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Microsoft Sees Stronger XP Sales in FY08 243

Rude Awakening wrote with a PC World article, saying that XP sales will actually be higher next year than they were in 2007. Despite Vista's release, Microsoft admitted this week that it expects the previous version of its operating system to make up a larger percentage of its OS sales in 2008. "According to Liddell, Microsoft will generate the same revenue, more or less, under the new Vista vs. XP numbers, although there might be some slight differences because Vista sales have tended to involve more of the higher-priced versions, dubbed premium by the company, than has XP. The financial forecast didn't spell out that directly, however. The only clue was a US$120 million difference in what Microsoft pegged as the 'undelivered elements' it assigned to unearned income for the coming year."
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Microsoft Sees Stronger XP Sales in FY08

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  • by LehiNephi ( 695428 ) on Saturday July 21, 2007 @07:09AM (#19936931) Journal
    I can think of a couple reasons why XP sales would be higher, both related to the release of Vista. First, you have people who don't want to switch (rather than "upgrade" or "downgrade"--I'm trying not to troll) to Vista, and so they're buying XP while they still can. Secondly, you have people buying computers with Vista, deciding they don't like it, and buying a license of XP instead. And on top of that, many of the Tier 1 OEMs still offer XP as an option. Sometimes it's the default option. And sometimes it's the only option.

    I'll admit that this is pure speculation, but if true, I find it interesting that the release of the new, "better than ever" version of a product is driving sales of the old (but still serviceable) version. It kinda reminds me of when Linksys came out with their WRT54G v.5.
  • The Cynic in me... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by NeoTron ( 6020 ) <kevin@NoSPAM.scarygliders.net> on Saturday July 21, 2007 @07:16AM (#19936951) Homepage
    The Ironic Cynic in me says Microsoft released Vista /EXACTLY/ to increase it's sales of XP :P
  • Vista is a failure (Score:5, Interesting)

    by realdodgeman ( 1113225 ) on Saturday July 21, 2007 @07:17AM (#19936959) Homepage
    Vista is a failure. It always has been, and it still is. Microsoft try to tell you otherwise, but that doesn't make it any less of a failure.

    I hope and think that people are starting to realize that newer is not always better, and at the same time realizing that Microsoft doesn't always tell the truth. I also hope and think that this will speed up the adoption of Linux for the desktop, even if it is not quite ready for everybody yet.

    (Excuse my English, I am Norwegian.)
  • by sapgau ( 413511 ) on Saturday July 21, 2007 @07:22AM (#19936977) Journal
    Agreed, the other big reason is that corporate users haven't switched to Vista. I still haven't heard of any of our customers planning on Vista yet. If they take months before releasing a security update or service pack for XP, I can't see how they could be preparing for Vista now.

    At the very minimum corporate users will wait until their lease expires on their Dells and then will see if they demand XP to be included in their new machines!!!
  • by MichaelSmith ( 789609 ) on Saturday July 21, 2007 @07:36AM (#19937025) Homepage Journal

    I hope and think that people are starting to realize that newer is not always better, and at the same time realizing that Microsoft doesn't always tell the truth. I also hope and think that this will speed up the adoption of Linux for the desktop, even if it is not quite ready for everybody yet.

    I am a Linux user at my workplace but the Windows systems we have all run XP. Our IT people will buy Vista when they can use it across the entire site. Until then they will deploy new systems with the old OS.

    Excuse my English, I am Norwegian.

    There is nothing wrong with your English.

  • by Opportunist ( 166417 ) on Saturday July 21, 2007 @08:44AM (#19937261)
    First, companies became aware that a finished MS product has at least a SP2 attached to it. Not trolling here, but look back and think for a moment. Which MS OS was really considerably reliable to produce no undesired effects before it was an SP2 version?

    Then there's that driver issue. For much legacy hardware, you'll not get certified Vista drivers, or drivers that won't work 100% reliably under Vista. Even for current hardware, you sometimes still have troubles integrating it seamlessly. Not really the fault of MS, just a matter of a lot of very different hardware in existance with manufacturers who're slow to adopt to a market that isn't as large as it was predicted to be.

    Then there's TCP/DRM. A lot of people are actually insecure of just how it works, a lot of spin has been delivered and a lot of scare has been dealt. Some of it was justified, but I've heard so much nonsensical BS that I can see why some people think their beloved copied movies will cease to work if they use Vista.

    Then there's the licensing model of "phoning home" at least once every 6 months or it stops working. Not to mention the monthly revelation of just what Vista keeps stored and transmits to MS.

    And finally that a lot of the new features in Vista are not really a seller. Yes, they're nice to have and offer some value, but nothing new that cannot be achived by third party tools. Many people who want these features will rather try to get a tool for free instead of switching to a new OS.

    Bottom line: People prefer to use what they know. Especially when they've learned by now that an MS system takes about 1-2 years after release to be "finished". People don't want to be paying Betatesters anymore. And neither do companies.
  • by 3seas ( 184403 ) on Saturday July 21, 2007 @09:09AM (#19937389) Homepage Journal
    ...vista sucking will result in promotion for Linux.

    Only don't promote Vista as a Linux user, Instead promote it like you work for MS.

    Lets all face it, new and improved functionality must be weighed against new and improved problems and user constraints to have to again learn all about and deal with.

    Who really wants to do that?

    I was resistant to XP when it came out and I have never purchased a copy but use it at work and find it installed on systems people toss and I grab up or systems others give me. Do I like XP better than windows 98? Yes, some, as it has improvements that I could do without but are nicer than windows 98. But it also has irritations I'd rather not have that windows 98 doesn't have.

