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Modeling Urban Panic 105

Posted by ScuttleMonkey from the godzilla-disappointed dept.
Schneier is reporting that Arizona State University's Paul Torrens has been developing a computer simulation to model urban panic. "The goal of this project is to develop a reusable and behaviorally founded computer model of pedestrian movement and crowd behavior amid dense urban environments, to serve as a test-bed for experimentation." The simulation tests behaviors from how a crowd flees from a burning car to how a pathogen might be transmitted through a mobile pedestrian over time among others.
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Modeling Urban Panic More

Modeling Urban Panic

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  • You need a simulation for this? (Score:5, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 14, 2008 @05:45PM (#22041342)

    The simulation tests behaviors from how a crowd flees from a burning car

    Hmmm... my guess is AWAY from the burning car.

    • Re:You need a simulation for this? (Score:5, Interesting)

      by evanbd ( 210358 ) on Monday January 14, 2008 @05:50PM (#22041428)

      Of course you do.

      Any time you want to answer the question "What will happen to X in the event of Y?" you either need to try it, or you need a model. Your model ("crowd moves away") probably gives correct results, but not detailed ones. If you want more detailed results, with answers to more detailed questions (How fast? Which direction? How does it change with pedestrian density? How do obstacles matter?) then you need a better model.

      If you want to improve pedestrian traffic, police response, crowd control... This model could be quite helpful.

      • Re:You need a simulation for this? (Score:5, Insightful)

        by phobos13013 ( 813040 ) on Monday January 14, 2008 @06:15PM (#22041860)
        It could be, but I believe some parameters of the modeling AI need to be changed. Take a look at the massive crowd evacuating through the small aperture. The crowds on the fringe just stand there and pile up while the late-comers in the middle flow right through since the fringes dont move. In a real crowd (even under regular evacuation measures and not one in a "panic") would never go for this! People would constantly be trying to overcome the person not moving in front of them! The fringe individuals would immediately relocate to the center which is dwindling in length.

        I don't think this model takes a lot of human behavior into consideration. One requirement could be that the individuals never stop moving, they will always take the available (open) path towards the exit even if it is not the straight line path which they are lined up in queue for. It also doesn't take into the consideration of a possibility of a trample situation where perhaps a threshold value of energy from a surging crowd overcomes the resistance of the small group of slower moving individuals in front. But of course, this is a great start for a complex computational issue!

        • There's more than movement, too (Score:5, Interesting)

          by blueZ3 ( 744446 ) on Monday January 14, 2008 @06:42PM (#22042368) Homepage
          Those people on the outside are pressing against the folks in the middle and people at the back are pressing forward. The nice stream shown doesn't appear to account for this, especially as none of the sims are crushed, trampled, or otherwise flattened in the mad rush to the door.

          IRL, people on the outsides frantically push their way toward the exit, creating pressure on those in the center that frequently results in a crush of bodies that this model doesn't seem to model very well. If you've ever been in a situation where the crowd pressure to pass through a bottleneck is so strong that you can't move backward, hold still, or even effectively resist the rush, you know what I'm talking about.

          This model seems to be a "in a perfect world, where the panicked crowd moves cooperatively and generally in an orderly fashion towards the exits" kind of model. It's hard to see how that's very useful in the context suggested (panic response).
          • Clearly wasn't writen by someone in Tokyo then... (^-^)

            It's a shame the results aren't credible. If you could demonstrate that a basement carpark in a big assed shopping centre only needed a fire isolated stair every 60m rather than every 40m then that could save millions. Oh wait they did (under particular conditions).

            Anyway, These things have been around for a while. The main thing is that they've needed someone with a phD in computational fluid dynamics to drive them on a box that costs a wee bit too.

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by Lumpy ( 12016 )
          Exactly, anyone that has ever witnessed a panic like that with a chokepoint that small knows that fights will break out, trampling of people will happen (add in about 6-7 dead children in the chokepoint) etc...

          There is ZERO civility in a panic, humanity regresses to animal instincts quite fast.

      • Any time you want to answer the question "What will happen to X in the event of Y?" you either need to try it, or you need a model.


