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What Will Happen in IT in 2007? 318

Posted by Zonk
from the exciting-times dept.
An anonymous reader writes "ZDNet's Paul Murphy has set out his IT predictions for 2007. Featured among the completely predictable, OpenSolaris overtaking Linux is apparently inevitable within one year. From the article: 'By the end of the year the OpenSolaris community will be widely recognized as larger and more active than the Linux community.' Is 2007 the year of the OpenSolaris desktop? Other 'inevitables' include Microsoft's success with Vista, the continuing phase-out of Itanium, and the Cell processor powering most of the world's super-computers."
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What Will Happen in IT in 2007?

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  • by chriso11 (254041) on Saturday December 30, 2006 @10:52PM (#17413466) Journal
    every competing OS developer community except Microsoft's will have copied the key ideas including its organisational structure

    Does that mean that he wants Linus to get hit by a bus? Cause that's what I'm reading!
  • by Anonymous Coward on Saturday December 30, 2006 @10:57PM (#17413502)
    2. ???
    3. Profit!
  • by strider44 (650833) on Saturday December 30, 2006 @10:59PM (#17413508)
    Ex MacOSX guys won't fuel Vista - Dell, HP, et al will. People won't even know that there's any alternative, that's why Microsoft will be making their billions. Bullshit that OpenSolaris will overtake Linux anytime soon, let alone within the next year. The open source zealots will never go for it, and a lot of people have too much invested in Linux. And how will the Cell processor totally dominate the next top computing list when it's not even worth a mention in the current top computing list?

    He then goes on to reiterate much of what's been said every year but never come true, that is the parts that actually made sense. I'm surprised that he didn't say "2007 is the year for the Open Solaris desktop".

    What a waste of time.
  • by rampant mac (561036) on Saturday December 30, 2006 @11:03PM (#17413526)
    "'By the end of the year the OpenSolaris community will be widely recognized as larger and more active than the Linux community.' Is 2007 the year of the OpenSolaris desktop?"

    I could replace the word OpenSolaris with Linux. Or Mac OS X. Or BeOS. Or Amiga.

    Face it, Windows is the defacto standard and will be for many, many years. Until businesses change (from running Windows) every other operating system ever created will be second fiddle to the Microsoft monopoly. You know what? Who cares? Do you think Porsche executives stay up late at night thinking "Jesus Christ, Ford has really got us by the balls. How the fuck are we going to compete againt the new Escort?"

    I don't care about Microsoft and what they're doing. If it wasn't for their stranglehold on the computing industry, they'd be 10 years behind the technological curve. Natch. They ARE 10 years behind the curve. They just (currently) have the money right NOW to stay relevant.

    It'll change. Maybe not now, but soon.
    • It's not that MS has the money to stay relevant. They have the market share to stay relevant. That may change in the future. The question is...how far in the future.
      • by supabeast! (84658) on Sunday December 31, 2006 @12:53AM (#17414102)

        It's not that MS has the money to stay relevant. They have the market share to stay relevant. That may change in the future. The question is...how far in the future.
        What Microsoft has are products that are relevant to the masses. Mac OS is not relevant to the masses because not everyone wants, can afford, or is willing to pay for, an Apple desktop. Solaris is not relevant to the masses because it's not pretty and a bother for a non-sysadmin to configure and maintain. Linux is not relevant to the masses because F/OSS designers are nerds creating software that's relevant to them.

        Microsoft gets away with being mediocre because they target the hordes of similarly mediocre individuals who make up the human population. If an above-average competitor comes along at this point and targets those same masses, upsetting Microsoft will be easy; but right now I see no evidence that such an event is likely. Google is too nerdy to do it, IBM doesn't care about desktops anymore, it could only happen at Apple with Jobs gone and with Jobs gone Apple would crumble, and Sun is just too much of a mess.
    • by toadlife (301863)

      They ARE 10 years behind the curve.
      Can you elaborate on this please? How exactly is Microsoft "ten years behind the curve"?
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by beoba (867477)
      If Ford was able to arbitrarily patent the combustion engine, or force gas stations to only provide fuel that worked with Fords, then Porsche would care.
    • by 4D6963 (933028)

      "'By the end of the year the OpenSolaris community will be widely recognized as larger and more active than the Linux community.' Is 2007 the year of the OpenSolaris desktop?"

