobody cares about support anyways.
The government offices are the next target. In Asia and specially in countries like communist China the biggest employer is the government. So you can easily guess that more people=more desktops=more sales. But Microsoft is frustrated that it cannot use it's traditional tactics of getting people to resist change by not switching from windows as in most cases people are starting out from scratch and if they latch on to Linux as a desktop OS they will resist changing from that as that is what they have been used to. An example is how the Chinese goverment is developing it's own version of Linux to counter dependence on Microsoft.
It will turn out to be an interesting fight.
Re:It's the government (Score:2, Interesting)
This might ensure that they have a foothold in the trends of a growing economy while at the same time have a diversified risk, in terms of what the market there is like and what pricing p
Re:It's the government (Score:2)
As a home user, you don't get much support from MS anyway. If you got the OS with the computer, MS will redirect you to the manufacturer.
Re:It's the government (Score:2)
This is true in many Western countries, too.
The United States government employs roughly 2.7 million people [opm.gov], though that includes about 800 thousand in the postal service and 700 thousand in the military...
Yes, they need China (Score:5, Insightful)
1) Most other multi-national corporations need the emerging market of China in order to keep their growing revenue.
2) Microsoft needs the business of those multi-mational corporations in order to keep their marketshare and revenue.
3) Those multi-national corporations are opening offices and hiring employees in China.
If Microsoft doesn't have China as a market, then these new offices and new employees will be able to introduce 'alternative' operating systems within the corporate infrastructure.
This will probably be happening anyway - but Microsoft can't afford to let it happen without a fight. In fact, it is arguable that piracy in China is actually in Microsoft's best interest at this point.
Re:Yes, they need China (Score:2)
This might also be the way to get XML to become the glue that binds it all togather. I would assume that the emerging countries would use OOo and then if M$O would read and right XML files too...
The Real Question... (Score:2, Interesting)
Does China need Microsoft?
The other question... (Score:3, Interesting)
Will China respect the GPL?
Re:The other question... (Score:4, Interesting)
No. Not a chance in hell.
The chinnesse gvmnt will need their ugly spyware to remain out of the hands of smart chinnesse citizens.
So, what are we going to do about it?
I think we cannot do much. But it might be leveraged by Microsoft to single out linux as something that the Pinkos use to opress the chinnesse people, which will be true, although slightly out of context.
Re:The other question... (Score:2)
Hmm. This article is not entirely dealing in fact. (Score:3, Insightful)
M$ is reviled here, that's for shure. And its insistence on adherence on illegal marketing practices, and f*ck the anti-trust, is the main cause, followed closely by its buggy, security flawed software is the reasin why.
Furthermore the thought that the computing market is anywhere near a "mature market" is just plain wrong.
We haven't begun to see the innovations in UI and processing capacity that will suggest themselves when our machines are no longer deaf, dumb and blind.
This was a "rah-rah" article, but it was very short sighted.
It's not about the revenue (Score:5, Insightful)
Microsoft has plenty of money, it's not going to run out any time soon.
The real issue is what China will do instead of using Microsoft software. They have to use something. That's an incredible amount of resources the Chinese government and businesses have that will go to Microsoft's competitors.
When the German government decided to shift its employees to Linux, they provided resources that greatly improved the KDE groupware infrastructure. Imagine what the whole of China could give us. Now see why it's important for Microsoft to dominate the Chinese market?
There is a more important question: (Score:3, Interesting)
Microsoft produces nothing that has any advantage outside the typical American top-heavy company that is full of office drones and PHBs, and has all actual work being done somewhere else (say, in China). Lack of this kind of organization is one of the reasons why China's economy can sustain its growth.
Piracy provides enough Microsoft products in China for home users and companies where they are not important for the job being done (therefore those users aren't going to buy them at full price anyway), and the economy as a whole would be better off with Microsoft not playing any active role in it, so why bother?
The irony of Linux in a centralized society (Score:2, Insightful)
It is ironic that China is turning to Linux as an alternative to MS. Linux's genesis is based on a very decentralized western style meritocracy. Only the freedoms of liberal democracies could produce something like Linux.
Re:The irony of Linux in a centralized society (Score:2)
It will be so much better "next time" (Score:2)
The Chinese are not anywhere near as locked into MS as the western world. For them, this IS "next time". They can learn from our mistakes. If we had it to do all over again, there are many things we would build differently -- the streets of Boston, for example.
The whole concept of large-scale open source development is very much in line with Asian concept of group participation. Of course, there is
Why China doesn't matter much (Score:2)
MS needs Asia (Score:3, Insightful)
Because we're going to be sitting around pointing fingers at each other, bitchin' about IP's,while people in Asia are just using there frickin computers to get shit done.
Hey, whatever we can do to keep the lawyers off unemployment.
I'm glad I had poor schooling, if I had a proper education, this would drive me insane.
Monopoly pricing (Score:3, Insightful)
Does Microsoft need China? Not in the short term. Can Microsoft retain its present position if China goes the Open Source route? I doubt very much it can--once the Chinese and the Open Source community are attack Microsoft from different directions, Microsoft will be toast.
It's all about out-sourcing (Score:3, Interesting)
This strategy has worked with India as they pump out so much M$ crap that it scares me.
Microsoft needs to get to China's schools. (Score:3, Insightful)
Oh yeah, once they're hooked... and completely under MS's will, start jacking the price around... every year, change the licensing scheme to get every last yen? What's the currency in China? Certainly not the dollar or the euro. Silk?? Whatever it is... MS will do their best to eek out every last shilling from the Chinese.
Re:Microsoft needs to get to China's schools. (Score:2)
Answer: Maybe (Score:2)
If China at some point becomes a wide open (technically speaking) market with the ability for people buy anything they want and use any software, then yes MS needs China. If China remains pretty closed, then they are closed to other software as well. MS doesn't need China.
The question boils down to profits and market share. American shareholders like it when a company proves it can grow it's profits and at least maintain or increase it
Tea (Score:3, Funny)
Monopoly Pricing Power (Score:2)
Re:Will countries who've adopted Linux need Micros (Score:2)
Who knows, Windows may well develop to the point where it is again the superior operating system. And if Office (which is MS's realy money-maker) were to support Linux and supported open file formats, I would most likely be willing to purchase it even while using Linux.
Re:Does any one here... (Score:2)
About the worst you can say is that policy makers in China have been buying up inflowing dollar assets to ward off inflation. Inflation would theoretically reduce American demand for Chinese products and push the trade balance towards equilibrium. It would also make life unlivable for many Chinese in major urban centers whose income is less than
Re:Does any one here... (Score:2)
You can argue that central steps to prevent inflation domestically are putting deflationary pressure on China's trading partners, but not much else. Americans seem predisposed to taking the fixed exchange rate as de facto manipulation. Which is pretty ignorant. No-one would ever make the same claim about the Unite