        Of course, if there happens to be a country at war... say, I dunno... Iraq... where events like burning cars in populated areas happen regularly, we could always just pay attention ;)

    • "how a crowd flees from a burning car"

      Crowds don't flee from burning cars any more than they flee from the scene of a burning building - they stand around and gawk. Just look at the traffic jams as rubberneckers slow down to look at a car on fire on the highway, or even just smoke coming out from under the hood.

      • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

        by mangu ( 126918 )

        Crowds don't flee from burning cars any more than they flee from the scene of a burning building

        They certainly do, if they are inside.

        • Re:You need a simulation for this? (Score:5, Funny)

          by trolltalk.com ( 1108067 ) on Monday January 14, 2008 @07:12PM (#22042934) Homepage Journal

          Crowds don't flee from burning cars any more than they flee from the scene of a burning building
          They certainly do, if they are inside.

          ... and how the fsck do you get a crowd into a car? Round up a bunch of midgets at the local circus, stuff them in, toss some gasoline on them, and light it? That'll attract a crowd, for sure ...

        • Re: (Score:1, Offtopic)

          by totally bogus dude ( 1040246 )

          In that case, they flee from the perceived danger zone, and then they stop to gawk. Also you normally don't find much of a "crowd" within a single vehicle, unless you're in S.A.

          It's not so certain everyone inside the car would flee, in any case. For example, would Chuck Norris flee? I don't think so. Neither would MacGuyver.

          Natalie Portman probably wouldn't flee either, but that's just because her grits are already so hot she wouldn't notice the heat from the fire. If she actually saw the flames, she'd

        • Re: (Score:1)

          by VShael ( 62735 )
          Yeah, funny, but truthfully not always.

          I was at a hotel in England a few years ago, which was packed. (Okay, it was the scene of an SF convention....)
          Anyway, around 2am, the fire alarm went off.

          The way the hotel was evacuated in an orderly non-panicked almost casual fashion, was pretty damn impressive.

          Therefore, I think the models need a modifier ( If British then Stiff_Upper_Lip++ )


    • The simulation tests behaviors from how a crowd flees from a burning car

      Hmmm... my guess is AWAY from the burning car.
      Not even close! The crowd will stand and gawp at the burning car.

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by snoddy ( 94324 )
      Hmmm... my guess is you live in a warm country.

  • 5) identify, if possible, the tell-tale signs of a peaceful crowd about to metamorphosize into a hellish mob;
    Post a story about Microsoft/Sony/SCO, that sort of thing?

    • Number 4 is funnier (Score:5, Funny)

      by spun ( 1352 ) <loverevolutionary@@@yahoo...com> on Monday January 14, 2008 @06:24PM (#22041992) Journal

      4) design a mall which can compel customers to shop to the point of bankruptcy, to walk obliviously for miles and miles and miles, endlessly to the point of physical exhaustion and even death;
      Now that's what I call science! Now, if only we could design a website that compelled people to browse, even to the point of losing their jobs, reading obliviously to their need to shower, posting endlessly to the point of mental confusion and even complete retardation... Oh, wait...

      • determine how various urban typologies, such as plazas, parks, major arterial streets and banlieues, can be reconfigured in situ into a neutralizing force when crowds do become riotous

        According to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banlieue), "les banlieues" can be translated as suburbs, brothels or housing projects. It might be a good idea to find out which of these is being tested -- it's likely to make a big difference in how they can be reconfigured.

  • Yes but can it model... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by billius ( 1188143 ) on Monday January 14, 2008 @05:47PM (#22041374)
    a zombie attack? And if so, can it compensate for the differences between slow-moving George Romero zombies and fast-moving British zombies?