      I could replace the word OpenSolaris with Linux.

      You mean "By the end of the year the Linux community will be widely recognized as larger and more active than the Linux community."? ;-)

    • by kripkenstein (913150) on Sunday December 31, 2006 @04:07AM (#17414796) Homepage
      "By the end of the year the OpenSolaris community will be widely recognized as larger and more active than the Linux community."

      This statement from TFA completely misses the point, but not only in the way you explain. Thing is, OpenSolaris is a kernel, just like Linux; it isn't an entire OS. The 'Linux community' is only in a small part the 'Linux kernel community'; most projects in the FOSS world are kernel-agnostic. You can run GNOME on a Linux, BSD or OpenSolaris kernel, for example. So even if OpenSolaris does become a more popular kernel than Linux, very little will change in the FOSS world. Microsoft would have a hell of a time replacing their kernel; a 'Linux distro' can fairly easily do so (for example, Nexenta is Ubuntu running on OpenSolaris).

      However, even after focusing only on the kernel, I seriously doubt OpenSolaris will overtake Linux anytime soon. There is quite a lot of (code) investment in Linux, e.g. drivers, which would need to be ported (and licensing issues sorted out, but perhaps Sun will GPL OpenSolaris as rumors claim). Equally importantly, distros are used to using Linux. While OpenSolaris has some advantages, I can't see how any of them is reason enough to switch over. Still, choice is always good, perhaps both kernels have a place.
  • Cell processor powering most of the world's super-computers

    #11: The PS3 will remain in very short supply, and not come down in price anytime soon.

    • by DrDitto (962751)
      #12: Designers of Supercomputers will realize that the Cell is 10x slower when doing double-precision arithmatic (used by most scientific codes).
  • Everyone knows that there won't be any IT by the end of 2007, between Global Warming, Nuclear Winter, and the end of culture in America.
  • By the end of the year the OpenSolaris community will be widely recognised as larger and more active than the Linux community -and every competing OS developer community except Microsoft's will have copied the key ideas including its organisational structure

    Yeah, because Sun's "organizational structures" for open source projects have been such huge successes, right?

    the core provisions in the community development license

    Oh, Sun loves software licenses that lets big companies like them take advantage of open
    • Re:dream on (Score:5, Insightful)

      by cpuh0g (839926) on Saturday December 30, 2006 @11:23PM (#17413654)
      and Solaris specific technologies including ZFS and Dtrace. Linux already has tracing technologies and it has multiple excellent file systems, as well as a roadmap for ext4. Maybe ZFS and DTrace will have some small influence on their evolution, but for the most part, Linux will go its own way there. My prediction: OpenSolaris is going to be a dud.

      Get real - Linux tracing capabilities are like primitive caveman tools compared to DTrace. Just because something wasn't developed by the "Linux community" (whatever the hell that means) doesn't mean it is worthless. ZFS is a major evolutionary step forward for file systems. Again, just because it wasn't born and raised as a sourceforge project doesn't mean it must be crap. Take off the blinders, zealot. Great technology knows no religion, it can come from anywhere. Microsoft, Sun, Oracle, et al, are not staffed by idiots (well, at least not in the engineering ranks). Just because they work for "the man" doesn't make their contributions to the field of software any less relevant or useful. Judge the tools by their merits, ignore the religion.

      Whether or not OpenSolaris "takes over" in 2007 remains to be seen, but to dismiss the contributions of Sun's engineers (or Microsoft's for that matter) is to ignore history and to ignore some truly innovative contributions to the field.

    • by Anonymous Coward
      Linux has no good filesystems. You are stuck trying to pick which pig has the nicest lipstick on. And the two nicest made up pigs are both from corporations giving up their unixes and opening their filesystems up. If not for IBM and SGI, linux still would have no usable filesystems at all.

