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Windows Monoculture Myopia Revisited

Posted by ScuttleMonkey on Tue Sep 12, 2006 06:19 AM
from the laughing-all-the-way-to-the-bank dept.
round stic writes "eWeek magazine has an interesting look at the effects of the Windows monoculture on IT budgets, even as everyone agrees on the severity of the inherent security risks. The article contains interviews with Dan Geer and others who warned about the risks of the Windows monopoly three years ago. The article coincides with a piece in the Observer that suggests Vista is the end of the Microsoft monolith because of how complex the operating system has become."

Related Stories

[+] Dan Geer's Monoculture Bomb Goes Off 308 comments
Andy Updegrove writes "Three years ago, celebrated security expert Dan Geer lost his job at @stake when he co-authored a paper on the dangers that the Microsoft 'monoculture' represented for end-users. Last fall, he authored a similar warning in a Perspective piece he wrote for CNETNews.com, applauding the action of Massachusetts in adopting OpenDocument Format, thereby reducing its vulnerability to the same type of risk. Four days ago, Dan's prediction came true, when users of Word (but not those that only trade files created in StarOffice, OpenOffice, or other ODF compliant software) began to be infected with the Backdoor.Ginwui virus - a malicious Trojan program that hitches a ride on bogus Word documents. In short, an object lesson that in IT, as in biology, those that exist in diverse gene pools are at a lower risk, both individually and collectively, from those that subsist in a proprietary monoculture."
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  • End of a monopoly (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Jesrad (716567) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @06:25AM (#16087555)
    (Last Journal: Friday October 24 2003, @09:55AM)
    Microsoft's monopoly is fighting against itself: newer versions of Windows are finding themselves to be in the "striving competition" position, trying to steal marketshare from older versions. This phenomenon can only amplify with Microsoft's inability to innovate. This is the end of the monopoly.
  • bah (Score:1, Interesting)

    by tritonman (998572) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @06:25AM (#16087561)
    BS, windows doesn't have a monopoly in the IT environment. I've worked at many places who use unix systems and those tend to be some very expensive machines. Plus, these IT companies should have big IT budgets, they shouldn't have all their stuff running on free operating systems, it's called redistribution of wealth. The big businesses with lots of money use the unix or windows sytems that cost lots of money which creates more jobs for developers to make the operating systems better. Those little startups can use linux all they want. There is no monopoly, it's a bunch of bologna.
    • Re:bah by Anonymous Coward (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @06:29AM
      • Re:bah by Xiph1980 (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:13AM
        • Offtopic by QMO (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @10:39AM
          • Re:Offtopic by kennygraham (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @11:56AM
            • Re:Offtopic by QMO (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @12:30PM
              • Re:Offtopic by rkanodia (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @12:55PM
                • Re:Offtopic by Floody (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @01:51PM
                • Re:Offtopic by QMO (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @02:18PM
              • Re:Offtopic by QMO (Score:2) Wednesday September 13 2006, @08:06AM
                • Re:Offtopic by kennygraham (Score:1) Wednesday September 13 2006, @11:42PM
                  • Re:Offtopic by QMO (Score:2) Thursday September 14 2006, @08:10AM
                  • Re:Offtopic by QMO (Score:2) Thursday September 14 2006, @08:32AM
                  • Re:Offtopic by Descalzo (Score:2) Thursday September 14 2006, @10:57PM
              • 2 replies beneath your current threshold.
        • 1 reply beneath your current threshold.
    • Re:bah by orasio (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:49AM
      • Re:bah by Anonymous Coward (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @09:15AM
    • Re:bah by dc29A (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @09:51AM
      • Re:bah by Anonymous Coward (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @11:39AM
    • Re:bah by betterunixthanunix (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @10:24AM
      • Re:bah by Fred_A (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @12:48PM
    • 2 replies beneath your current threshold.
  • It quite funny!!! (Score:1)

    by Lex-Man82 (994679) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @06:32AM (#16087576)
    While reading a article about microsoft's security problems every time I glanced else where on the page what did I see, why adverts for Microsoft security.
  • TFA perpetuates myth (Score:5, Insightful)

    by McDutchie (151611) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @06:39AM (#16087593)
    (http://www.interlingua.com/)

    From the article:

    How can hackers, scattered across the globe, working for no pay, linked only by the net and shared values, apparently outperform the smartest software company on the planet?