    • Godzilla Model? (Score:4, Funny)

      by saudadelinux ( 574392 ) on Monday January 14, 2008 @05:51PM (#22041454)
      How can you have an urban panic without modeling a big, gray, atomic-breathed monster? Are they gonna CGI him, or Tron in some guy in a suit? :D

    • Re:Yes but can it model... (Score:4, Informative)

      by morgan_greywolf ( 835522 ) on Monday January 14, 2008 @05:57PM (#22041558) Homepage Journal
      Apparently, this can [kevan.org]. (Linked in TFA)

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Amorymeltzer ( 1213818 )
      I think you might find this [kevan.org] interesting, if you haven't seen it before. It's a cool little zombie infection simulation. Not complex, but has some cool ideas, such as having non-panicked people becoming panicked when they see another human who is panicked.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Black Art ( 3335 )
      What about SlashDot Zombies [ubergeek.tv]?

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by R2.0 ( 532027 )
      Add to that the really-fast-moving "I Am Legend" zombies. Say what you will about the movie; those bastards MOVED.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by jollyreaper ( 513215 )

      a zombie attack? And if so, can it compensate for the differences between slow-moving George Romero zombies and fast-moving British zombies?
      And can the system tell the difference between a cult classic and a crass hollywood remake?
    • Actually, you want to optimize your zombie horde with a mixture of fast and slow moving members. That way you get successive waves of brain eating obsession that no actor or sex starved teenager can ever hope to withstand.

    • Well, not to trumpet my own horn, but *my* simulation accurately simulated panic crowd dynamics across multiple solution domains.

      My simulation found that standing around waiting for the elite body-armored SWAT/SEAL anti-zombie strike force was the default human response even though the elite body-armored SWAT/SEAL anti-zombie strike force couldn't figure out to shoot the damn things in the head which was the obvious solution even to the chick with the shotgun who acts by looking through her eyebrows all
  • This should make factoring the optimum escape path from the impending zombie apocalypse trivial!

    Does it account for transmission of pathogen by saliva?

  • didn't they do this... (Score:5, Funny)

    by notgm ( 1069012 ) on Monday January 14, 2008 @05:49PM (#22041404)
    didn't they do model this already in the Grand Theft Auto series?

    step a. pedestrian looks at event.
    step b. pedestrian throws hands in air.
    step c. pedestrian runs away.
    step d. pedestrian gets winded, approximately 1/2 block from event.
    step e. pedestrian forgets event.
    step f. pedestrian walks around aimlessly.
    step g. (sometimes) pedestrian's head explodes, becomes event triggering new step a.

    seemed pretty darn realistic to me.
    • Did Rockstar make State of Emergency before or after GTA3?
      • Definitely after. The implementation of crowd motion in that game was derived from a more general brownian motion algorithm. The individuals in the crowd didn't really interact with the setting as much as they swirled around in it.
    • Yeah, if you consider head-exploding people with sudden amnesia realistic.

  • I can answer one of these (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Malevolent Tester ( 1201209 ) * on Monday January 14, 2008 @05:51PM (#22041440) Journal
    5) identify, if possible, the tell-tale signs of a peaceful crowd about to metamorphosize into a hellish mob;

    Riot police. I've seen several demonstrations turn violent, and every single time it was preceded by riot police either attacking people (I've seen Metropolitan Police TSG hit a pregnant woman for talking back to them), herding people into an enclosed space and beating those who try and get out or baton charging a peaceful crowd.*

    *This is not to say the police cause all riots, but they're certainly a factor in at least some of them.
  • when Hollywood has done several [imdb.com] studies [imdb.com] on fleeing [imdb.com] citizens [imdb.com] already?
    • There is actually a better movie on the subject. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0097889 [imdb.com]
      Miracle Mile deals with the spread of panic started from a single phone call.

      • Re: (Score:1)

        by John3 ( 85454 )
        Forgot about that one. We rented video tapes in my hardware store back when Miracle Mile came out and it was one of the videos we could recommend to customers. We were known for recommending the films that flew under the radar until they hit video...in addition to MM we had a lot of success renting F/X, The Hidden, and House of Games. Too bad that "personal" touch is gone from most video rental locations. A large reason people will use Netflix and VoD is because there is no longer a real person at the v

  • Yes but... (Score:3, Funny)

    by grub ( 11606 ) <slashdot@grub.net> on Monday January 14, 2008 @05:52PM (#22041470) Homepage Journal

    ... can it predict how a crowd in Times Square will flee from the goatse guy being displayed on the jumbotron?