      And linux has nothing that in any way comes anywhere even close to dtrace. I know its pretty standard for gnubies to not know anything besides linux, and speak of linux's greatness out of ignorance, but go read up on d
    • by swordgeek (112599)
      Tell me, can you sit down when you talk out of your ass?

      "Yeah, because Sun's "organizational structures" for open source projects have been such huge successes, right?"

      Yep. Ever hear of NFS? NIS?
      More to the point, take a look at the OpenSolaris community and tell me what's wrong with the organisational structure. It's very similar to the standard open-source structure, except that it addresses some of the problems that have cropped up in that model (fragmentation, dead projects).

      I'm not even going to addres
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by oohshiny (998054)
        Yep. Ever hear of NFS? NIS?

        In what way were Sun NFS and NIS big open source successes? I mean, apart from the fact that NFS and NIS absolutely suck as technologies, Sun released their source long after other people had created their own, independent implementations.

        Complete system probes are something completely new in the world of computing,

        Yes, and that statement in itself makes them suspect. The UNIX philosophy has always been to provide minimal "good enough" solutions for clearly defined needs, not co
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by misleb (129952)

      Linux already has tracing technologies and it has multiple excellent file systems, as well as a roadmap for ext4. Maybe ZFS and DTrace will have some small influence on their evolution, but for the most part, Linux will go its own way there.

      What Linux already has is mindshare. It is a "good enough" Microsoft alternative that works now. Sure, DTrace is good. Great, even. But most people wouldn't know how to take advantage of it. Most people putting together a mail server or web server simply don't need it. A

  • What to say? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by symbolset (646467) on Saturday December 30, 2006 @11:13PM (#17413586) Journal

    Somebody find this guy a cluestick and beat him with it.

    1. Microsoft will make billions on vista. duh.
    2. Itanic is still dead. Wow. What a revelation.
    3. Cell takes over HPC. Not gonna happen. See GPGPU for why.
    4. Slowaris wins out over linux. Literally when pigs fly.

    How many trite phrases can you fit in one blog post? "structural convergence" "Web 2" "SOA" "Googlemania" "YouTube"

    OK, Here's my set of predictions.

    1. Lots of folks will make money -- in old realiable and new creative ways. Some of them will go to jail for it eventually. Most will not.
    2. Transcoding video is the killer app for multicore and beyond. The studios aren't coming to market fast enough to deliver the universally playable content that users want, and users are ready to pay thousands for a pc that converts the media they already have.
    3. Linux and OSX will continue to take share from the Borg, slowly. More slowly than they should.
    4. Vista will be revealed to be as buggy and spyware prone as every other MS OS, for the same reason -- it's developed by the same braindamaged marketdroids who brought us all the others. Microsoft is lucky most of us have no other choice.
    5. A great many flackalysts will comment on the invincibility of Vista, Microsoft, IBM, Sun and every other major vendor, and their paid commentary is worth exactly what the company's glossy fliers are -- not even useful as toilet paper.
    6. The winner in the Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD wars will be... Monitor makers. Your powerpoint never looked so lovely as it does in 1080p.

    Don't like my list? You do better.

    • You have set the measure for the cluestick. Follow the money! That's where things will go.
    • by jg21 (677801) *
      >>Don't like my list? You do better.

      There are pretty good lists here [javadevelo...ournal.com], too...including Bill Dudney's:

      AJAX will continue to gain momentum as folks continue to have the epiphany that Web 1.0 UI is not good for users.

      Overuse of the technology will be a real problem.

      JSF will finally start to become a de facto as well as actual standard due to its ease of integration with AJAX.

      Java Persistence API will bring relational object mapping to the long tail of the market.

      • Your link wins the award for most annoying popover add _ever_.

        I can't believe I clicked it.

        AJAX rocks. It won't cure cancer, though.

        Java probably will take off some in noughtseven.

    • by whoever57 (658626)
      # Slowaris wins out over linux. Literally when pigs fly.
      Paul Murphy is a well known anti-Linux troll, as evidenced by his blog. [zdnet.com] For more examples, use google [google.com]
    • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

      by David Greene (463)

      Cell takes over HPC. Not gonna happen. See GPGPU for why.