    Why do people keep perpetuating this myth? It should be widely known by now that all the important Linux developers get paid by their respective employers to work on the kernel. That's possibly the most significant sign of widespread acceptance of the open-source development model -- that companies such as IBM would pay their own employees to do work on a public project that is not exclusively to their own benefit.

    In the same sentence, the author managed to confuse "richest" with "smartest" as well. I'm not very impressed with this article.

    • Re:TFA perpetuates myth (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Chaffar (670874) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:02AM (#16087667)
      In the same sentence, the author managed to confuse "richest" with "smartest" as well. I'm not very impressed with this article.
      Well, it WOULD make sense that the world's richest company should be able to afford hiring the smartest people in the field. I mean, it has worked in every other industry, why wouldn't it work in this one?
      Maybe it's because the world's number 1 software company didn't get to where it is today by outperforming its rivals :) (yes I'm flaming get over it)
      [ Parent ]
      • Re:TFA perpetuates myth by Fordiman (Score:3) Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:22AM
      • Re:TFA perpetuates myth (Score:5, Insightful)

        by LaughingCoder (914424) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:49AM (#16087843)
        Maybe it's because the world's number 1 software company didn't get to where it is today by outperforming its rivals

        Talk about perpetuating myths! They did outperform their rivals, by definition. You can't argue that they abused their monopoly powers in order to *become* a monopoly. They outperformed their competitors, achieved market dominance, and THEN achieved their monopoly status. I know it's hard for you to admit, but at one time MS was the scrappy little guy competing against entrenched giants like IBM, HP, DEC, ... and the only way they could survive was to outperform them.
        [ Parent ]
        • Re:TFA perpetuates myth (Score:5, Insightful)

          by rucs_hack (784150) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @08:08AM (#16087937)
          (http://code.google.com/p/nmod/)
          agreed

          If people know anything about the Unix wars then it would become very clear that Unix vendors were fighting amongst each other to 'lock in' customers by deliberatelly making their unix versions incompatible in the eighties. It was a real mess, because if you bought one unix licence, you had to have your apps written for it, and you couldn't move without massive expense.

          This wasn't the unix philosophy, it was the 'make loads of money' philosophy, and it wrecked unix as a serious platform for most businesses at the time (not meaning huge businesses here).

          Meanwhile this tiny little company called microsoft offered a cheap and easy way out of the mess, called DOS. Ok, it was a bit shit, and ripped off CP/M something rotten, but it did what business wanted, and meant they could get away from the ravages of the Unix wars. Plus it was offered by IBM, which sounded very good indeed at the time, and was available on other hardware to if the IBM stuff was too costly.

          I tried DOS back in the day, and it was ok. Not great, but ok. I prefer Linux now, but back then Unix was what the cool guys down at the local powerstation used when I was a kid.

          Nowadays I prefer Linux for coding. I never use normal Unix, except for the odd dabble in BSD to produce ports of software. Until Linix though I never would have considered Unix as a serious platform to develop for. When I encountered it at Uni they still had four different Unix versions, and I had to re-code for each one, which meant I used the Solaris boxes, and nothing else until the first Linux boxes appeared, as duel boots with windows, and I was hooked.

          So yes, there was a time when microsoft were the good guys, just as there was a time when IBM were the bad guys.
          [ Parent ]
          • Re:TFA perpetuates myth (Score:5, Insightful)

            by jafac (1449) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @11:14AM (#16089023)
            (http://slashdot.org/)
            This only really tells half the story. The software/OS half.

            The other half is the Hardware Story.

            SGI, HP, Digital, IBM, AT&T, all the big Unix vendors did have their own OS flavor. (At least shell scripting was mostly portable). But they also had their own hardware, mostly with different CPU architectures. Compiled binaries couldn't run on the different hardware platforms, even if they were written using the same damn libraries. The problem with this was that the hardware was damn expensive, so once you were locked in, they could totally assrape you on hardware.

            Then the IBM PC platform came out, which was enough of a standard, and performed "good enough" on the low end, and was dirt cheap because of the fact that everybody could manufacture them to the same standard, and prices went down-down-down while performance improved. I remember paying $4000 for an IBM PC (an 086) with 16 MB of RAM, back in the 1980's. Monochrome screen. It had a "turbo" button you could press to make it run at 12 MHz instead of 10 MHz - (you could screw up timing in games and animations if you ran it at 12). When you look at the advent of the "sub-$1000" market in the late 1990's, those machines totally outclassed the top end in the 1980's, and they outclassed a lot of these proprietary Unix vendors' desktop machines as well.