  • Why simulate it? (Score:4, Funny)

    by rucs_hack ( 784150 ) on Monday January 14, 2008 @05:55PM (#22041532)
    All you have to do is knock out the west coast's WoW access on a saturday and wait.
    • Can WoW players even find their front door anymore, much less start a riot?

      It'll be the slowest moving riot in history, and easily defeated by water cannons loaded with Mountain Dew.

      I tried to fit Cheese Doodles into the joke somewhere, but I failed. I am unworthy.

  • by just studying a soccer match.

  • Wow. First, Shawn of the Dead was on this weekend. Then this story comes on. It's good they are building a more advanced way of modeling this, the previous way [kevan.org] was rather simple.

    Not my program, I found it years ago. There is a port of the 3D version on my site that I updated to run on OS X.

  • 4) design a mall which can compel customers to shop to the point of bankruptcy, to walk obliviously for miles and miles and miles, endlessly to the point of physical exhaustion and even death;
    For the love of humanity, DO NOT let Neiman Marcus get hold of this information! They're already quite advanced on the bankruptcy part.

  • Links to the Rendered Videos (Score:5, Interesting)

    by phobos13013 ( 813040 ) on Monday January 14, 2008 @06:04PM (#22041682)
    Much more interesting than the Schneir description of the actual site in question. Here [geosimulation.org] they have fully rendered videos from multiple vantages of the studies amongst other research topics of the professor.
  • I welcome our new Second Foundation overlords!

    Hey! Get that Mule out of here!

  • Significant problem... (Score:3, Insightful)

    by RingDev ( 879105 ) on Monday January 14, 2008 @06:12PM (#22041828) Homepage Journal
    The demo they show of the modeler shows scenarios where the subjects want to get to some place. That's neat and all, but in a panic, people aren't trying to get TO some place, they are trying to get AWAY from some place.

    -Rick

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Splab ( 574204 )
      Wrong. You can easily have a panic where people are trying to get to a place. Think of a stadium, something happens (fire, explosion) people are trying to get TO an exit before they try to get away from the stadium.

      Panic is just people acting stupid in a stressed situation.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by RingDev ( 879105 )
        I disagree. This model works really well for orderly, even rushed orderly egress. Those same patterns are actually visible if you are in a vantage point to see them. For instance, I used to go to rock concerts at an indoor stadium in Madison, WI called the Colosseum (I think it's now the 'Alliant Energy Center' or some non-sense). The floor was open admission, so there would be hundreds, if not thousands of people all in the one area. There were two main exits from the floor, both 20' wide tunnels that lead
    • Remember the (admittedly not very many) times when extremely steep sales [bloggossip.com] at some stores [cnn.com] have prompted mass rushes? I would expect yes, far more often it is the other way around, but depending on how you define "mass panic", they have indeed occurred when people are trying to get to, and not from, a place. And if you're operating a chain, I would think this new model might be useful to avoid riots in your parking lots.
  • Back when I played Grand Theft Auto, I'd blow up a car in a crowd of people then watch them scatter. The ones who caught fire were my favorites. True story!

  • Been there done that (Score:5, Interesting)

    by JustNiz ( 692889 ) on Monday January 14, 2008 @06:21PM (#22041942)
    My CS AI prof at University of Reading had done this about 15 years ago, following the tube train fire at Kings Cross, London.
    He created a model of the station and passengers, programmed only about 6 simple rules into the movenent of each passenger, and found that the model pretty accurately recreated where they found the actual bodies in the station.
    • Wasn't there some darpa grants going around 2003 or so about doing these sorts of sims for major cities, figuring out where bottlenecks would happen in case of say a dirty bomb in the middle of the city, etc. this isn't exactly "new".
  • There's already a zombie simulator [kevan.org]. Save some research dollars and use that!
  • There was a fun Atari game called Agent USA that did this way back in 1984.
    Czech it out! http://classicgaming.gamespy.com/View.php?view=GameMuseum.Detail&id=33 [gamespy.com]