      You're both wrong. Or more precisely, you're both wrong in the wider scope of "HPC." HPC is much more than machoflops. Cell may indeed dominate the Top 500 in 2007, but that's a useless list for people doing serious supercomputing work. It's one datapoint on a very complex computational surface.

      Cell and GPGPU will remain niche technologies for one very simple reason: they're insanely difficult to program. HPC users are less and less willing

      • Or maybe they're not.

        We'll know when Intel has got it when they realize the infinite possible permutations of special purpose cores on one chip means a great deal of marketing advantage.

        Of course that solution includes a great deal more compiler complexity than even massively parallel GPGPUs. It is unfortunate that HPC is going to have this shakeout in programmers who know what they're doing, vs template geeks. Unfortunate for the template geeks, that is. Real programmers code with the tools at hand an

      • Hey, (Score:3, Informative)

        by symbolset (646467)
        Ok, this post is going to be off topic. It's ok. I can afford the karma.

        You know stuff about HPC. That's cool.

        I've been reading some of your older posts. You seem like a smart guy. Even about non-tech stuff like http://www.mosesmi.org/ [mosesmi.org] (who could use a new webmaster, btw).

        I still disagree with you about GPGPU and HPC. For HPC interconnect is king and you can't get any better than being on the same die. Yes, compiler complexity bites, and it will get worse before it gets better. Naturally the idea

    • Re:What to say? (Score:5, Interesting)

      by sane? (179855) on Sunday December 31, 2006 @08:59AM (#17415602)

      1. Microsoft will make billions on vista. duh.
      2. Itanic is still dead. Wow. What a revelation.
      3. Cell takes over HPC. Not gonna happen. See GPGPU for why.
      4. Slowaris wins out over linux. Literally when pigs fly.
      The funny thing is you can get a much more realistic set of predictions by inverting many of these.
      1. Microsoft will hit financial/stock trouble as Vista flops, with businesses not buying it and the public not keen on the upgrades/lack of wow.
      2. Itanic get killed, zeroed and deleted from the Intel history books
      3. Cell is on life support by the end of the year, off the back of poor PS3 sales, poor yields, and nobody wanting to fight to program the damn thing.
      4. Linux comes of age as the disto crowd final package a version sensibly. Sun is on life support off the back of poor business decisions.
      Slightly more bravely:
      1. Energy efficent always-on home machines take off, doing multiple jobs in convienent form factors (eg firewall/router/voip/server/backup/IPTV).
      2. Broadband IPTV begins to supplant regional broadcast TV. Media moguls go ape and start threatening people
      3. The PDA comes back, but in a massively different form
      4. Light based processing raises its head seriously
  • by Oddster (628633) on Saturday December 30, 2006 @11:19PM (#17413626)
    An anonymous reader writes
    ZDNet's Paul Murphy


    Anybody else have the feeling that the submitter is actually Paul Murphy?

    Seems like Zonk has broken into the New Years champagne a bit early, and the standard for front-page stories went from infinitesimal to nil.
  • Tried OpenSolaris... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Junta (36770) on Saturday December 30, 2006 @11:28PM (#17413680)
    Specifically Nevada build 54 and Nexenta alpha 5. They have some interesting technologies (specificaly ZFS, which is interesting, and Zones, which is a bit lower overhead than virtualization, but not as flexible (everything still goes through the Solaris kernel)). Nexenta I honestly thought was a cool concept, and executed quite well, Debian package management and GNU software that is clearly better than some of the Sun basic utilities (and much less Java inclined...), offering the benefits that Solaris does have to offer...