    And that just a comparison of windows to windows. I use Linux 90%, or better, of the time at home. I have used Knoppix, still have it installed on one system but use ubuntu on my main system. (having drive trays is useful as I can swap out for windows98 as I have purchased several third party software packages and installed them on windows 98).

    Of the windows XP boxes, I use one briefly for bellsouth/AT&T and linksys router control, because they only support windows (idiots). But I can and do run the live cd of linux dynebolic on them.

    I have numerious systems including several PPC macs pre-osx and one imac post osx (interesting machine).
    I have systems that have MS DOS - pre-windows and later versions and onece had to deal with MS ME trash.
    Somewhere I have a MFM drive dual bootable (probably doesn't spin anymore) with old Minix on it.

    I still have an Amiga 1000 and an Amiga 4000/toaster system.

    The point is: I've tried a lot of different system, more than mentioned.

    But what do I really want of an OS?

    Of course I want a wide range of quality software I'm interested in, to run on it, thats a given.

    The Amiga is the closest, and I'd probably like BeOS too.

    But the problem here is that they are no longer reasonably supported and off shoots like AROS and BeOS's open source versions are yet to reach production level.

    DragonFly BSD seems promising as does the Hurd and Minix 3, but they too lack in current state.

    Overall I am greatly disappointed with the computer industry in regards to Operating Systems.

    All things weighed, GNU/Linux currently gets the most points, But I don't consider it 100% Free Software, as there really are a lot of built in constraints.

    100% FreeSoftware will only happen when software is easy enough to create that most anyone can do it, just as today most anyone can use a calculator.

    Windows is very much the opposite of free, and the most pathetic example of MS dumbing down the users (a crime against consumers) is changing the names of applications and functionality and in general taking away functionality that should be considered fundamental. Philosophy being - make the users think they are stupid while giving teh professionals more to re-learn and charge for.

    While GNU/Linux applies has it constraints one what the users can do for themselves.

    So promote Vista ..... Remember you are an IT professional and must support your income. When the users see past windows you still can have a go at them via Linux.

    And remember, when this barbaric OS mentality is finally overcome, it won't matter to you cause you long be dead.

  • by FractalZone ( 950570 ) on Saturday July 21, 2007 @09:15AM (#19937435) Homepage
    Big companies are not known for leaping forward into new and unproven technologies, especially when most of the improvement is just user eye-candy.

    Exactly. XP was a disaster when it was first released, but like most Microsoft products, it benefitted from being beaten up by users for several years. I know of savvy computer users who still run Win2K, not because of corporate lethargy, but because it is arguably faster and more stable than XP, and has a smaller footprint, even after all the multitudinous Service Packs and other patches have been applied. Honestly, I don't do anything that depends on XP that I couldn't do with Win2K, and think downgrading to Vista would be a major step in the wrong direction. Microsoft OSes need to "age" at least three or four years before they can be trusted in the real world.

    I still say that Windows Vista is the best advertisement around for Ubuntu Linux.
  • by westlake ( 615356 ) on Saturday July 21, 2007 @09:38AM (#19937539)
    Secondly, you have people buying computers with Vista, deciding they don't like it, and buying a license of XP instead I'll admit that this is pure speculation

    All Microsoft is saying is that XP sales in FY08 will probably be up a little and Vista sales down a little from earlier projections.

    Systems entering the consumer market this fall will be "designed for Vista."

    They will perform well running Vista and will ship with DX 10 video as standard, perhaps with integrated ReadyBooost flash, hybrid hard drives, etc., as standard. They will be running second or third generation Vista drivers.

    Vista Premium has the media-center features that appeal in the home market, Ultimate the security features you want in a high-end laptop.

    How many of these buyers are likely to drift back to XP - and can you really believe that the numbers will be statistically significant?

  • by Ilmarin77 ( 964467 ) on Saturday July 21, 2007 @09:45AM (#19937581)

    * Video drivers, I'm still waiting on a 7900gtx nvidia driver that works properly. I'm not at all happy with Vista's performance and driver compatabilities. I spent over $300 on that card FOR VISTA. Why the hell ain't it working properly on my games which aren't even DX10 games. This is more of an Nvidia problem but it just adds another reason for me to not like Vista.

    Here is the explanation, why it takes so long: Vista's Content Protection: [auckland.ac.nz] In short, apparently it is very difficult to make a proper video driver for Vista.
  • by twitter ( 104583 ) on Saturday July 21, 2007 @05:58PM (#19941191) Homepage Journal

    microsoft has just posted record breaking profits and sales revenue beating the analysts in the both the last two quarters

    In an inflationary economy, anything less than "record breaking" is a decline. Declines are just fine for most businesses, but M$ pays a large share of their salary in terms of stock options and depends on perpetual growth to keep going.

    how the register managed to spin that against vista would be amazing if it wasn't so transparent.

    If it's transparent, tell me what's wrong with it. The fact is that Vista's release made no difference to M$'s bottom line, despite it's cost. At the very least, M$ has a return on investment problem because their OS no longer pays for it's creation. At the very worst, the lack of growth makes M$'s loss of power evident. They can't make money off the upgrade treadmill anymore and are out of room for growth.

  • Re:Dear Microsoft... (Score:1, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 21, 2007 @07:43PM (#19941865)
    Bill Gates (by way of comparison to Ballmer) is VERY dignified, VERY intelligent, & quite well grounded in the computer sciences (@ least by way of comparison to ballmer)...

    Therein lies the difference... Ballmer's the WRONG man to be heading Microsoft, no doubt about it in my mind... he's NOT about "building a better mousetrap", but instead ONLY about making MORE money.

Love may laugh at locksmiths, but he has a profound respect for money bags. -- Sidney Paternoster, "The Folly of the Wise"

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