  • Actual link (Score:2, Informative)

    by zimage ( 6623 )
    The included link is for a blog that links to a blog which links to the actual website: http://www.geosimulation.org/crowds/ [geosimulation.org]

  • Okay, so by 2012 I should have a gaming platform (Score:4, Funny)

    by blair1q ( 305137 ) on Monday January 14, 2008 @06:29PM (#22042072) Journal
    with a CPU, a GPU, a PPU, a P'PU, a SAPU, a DIADRPU[TM], a TBNPU, and a CULCAOPU

    * Central Processing Unit
    * Graphics Processing Unit
    * Physics Processing Unit
    * Panic Processing Unit
    * Sexual Arousal Processing Unit
    * DRM Infringement Attempt Detection and Reporting Processing Unit(R)
    * Terabit Network Processing Unit
    * Computer Upgrade Loan Consolidation Assistance Offer Processing Unit

  • Actual link (Score:3, Informative)

    by zimage ( 6623 ) on Monday January 14, 2008 @06:32PM (#22042138) Homepage
    The link in the summary doesn't link to Dr. Torrens' actual research, but a blog about it. Here's the research's website: http://www.geosimulation.org/crowds/ [geosimulation.org]
  • So will it be able to simulate a anthrax covered minivan with seven free Wii systems in the trunk? Seems impossibly complex to me.

    They should remember that sometimes it's cheaper to do experiments in real life.
  • ... the "where do we put the guys with tasers" problem.
  • I was under the impression that urban panic is already well documented for many different scenarios, and I can't see how modelling it in a computer/mathematical simulation is in any way groundbreaking. It seems like the type of project you might set undergraduate students to do as a run of the mill exercise not something particularly groundbreaking and newsworthy.

    Is there something about this particular approach that makes it groundbreaking?

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by Prof.Phreak ( 584152 )
      One use is finding bottlenecks in new construction or city planning. if a dirty bomb blows up in the middle of the city, what will cripple evacuation?

      It's not something that can be done once and that's it. It's something where every new construction/change needs to be modeled. Even new technology (like cell phones) can change the crowd behavior.

  • Direct link (Score:4, Informative)

    by Dan100 ( 1003855 ) on Monday January 14, 2008 @06:48PM (#22042496) Homepage
    to the research [geosimulation.org]. Even better, the ASU press release went out seven months ago [asu.edu].
  • ... shutdown /. for a few days. What the hell would I do all day - work? I'm getting creeped out just thinking about it.

  • Schneier is reporting that Arizona State University's Paul Torrens has been developing a computer simulation to model urban panic.

    Just come to Boston when it snows heavily mid-day on a workday. Last time it snowed:

    • Employers/employees freaked out, and people started going home around 1PM
    • Plows couldn't get around because of the traffic, so snow started to build up.
    • Collisions started happening because of the snow depth, people are fucking morons and can't drive in the snow, have shitty tires. Even m
  • The first thing I thought of when I saw this was how nice it would have been to have in 2005 (see item #3 in the article). Somehow, nobody predicted that telling the people of Galveston that there was a storm headed their way and they should evacuate would cause mass hysteria and evacuation of just about all of Harris County (as far as 80 miles from the coast). As many of you remember, the results were terrible. More people died on the road than by the hurricane itself.

    With proper modeling of urban panic

  • The summary links to a weblog [http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2008/01/modeling_urban.html] which itself links to a weblog [http://pruned.blogspot.com/2007/06/modeling-urban-panic.html] which finally links to the article [http://www.geosimulation.org/crowds/] [geosimulation.org]

    Sheesh.
  • Am I the only one who thinks they are researching this just to figure out the best spots to install
    these babies. [engadget.com]

  • Certianly interesting... (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Gat0r30y ( 957941 ) on Monday January 14, 2008 @07:23PM (#22043148) Homepage Journal
    I wonder how this model can compensate for cultural differences. I was recently in China, where outside of major cities (Shanghai, Beijing) closer to the country (even in very large cities) there is no concept of waiting in line. It takes some getting used to, even after a month of acclimatizing I couldn't help but try to form a line, like i'm the one westerner who's going to show the 4 million people of Wuxi China how to wait in a line. How would crowds with that sort of cultural leaning move vs. say a very polite crowd where everyone tries to let other people go in front? How might these factors get paramaterized?