    Anyway, from my working with it, I know the OpenSolaris is certainly full of themselves, and some denial, but I don't think they can live up to their own expectations. For example, any complaint or bug frequently got met with 'at least you aren't running linux!'. They trashed on lack of documentation in linux while I struggled to find some documentation on their stuff that seemed unwritten. They'd pick up a decade-old howto and say 'this is how linux requires you do it, versus our not-yet released way, see how crappy linux is'. When people talked about how woefully (understandably) incomplete their ACPI and suspend support was, they pointed at linux and said 'linux acpi support hardly works at all, so don't expect too much' despite the reality of 3 out of 3 generic motherboards I've tried worked splendidly with linux acpi. My laptop despite being one of their officially tested still doesn't have clock modulation and their acpi parser barfs on the DSDT that nothing else (not even intel's compiler) even warns on. People discussing panics/hangs are met with 'at least it doesn't crash as much as linux', despite evidence to the contrary. They are used to a closed, proprietary world of a select set of hardware and the open world if they make any headway in is going to give them quite the wake up call. They talk about how much better their driver support is, despite the glaring lack of drivers. Largely their efforts in expanding that involve porting drivers from the BSD projects.

    Anyway, their current implementation does admittedly seem adequate for most server type activities if the hardware is supported. I could see a lot of hardware vendors happy about a system with a stable binary interface for drivers that doesn't require rebuilds for every uname -r, but hardware vendors face the market realities and put up with the pain if they want to play in the server space. I understand the hassle, but linux making a PITA for hardware vendors have given us a lot more driver source than we could have hoped for. For the market, probably the single best card they have is ZFS. They have done a good job of consolidating volume management, software raid, filesystem, stuff like snapshots, and paranoia of checksumming everywhere into a single implementation. In doing so they have done things more efficiently (such as RAID format on disk leveraging filesystem layer knowledge for better performance), and trustworthy (a controller failing to report data corruption is detected at a higher level). ZFS is impressive, and that was/is the one thing that makes me really want the rest of the platform to be usable for me day to day.

    DTrace is much hyped, and very useful in the hands of good developers and good administrators, but I don't see administrators at large making use of it enough to deliver on the hopes Sun sets up for it.

    Zoning is a nice logical extension from simple chrooting which is more comprehensive, and more efficient than the other extreme of virtualization, theoretically. However, with virtualization being ubiquitous and most of the market accepting the ever-reducing overhead for the flexibility, I don't know if Zones are going to excite anyone that much. The BrandZ extension of the metaphor gives it some flexibility, but again their Linux profile still doesn't run linux things just right, and a linux vm with the linux kernel already will do so today.

    So you have a platform that probably won't need to be as successful as linux had to be in order for hardware ve
    • by swordgeek (112599) on Sunday December 31, 2006 @01:03AM (#17414172) Journal
      OK, I'm a hardcore, fulltime, Solaris admin. I've been heavily involved in rolling out Solaris 10 to the production systems at a major oil corporation. In other words, I'm a bit biased. :-)

      Be that as it may, let me make a few comments.

      1) Nevada is development code, not release. If there aren't bugs in your dev. code, then you're either the finest programmer since about 1960, or you're not doing anything.
      2) OpenSolaris in general is not the place to go for release code; It's the community work, warts and all. If you want a production OS, you use Solaris10.
      3) Having said that, let me also add that Solaris10 is documented. Heavily. Coherently. Completely. HPUX and AIX are close, Linux isn't even an also-ran in the documentation realm.

      So let me talk about some of the good and bad we're seeing with Solaris10 in the real world.

      Let me start by stating that dtrace rocks. Most admins don't write scripts in it, as you suspect--however, they do download them from programmers who give back to the community. Similarly, zones rock too--companies are using them to compartmentalise their environments (for example: one database instance per zone), which makes migration between machines a trivial process. BrandZ is an interesting offshoot, but is likely to be less important for users than for developers.

      Hardware support (specifically non-Sun, x86/x64) hardware support is amazing. Really, Solaris will work on anything!!!

      And if you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you.

      OK, let's come clean. Hardware support is rapidly um... sucking less. It's still nowhere close to the Linux ballpark, and probably won't be for at least three years. That's not surprising from a company that continually tried to kill off their X86 offering for several years, before rather suddenly committing to it. Let me come back to this in a moment.

