The Desktop -- Time to Start Saying Goodbye? 547
Lucas123 writes "Robert Scheier at Computerworld writes that while worldwide PC shipments are expected to grow 12.2% this year, portable PC volumes are expected to grow 28% and will make up more than half of all PC shipments in the U.S. this quarter. Notebooks will dominate the worldwide PC marketplace by 2010. 'One researcher predicts it will be five to seven years before only the "die-hard" desktop users are left.'"
Re:Not until the keyboards improve (Score:3, Informative)
Die-Hard (Score:3, Informative)
I'm not sure I agree. I have two desktops at home as well as my laptop. I am a gamer, and when I play I use my workstation. It has better graphics, more memory, better sound, and bigger hard drives. Also, because I build my own systems, I do not have to pay what I do for a laptop. I also do not have to pay it all at once. I am in a constant upgrade cycle using towers that I originally purchased around 2002. Because I do not have to replace everything at once, it is less of a financial burden to keep the machine up to near cutting edge.
OK, maybe I am just one of those "die-hard" desktop users.
Quite doubtful (Score:5, Informative)
2. Upgrades. Upgrading a laptop means currently that you have to throw out the old one and buy a new one. This, too, could be seen as a minor problem, with the Joe Average User buying a new computer every few years rather than doing midlife upgrades and laptops that come across as "barebones" with interchangeable parts.
3. Vendor lock-in. Even if upgrading is possible, you often need very specific Dell/IBM/Toshiba-only parts that fit only in this brand of laptop, often also only in this series (anyone who ever wanted to up their ram in the IBM notebooks knows what I'm talking about). This is unlikely to change, since companies DO want you to be locked in. I highly doubt they'll agree to a standard.
4. Heat. The most advanced and fastest CPUs and even more GPUs produce an incredible amount of waste heat that a notebook cannot sensibly get rid of. Usually you do get a "notebook" version of those chips, but they are usually either slower or a generation behind, when more advanced production processes allow the same speed with less heat.
5. Displays. Notebooks are supposed to be small, displays can't be large enough. Unless we find a way to "fold" displays, people who want more than a 17" display will not enjoy the notebook experience. Either that or they'll grumble when they get to haul around a notebook that can house a 20" display...
5. Space. Notebooks only have so much space, unless you increase their size to inane proportions. This is most noticable for HDDs, which are hard if not impossible to upgrade, and even current notebooks hardly come with more than 200GB of storage space, something that is allright for travels, but I doubt it would make them popular with people who have a need for a lot of storage.
6. Defects. When a part of the notebook fails, you have to send it in for repairs. No user serviceable parts inside (with most models at least). When the graphics card in the desktop fails, rip it out and replace it.
The list goes on. While notebook use will certainly increase over the next years (points 1 and 2 can pretty easily be taken care of, and will), I do not see them as the all powerful replacement of desktops. They might have their place in work environments, especially when mobility is an issue, but in the private sector (and especially amongst hardcore gamers, video/audio junkies and graphics artists) the desktop will most likely survive.
Re:Games are about it (Score:3, Informative)
Desktops always just feel a lot faster to me. Maybe it has changed lately, but the harddrives used to always be painfully slow in laptops. I had a laptop that I thought was fine, but once I started using a new desktop with 22" widescreen and 10,000rpm hardrives, the laptop is a painful experience.
Re:I don't know... (Score:3, Informative)
You know HDMI is exactly the same as DVI except HDMI has audio and no VGA.
You can buy a cable online for $10 with DVI at one end and HDMI on the other.
As far as digital audio.. yeah, you're on your own.
Re:Guess I'll be one of them "die hard" desktop us (Score:2, Informative)
Re:You can have my desktop (Score:3, Informative)
ve never seen a clamshell hinge wear out, though I'm sure it's possible.
Are you kidding? Every laptop I've ever owned has had hinges that got weaker over the years. On my backup laptop, had to replace one of the hinges two years ago because it sheared off (while on vacation in Italy). The other hinge has a weak clutch, so at significant angles, the screen falls open or shut on its own. I really should replace it, but I can't easily justify dropping another $50 on a backup laptop built back in 2000. However, hinges suck pretty universally after a few years in my experience, unless of course, you replace your laptop every 2-3 years, in which case I'd imagine you would never have problems with that sort of thing. :-)
Re:You can have my desktop (Score:4, Informative)
Re:Quite doubtful (Score:2, Informative)
Maybe in a direct apples-to-apples comparison. "Equivalent" laptops are barely more expensive than desktops, where "equivalent" is more about mapping the laptop to a demographic rather than comparing raw numbers -- economy laptop/desktop, entertainment laptop/desktop, workstation laptop/desktop, etc. Of course the laptops are going to have slower CPUs, slower and smaller hard drives, slower GPUs, and so on. That's just the way it is.