    On another note the mall designed to get people to shop to death is about the scariest thing Ive ever heard of. After hearing of that I'm pretty sure this will end up being used for evil.
    • On another note the mall designed to get people to shop to death is about the scariest thing Ive ever heard of.

      Meh. It's already a solved problem.
  • you're supposed to run AWAY from the burning car. This model is clearly not based in the projects.
  • I think it would be pretty cool to use say the Sims video game data and these visualization techniques to explore different phenomena in a virtual world.

  • What about a dynamic environments... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by moncho ( 1177945 ) on Monday January 14, 2008 @07:39PM (#22043380)
    This completely reminded me of the opening of the London Millennium Bridge in London (crossing the Thames) were the bridge (nicknamed the Wobbly bridge) began to sway due to a few pedestrians who, by happenstance, inadvertently stepped in the same direction at the same time, causing a slight sway which on the rebound caused a few more people to step into the same direction, causing further swaying, increasing the effect w/ every oscillation. This effect is known as Synchronous Lateral Excitation. The funny thing is that each step, even several in synchrony, have negligible effects on bridge stress models... it was that this particular sway happened in such a way that forced more pedestrians on the bridge to step INTO the direction of the sway, continuing until most everyone on the bridge (up to 2,000 pedestrians) were contributing energy to the sway. The aforementioned is an instance of an unexpected design flaw due to inadequate modeling, and one can always come up w/ such instances, but these are meant to be learned and avoided... not repeated.
  • that their work will be subject to some experimental validation shortly. Let's hope we all survive the test.
  • Let me know when they get to the real world testing.
  • HOLY SHIT, THAT TAXI IS GOING TO RUN ME OVER!!!!!!!!!

    There you go. Didn't even need a complicated simulation.

  • In using the pathogens possibility, one presumes people know the existance of pathogens and thus flee.

    In absence of that knowledge, of use would be a model based on a car not exploding, but being in some "lucky dip" prize at a dealership. People would converge tightly. Then disperse.

    Much like I saw one time at a LAN party when someone put down a pile of pr0n CD's.
  • These computer scientists [urbanterror.net] have already developed a simulation of Urban Terror. Perhaps these two useful projects can share data, or even possibly merge!
  • This will be so important to my SimCity urban destruction scenarios. Those little animations of running and screaming people are just so unconvincing!
  • Why did we get linked to a blog that links to another blog that finally links to the source material?
  • Even though this research may not do me any good personally if I were in a panicking crowd situation... I'm glad it's being done. I am definitely fearful of being in large frenzied crowds. Perhaps it's being fueled by certain apocalyptic movies like 28 Days Later, I am Legend, or War of the Worlds. The image of thousands of other people with their own agenda to survive jam packed beside me is a horrible, horrible thing.
  • ...about urban panic can be divined from watching Godzilla movies whilst passing the ol' bong.

    In fact, that's what inspired the idea for this study: They were sitting around at a party doing just that, when the weed touched off one of those deeeep, meaningful conversations about the screaming masses in Tokyo that went on for a few hours. Then they wrote it up and called it a study.
  • This reminds me of MouseHaus, a collaborative pedestrian simulation environment. Here's a video -- the pedestrian simulation stuff is about 2/3 into it. http://code.arc.cmu.edu/lab/html/video59.html [cmu.edu]

    It was done by collaborators of my advisor.
  • I remember a documentary that said that a crowd of people is considered to flow like a fluid and the basic rules of fluid mechanics apply. The people in the documentary were designing new soccer stadiums with "diffusers [wikipedia.org]" in them to slow the flow of people so no one will be trampled during a soccer riot. This research appears to take a little more psychological approach. However, it is not something totally new.

  • The simulation tests behaviors from how a crowd flees from a burning car
    This simulation is called "France".

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