      I'll readily admit that the anti-Linux sentiment is very strong in the (Open)Solaris world, but you should understand where some of the frustration comes from. Daily (hourly!), the various newsgroups and discussion forums receive posts that come across as, "I can do THIS in Linux, but I can't in Solaris. Why does Solaris suck so badly?!" The answer is usually that Linux has some nonstandard (and more than occasionally undocumented) extensions to standard Unix tools. In other words, this 'thing' will not work in Irix, AIX, HP-UX, *BSD, OSF/1, OS X, or any other Unix variant--only in Linux. Furthermore, if that behaviour is really necessary (it rarely is), then the tool is probably available as a source or binary download to anyone interested.

      I can't comment on ACPI, other than to state that I have never used a computer for any length of time, running any OS, that did power management properly. That includes Linux (RHEL3 and older), Windows (XP and earlier), or Solaris (10, etc.)

      Don't get me wrong here--Solaris on commodity hardware still has a ways to go. However, Solaris on Sun hardware (either SPARC or X64) is the best thing going in computing right now. For those two reasons, OpenSolaris really does have the potential to take the world by storm next year. The community has been presented with both a challenge (make this a true commodity-hardware OS), and a clear goal (behaving like Solaris10 on Sun gear). Furthermore, since Sun is feeding contributions back from OpenSolaris into Solaris, the 'official' OS will continue to get better.

      In other words, the OpenSolaris community will thrive because there's an intriguing challenge facing them, and a clear reward as a result.
      • by udippel (562132)
        Oh well, thanks !
        The only contributor until now who might have actually *seen* OpenSolaris. Compared to all those fanboys of whatever, who might be right, but don't know what the're talking about w.r.t OpenSolaris.

        OpenSolaris can be open Solaris, but it could as well be Linux with a different kernel: SunOS.
        Sorry, RMS, GNU/Linux without Linux; that would be GNU/SunOS. No, not yet GNU/Hurd; not in 2007. That's my prognosis, by the way ;).
        No need to sneeze at that kernel, running your favourite Gnome/KDE/wm/XF
        • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

          by Junta (36770)
          Hey, I have seen and played with OpenSolaris, so that makes at least two, just I'm less enthusiastic than he is... Though my short run with the distributions may not be long enough to fairly evaluate the community, but it doesn't stop me from trying...

          That vision of Solaris kernel coupled with GNU userland, Xorg, traditional stuff found in a linux desktop is largely achieved by Nexenta. If you want a taste, I'd try Nexenta's offering, it really is interesting and left me with a much better taste in my mout
      • by Junta (36770)
        Fair enough about the development code, but was playing with it largely because the support for hardware isn't close in Sol10U3 for my evaluation hardware, so I pretty much had to do Nevada. I won't complain too loudly about instability with Nevada and derivatives stability, but it was the option I could exercise, and it seemed stable, just lacking low level support to do nice things in a desktop context. Nevada build 54 was honestly much much similar to the Solaris I remember, which isn't that exciting (
    • by dangitman (862676)

      Nexenta alpha 5

      Fun facts: "Nexenta alpha" is an anagram of:

      A Teen Phalanx
      Elephant Xaan

  • Ummmm yeah.... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Lumpy (12016) on Saturday December 30, 2006 @11:39PM (#17413712) Homepage
    As a solaris guy from way back I say.... not!

    Solaris is great, but if you want a FREE unix BSD is your ticket. Hell I even run it on some older Sparc 5 boxes in the basement... Faster and easier than solaris because of it being 100% open.

    As for everything else.... nope... IT in 2007 will look 100% like IT in 2006. XP on the desktop in every competent Corperation, not much changes anywhere else.

    Change = expense.
  • So Vista will make billions? Really? With all of their OEM arrangements, this is a foregone conclusion. How is this a "prediction?"