How is that different than what the Joe Average User does today? They might do a mid-life memory upgrade, but that's about it. And that's quite possible on a laptop.
Stop buying from companies that lock you in. I have a ~2 year old Dell Inspiron that I've upgraded with off-the-shelf parts from Fry's. I did the RAM (increased to 2GB) and hard drive (7200rpm 100GB replacing a 5400rpm 80GB), but I could've also upgraded the CPU with an off-the-shelf part (Fry's carries laptop CPUs). The GPU is upgradeable as well, though I would have to find a specific form factor that's no longer available direct from Dell and would cost me $400+ on ebay. If I wanted, I could even upgrade my wireless card (standard mini-PCI internal card) if I wanted to get 802.11n support (my card supports b/g/a already so I don't see any need to upgrade).
Again, that really depends on the manufacturer of your notebook. Using my Dell as an example, there are multiple places online that sell various different parts (everything from new screens to the plastic bezel surroundings), and Dell has online instructions on how to completely disassemble and reassemble the laptop. I've personally replaced the keyboard on my laptop, and considered replacing the screen with a higher resolution model. If I needed to, I could build almost an entirely new laptop from those replacement parts and instructions, since just about everything is available (I think only the bottom case portion of the laptop is not easily available).
Duh? There are plenty of things desktops are much better at than laptops. Unfortunately for desktop users, laptops have been getting better at many things, to the point where Average Joe User may as well buy a laptop instead of a desktop since the prices are relatively comparable, the performance is more than enough for browsing, email, video, word processing, and light gamin
Re:Quite doubtful (Score:3, Informative)
2) How many people (other than geeks like us) upgrade their computers, beyond memory and maybe harddrives. As the other reply said, most laptops can easily have their memory upgrade, and HDDs can sometimes be upgraded easily, too.
3) See #2. Vendor lock-in isn't important, so most people aren't going to upgrade anything beyond memory.
4) See #1. Yes, you sacrifice performance going to a laptop. Does this matter to many people?
5) This one area where you have an arguement I agree with. You will never get a large display on a laptop like you can with a desktop. Unlike other performance issues, this is one area where your average person really cares. Whether this is enough to make desktops continue to be popular remains to be seen. I think it might be.
5 part duex) HDD space has gotten pretty large compared to most people's needs, unless the person is doing a lot with video. My workhorse at home has 90 GB, and unless I'm storing a lot of videos, space isn't an issue. External harddrives are cheap enough, for those who need extra storage.
6) Defects. To the average person computers are (almost) disposable. A laptop, if taken care of, will usually last until it's obsolete - except for the batteries which can easily be replaced.
In summary, computers have gotten to the point that performance isn't an issue. Back when you were hurting if your computer wasn't state-of-the-art within the last 2 years, you really wanted to future proof your box as much as possible. This meant buying a fast computer, and having the ability to upgrade. Now, the pace has slowed down. Vista may throw things off, but any computer bought in the last 5 years will run most applications under XP (except games) just fine. So, the vast majority of people don't need a whiz-bang computer. For them, the convenience of a laptop is worthwhile investment, instead of buying a faster computer.
You are right, though. There will always be a market for desktops. Video, gamers, people who want a big screen are still going to be around. But, it might be that the market flips from 80% desktop/20% laptop like it was in the 90's to 80% laptop/20% desktop. (I just made those numbers up, but you get the idea). I think the large display is the one thing that may continue to keep desktops popular, but we'll see.
Re:You can have my desktop (Score:3, Informative)
That's where Apple's single, large hinge proves useful. Much, much harder to wear out or break (although my ever-clever gf managed to break one by repeatedly picking a MacBook up by its screen). Through three PowerBooks and a MacBook Pro, used every day for hours, I've never managed to break or weaken a hinge.
The flip side is that with its unique hinge Apple can't put any ports on the back of the laptop, making a sensible docking station a near-impossibility.
Why would desktops disappear?? (Score:5, Informative)
There are many cool and exciting new uses for laptops/PDAs/tablets, but desktops have many uses as well. For example, most computer users have a desk at home or work where they get a lot of work done: there's no need to have that computer be mobile, and desktops are CHEAPER and MORE UPGRADABLE and MORE RELIABLE.
Upgradibility in particular is a huge issue for power users and hardware enthusiasts:
By contrast, with my laptop, it takes maybe 5 minutes to replace the hard drive, and I have to mess with a bunch of fiddly little screws. To replace the RAM or optical drive I have to remove several panels and it probably takes 10-15 minutes. Replacing a MiniPCI wifi card is a huge pain and probably takes at least half an hour. And everything else simply can't be upgraded.
other concerns (Score:3, Informative)
Re:You can have my desktop (Score:3, Informative)
Re:You can have my desktop (Score:2, Informative)