            DOS was just the cheap OS you could run on these cheap systems. But the real savings came in the hardware realm. They still do - compare perhaps the LAST hardware-holdout, Sun, to an intel-compatible system. Price-performance wise, it's not even close, in the desktop area.

            One by one, these vendors either dropped out, got bought out, or switched to Intel architecture, to save themselves costs on the back-end. But most of them didn't forget their old "ways", and still charged a hardware premium.

            Eventually, even Apple switched to intel chips; because the specialty CPU vendor just could not keep up, even with "superior" architecture. (whatever happened to "twice as fast"?).

            The inexorable slide towards monoculture, ironically, was because of the overall cross-fertilization and competition in the huge intel-compatible-PC market. Within each Unix-vendor's hardware market, they were a monopoly, a monoculture. Each one lost out because, despite their best efforts to prevent compatability, the customers switched to the intel-compatable platforms.
            While we still have competition on the intel-compatable side (many CPU vendors, many Motherboard vendors, many adapter card vendors, many HD vendors, etc.) - prices will remain competitively low. But the market is consolidating, and has been for about a decade. The best news is that intel is losing the overwhelming dominance it's had for a long time.

            It's ironic, that one of the tools for eliminating hardware dependency, Java, came out of the last hardware-holdout, and it perhaps saved Sun from losing the last slice of marketshare it had. (in addition to their intel offerings). Sun embraced multiculture, and it saved them. I would say, too, that IBM was probably saved by their embracing Linux (another "tool" of hardware cross-compatability, by virtue of it's Open Source foundation).

            Microsoft, however, continues to reject multiculturalism, cross compatability. They really screwed the pooch with Java, and they also fucked themselves by taking a cross-platform OS (NT, ran on x86, MIPS, and PPC, at one time - Proof: xBox 360 uses some of the PPC fork of NT), and their rejection of anything Open Source. And their last gasp of a power-play, .NET, where they pretended to be "open" - but not really, has (in my observation) done nothing more than alienate formerly loyal Developers for the Win23 platform (particularly among the VB-set). This was really Microsoft's strongest asset: the legions of Visual Studio users out there, who coded exclusively for Windows, because Visual Studio was such a far superior IDE (others have been closing the gap lately), and it was so difficult to produce co
            [ Parent ]
            • Re:TFA perpetuates myth (Score:4, Funny)

              by Grishnakh (216268) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @12:44PM (#16089973)
              (http://integramod.tripod.com/)
              And their last gasp of a power-play, .NET, where they pretended to be "open" - but not really, has (in my observation) done nothing more than alienate formerly loyal Developers for the Win23 platform

              I think developers had already left the Win23 platform, as it was quite obscure and really sucked. There weren't very many 23-bit CPUs available, and they could only support 8MB of memory. And what idiot would ever design a CPU with a 23-bit memory bus anyway?
              [ Parent ]
            • Re:TFA perpetuates myth by rucs_hack (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @01:12PM
            • Re:TFA perpetuates myth by evanspw (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @09:26PM
            • 2 replies beneath your current threshold.
        • Re:TFA perpetuates myth by Daengbo (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @08:22AM
        • Re:TFA perpetuates myth by Eevee (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @08:30AM
        • What is competition (Score:4, Interesting)

          by nuggz (69912) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @08:41AM (#16088090)
          (http://slashdot.org/)
          MS outperformed, they got set up as the default and made their software good enough.
          If we look only at PC hardware
          People bought MS DOS, not PC DOS, not Dr DOS

          There were a few windowing environments and task swapping/multitasking
          Deskview (sp?) GEM, OS/2, GEOS
          People still bought MSDOS (Dosshell swapping later and MS windows multitasking)

          They also leveraged their default status, when they went QBasic and the default editor, did anyone notice it was very similar to the QuickBasic and QuickC environments? (I loved QuickC 2.5 at the time)

          123-> Excel
          Wordperfect -> Word

          They simply make a good enough product, and work on the weak points till it's no longer clearly inferior to the competition.
          It's a very effective way to compete.
          [ Parent ]
        • Re:TFA perpetuates myth (Score:5, Insightful)

          by Overly Critical Guy (663429) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @09:09AM (#16088227)
          You can't argue that they abused their monopoly powers in order to *become* a monopoly.