    As for OpenSolaris and Linux? Uh... OK.
    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by pete6677 (681676)
      Vista will make billions. XP would continue to make billions if Vista were never created. Considering how little new features Vista introduces, its development has been a complete waste. Nobody will shell out the money to "upgrade" to it. They'll only spend money that would otherwise have been spent on XP. I don't know the business term to describe this, but if a new product only cannibalizes sales of an existing product and doesn't bring in new sales, whatever money was spent developing it was completely w
  • by Nova Express (100383) <lawrenceperson.gmail@com> on Sunday December 31, 2006 @12:34AM (#17414004) Homepage Journal
    1. Apple will release several cool new products.
    2. A Windows security hole will be discovered.
    3. Internet use will increase.
    4. Zune will not overtake the iPod.
    5. The prices of hard drives and DRAM will continue to fall.
    6. The circulation of print newspapers will continue to decline.
    7. Interest groups will raise a stink over violence in video games.
    8. A major technology company will introduce a new form of DRM...which will fail miserably.
    9. The next version of Mac OS X will be visually and technically superior to Windows Vista.
    10. Duke Nukem Forever will not be released.

    I know I'm going out on a limb here, but trust me. I'm a science fiction writer. I can see the future!

  • by alcohollins (64804) on Sunday December 31, 2006 @12:41AM (#17414042)
    Two of Paul's more interesting predictions were placed on Who's Wrong [whoswrong.com].

    Interesting site for viewing predictions from folks.

  • by KZigurs (638781) on Sunday December 31, 2006 @12:42AM (#17414048)
    Crackpot.

    1) Billions off vista? Yeah, right. Public beta is expected to start at the end of January, turnaround to the market isn't THAT fast (remember NT4 SP3? Remember W2000 SP4? Remember Windows XP SP1?)

    2) Itanium?

    3) Except for the fact that SUPERcomputers are not specced, ordered and build overnight, more like 18-24 month timeframe for rollout and then some for full capacity if we are talking about serious ones. Also CELL is not the answer, ask Cray.

    4) Assuming that ___OPEN!!! IT'S OPEN NOW___ Solaris actually manages to get any exposure at all this is absolutely unlikely to happen in an envorement that is supercharged with egos and religious evangelists/fanatics that spend their lives defending their indentation style or plan source control system migration for 18 months ahead.

    Of course we could be had - last three paragraphs hives off a hint that this could be a very ultrasubtle attempt at humor. In a failed way of sense.

    In short - most stupid article seen on /. within last month. I just felt obliged to comment.
  • Another list... (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Viceroy Potatohead (954845) on Sunday December 31, 2006 @12:48AM (#17414082) Homepage
    Ugh. A couple of other predictions for 2007:

    1. Entertainment writers will spend the last week of 2007 wracking their brains for meaningless, top-ten-list, fluff pieces in order to receive their next paychecks.

    2. The apparent MS astroturfing campaign will continue on /. unabated.

    3. Apologists for the upcoming Vista horrorshow will continue to denounce MS critics as zealots.

    4. A new branch of mathematics (VERIZONMATH) will dominate industry calculations, leading to much hijinx, and ultimately, total economic collapse.

    5. Richard Stallman will learn to levitate, leading to much hijinx, and ultimately, total economic collapse.

  • Huh? (Score:3, Interesting)

    by ScrewMaster (602015) on Sunday December 31, 2006 @12:58AM (#17414134)
    By the end of the year the OpenSolaris community will be widely recognized as larger and more active than the Linux community.

    To quote Lewis Black: "where can one find a drug that would make one so delusional." The Linux community, I'm sorry to inform him, is much larger and more active than he apparently understands. That's because it encompasses tens of thousands of products and technologies well beyond the server and desktop markets, which aren't even the biggest market so far as Linux usage is concerned.
  • Sun? (Score:3, Informative)

    by Animats (122034) on Sunday December 31, 2006 @01:06AM (#17414182) Homepage

    Sun is going to have an impact on anything? Huh? Sun is imploding. Anybody want to buy their Fremont campus? It's empty.

    What else is he expecting, a comeback of SGI?

  • Move along (Score:5, Insightful)

    by tacocat (527354) <tallison1NO@SPAMtwmi.rr.com> on Sunday December 31, 2006 @01:19AM (#17414216)

    This ZDNet guy is an idiot in search of an audience. Move along, there's nothing to see here other than some pathetic dude trying to keep his ad-clicks up.

    I didn't have to read more than OpenSolaris. Overtaking Linux? Yeah right. Even if it does happen it sure has heck won't be in 12 months time.

  • Paul Murphy (Score:3, Interesting)

    by SQLz (564901) on Sunday December 31, 2006 @01:36AM (#17414298) Homepage Journal
    ZDNet's Paul Murphy has set out his IT predictions for 2007. Featured among the completely predictable, OpenSolaris overtaking Linux is apparently inevitable within one year.

    Paul Murphy has no idea what is is talking about.

  • Pleeease! (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Shadyman (939863)
    /MOD article +1 Flamebait
  • All of these next year IT prevision lists make me wonder, if we magically went back to one year ago and tried making a list of IT predictions for 2006, what would be in this list? Because I've been thinking about it and although I must have went through 80% at least of all Slashdot summaries in 2006 I can't think of anything but the Gootube merge and the Reiser story (but that one can't be put in a prediction list since it was obviously unpredictable)

    Anyone?

  • Solaris vs Linux? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by SanityInAnarchy (655584) <ninja@slaphack.com> on Sunday December 31, 2006 @03:38AM (#17414716) Journal
    Could happen, if Solaris was already massively better than Linux. I don't think that will happen.

    The simple reason is: Worse is better [wikipedia.org].

    Why do you think absolutely everyone on Linux was using Mozilla? It was the main Gecko program, and your other options kind of sucked. Mozilla got the job done, and everyone was developing for it -- you were guaranteed to have new and interesting stuff (Flash, Java, RSS, tabbed browsing, etc) on Mozilla, either before it was anywhere else, or within a month of it being implemented elsewhere.

    Of course, some things never made it into Mozilla -- for instance, Amaya is both a web browser and a WYSIWYG editor, and you can jump into any webpage and edit, and save the new version somewhere -- there may even be a mechanism for re-uploading it. But there must not be that much demand for such features -- after all, most of us either use Notepad (or vim), or we use some nicely-done AJAX WYSIWYG.

    You could point to Firefox, but remember: Firefox was originally named "Pheonix", because it rose from the ashes of Mozilla. Had Firefox been written from scratch, it would never have gotten where it is today -- old Mozilla bugs and all.

    That is what will happen with Linux and OpenSolaris.

    Linux is already much, much more popular than BSD or OpenSolaris -- or, for that matter, Plan 9. So, we take the best ideas from other OSes, so long as we can reasonably implement them, and we also toy with new things of our own. If I remember right, /proc was ripped off wholesale from Plan 9. If ZFS is ultimately such a great idea, most of its advantages will be absorbed into Linux, so eventually you'll have OpenSolaris, which implements ZFS perfectly and may have slightly better-looking code, and Linux, which does almost everything you need from ZFS, but also has binary blobs from nVidia and ATI, can run in usermode, has suspend to disk, runs on an iPod, and does many other things that Solaris will still be catching up with.

    The only way this picture changes is if Solaris is so ridiculously better than Linux that the few people hacking on it now are enough for it to surpass Linux -- keep in mind, there will be plenty more people hacking on Linux at the same time. This has happened in the past, on a smaller scale, but I just don't think Solaris is better enough -- remember, evangelizing won't work. You won't get me to hack on Solaris till it runs on my Powerbook, at least -- and you need people like me to make it run on that Powerbook. You need it to already be almost as good as Linux, if not significantly better -- and not just in a few areas I don't care about -- in order to get me to hack on it.

    If you really want to replace Linux, come up with something that's both better enough that it takes half the time to write it in FooOS than in Linux, and can run a Linux kernel alongside it (do something tricky with UML, or something like what Apple did with Mach/Darwin), so that I can load up my nVidia driver and play Quake 4, and still hack around with something cool like, say, a new cluster filesystem. You have to do it right, though -- I should be able to load my Linux kernel, nVidia driver, and Quake4 binary (and maps) from my own FooOS cluster filesystem.

    If you can do that, and provide compelling enough development tools to sway the Linux kernel devs, then we might actually lose the Linux kernel -- slowly -- and replace it with something better. Unless you can do that, Linux will remain the best we've got, now and forever.

You know that feeling when you're leaning back on a stool and it starts to tip over? Well, that's how I feel all the time. -- Steven Wright

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