          Sure you can.

          I know it's hard for you to admit, but at one time MS was the scrappy little guy competing against entrenched giants like IBM, HP, DEC, ... and the only way they could survive was to outperform them.


          Yes, they were the little guy. But that all changed when IBM stupidly entered into a contract allowing Microsoft to ship the OS on every IBM PC, while still retaining the software rights. This brought the company massive revenues as PCs became a commodity, allowing them to expand into other markets.

          They did not outperform anyone; they were in the right place and got lucky.
          [ Parent ]
        • Re:TFA perpetuates myth by mrchaotica (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @09:09AM
        • Re:TFA perpetuates myth by Archtech (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @12:52PM
        • Re:TFA perpetuates myth by dodobh (Score:2) Wednesday September 13 2006, @03:07AM
        • Re:TFA perpetuates myth by LaughingCoder (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:24PM
        • 1 reply beneath your current threshold.
      • Re:TFA perpetuates myth (Score:4, Insightful)

        Funny thing is,

        Here at Brasil, the word "smart" doesn't always means "intelligent". For us at Rio de Janeiro, "smart" (esperto in portuguese) is someone that is good at taking advantage over other people, by ignoring the rules or fair-play.

        So, in a way... yes, Microsoft is full of "smart" people. :-)
        [ Parent ]
      • Re:TFA perpetuates myth by neoform (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @09:18AM
    • Re:TFA perpetuates myth by Anonymous Brave Guy (Score:3) Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:31AM
    • Free Software as a simple consequence of economics by thbb (Score:3) Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:34AM
    • Re:TFA perpetuates myth by jZnat (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @10:02AM
    • You've got the Wrong Myth. "Complexity" is BS. by twitter (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @10:58AM
    • Re:TFA perpetuates myth by kula.shinoda (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @06:46PM
  • sabotaging own install base (Score:5, Interesting)

    Let's assume that people buy new OEM PC's that have the newest Microsoft OS on them. If Vista provides new, "incompatible with old version" features, then the Windows install base becomes less self-compatible. If Microsoft fights to keep Vista compatible, there will be no real reason to upgrade. It's a catch-22 of being the monopoly OEM-installed OS.
  • by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 12 2006, @06:39AM (#16087596)
    I know, RTFA is a strange concept on /., but this time around it's really needed.

    Why? Because the article is not about the downfall of MS as the headline seems to suggest, but about the way complex software is build. It suggest that building big, monolithic applications has reached an end as Vista shows that even a huge company like MS can't really write complex software in this way anymore.

    Now agree or disagree with this, but please spare us the "OMG MS will never die" comments.
  • I'm no expert, but... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 12 2006, @06:41AM (#16087599)
    With new virtualization technologies coming through, I think it's about time for Microsoft to scrap backward compatability being built directly into Windows. It just leaves so many holes unplugged. Start Blackcomb with a clean slate, include a Win32 sandbox environment, and be done with it.
  • End of the monopoly... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by tygerstripes (832644) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @06:42AM (#16087602)
    We can but hope.


    Just to play devil's advocate here (so don't bite my head off); while Windows may be complex, its ubiquitous nature does reduce the need for applications to be particularly portable, and for programmers to be particularly knowledgable. That's an arguable benefit, but it maybe the drive for varied OSes has its drawbacks.

    It would obviously be preferable to have a well-written universal OS, but that brings us around to the old saying: The best kind of government would be a benevolent dictator, but how many dictators stay benevolent?

    Windows and M$ may be evil, are certainly a pain in the arse, but are they also just an inevitable consequence of the technological and economic environment we have created? If it weren't M$, would we just be having the same problem with someone else? If the devil didn't exist, would it have been necessary for us to have created him?

    What do others think about this? (Again, I'm only playing devil's advocate - I want to see how others view this situation)

    • Re:End of the monopoly... by RAMMS+EIN (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @06:50AM
    • Re:End of the monopoly... by mbone (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:19AM
    • It would obviously be preferable to have a well-written universal OS, but that brings us around to the old saying: The best kind of government would be a benevolent dictator, but how many dictators stay benevolent?

      It would be vastly better if we have well-written universal API layers. Like Java, C#/.NET/Mono, Qt, GTK, and other beautiful cross-platform toolkits.

      Unfortunately, except for Java and C#, we don't have any toolkits that go "all the way" in being cross platform, with the possible exception of Win32 (WINE), but Wine is reverse engineered, not bottom-up designed, so there are limitations.

      There's no reason for application interfaces to be deeply tied into the OS. Properly engineered, a user-space environment on Linux should be able to run Windows or OS X or whatever applications, and vice versa. The reason we do not have this is not because of engineering limitations, but because of vertical vendor lock in. Lately, this seems to be easing slightly.

      I envision a future where applications come with API requirements, not OS requirements. "Requires GTK 2.42, OpenGL 3.0, and SDL. OpenAL 5 required for 3D audio." Software manufacturers would probably support particular "distributions" on the box ("Runs on OS 12.5, Mandriva 2012, and Windows Super-Next-Hubble-Viewpoint"), but like *current* binary software for Linux you shouldn't have many problems installing on the "wrong" distribution; with minor API-requirement caveats.

      Think Python applications (these are often cross-platform). Think Java. Think C#. As CPUs get faster, we can put up with some of this overhead; and indeed, in some cases there is very little overhead (WINE does Win32 in userspace on Linux really quickly. Imagine if Microsoft gave up the OS business, but just started selling something like Wine. The "Windows" application layer for Linux, OS X, Unix, Solaris, whatever.

      If you want an example of this environment, look at Linux, Solaris' Linux Application Environment, FreeBSD's Linux Application layer, and lxrun, the Linux application layer for (ick) SCO Unix. IIRC, AIX is also Linux compatible.

      I think it can work; and giant commercial developers have no problem operating in this multisegmented space. Sure, there are a few more compatibilty bugs than in the Windows monoculture, but there's a greater diversity of applications and environments (from very small systems to giagantic systems), and if the commercial OS space was more competitive in the Desktop world (multiple vendors of multiple pedigree OSs) we would see these compatibility issues worked out quickly.
      [ Parent ]
    • wxwidgets, SDL by Vexorian (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @08:38AM
    • Re:End of the monopoly... by pravuil (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @08:46AM
    • Re:End of the monopoly... by TheAmazingJambi (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @09:16AM
  • Windows monopoly (Score:4, Insightful)

    by geirhell (988825) <geirarild&gmail,com> on Tuesday September 12 2006, @06:43AM (#16087604)
    On a side-note: Windows monopoly also ensures you can go to inner Mongolia, switch on a local computer and with 90-odd percent chance make sense of whatever pops up on screen. It means everyone has a common UI that is known by many (most?) members of modern civilization. Easily, Windows is, barring the ill effects of monopoly on commercial businesses and security, the greatest single stab at standardizing computer UI so far in computer history. And quite sucessful at that.
    • Just to add to this.... (Score:4, Interesting)

      by AriesGeek (593959) <aries&ariesgeek,com> on Tuesday September 12 2006, @06:53AM (#16087633)
      (http://www.ariesgeek.com/ | Last Journal: Saturday September 01, @01:12AM)
      I can already hear everyone saying, "But Apple came up with the UI idea" or even "But Xerox came up with the UI idea." Be that as it may, it was Microsoft who proliferated it throughout the world and ingrained the idea of the particular UI into our brains. Like it or not, admit it or not, Microsoft has done a bit of good for IT in general.

      With that being said, they have done quite a bit of evil too. But there's so many negative posts about Microsoft, I had to comment on the one positive post that I saw that wasn't just a "microsoft rules you lunix users muhahahaha" troll.

      Ok, Mods, do your job. Mod me down for saying something positive about evil evil bad bad Microsoft.
      [ Parent ]
      • Re:Just to add to this.... by tygerstripes (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:10AM
      • Re:Just to add to this.... (Score:4, Insightful)

        I disagree strongly. Go to another (english) computer and the average computer user will not know what to do. The order and number of items changes and their all whacked out of place running around as a chicken without a head that the computer is broken.

        Yes, we sysadmins can relate to certain icons in any language but it's not as strong as knowing command line scripting and making the computer do stuff through that. A script is in general not made to click on certain well-known places but instead executes some commands that have effect on the computer.

        That is why *nix (Linux, BSD, ...) is so loved among the real sysadmins because it lets them do stuff on all computers no matter what language the GUI is in. A GUI is for simple users and maybe some people that got privileges to change some settings, power users and sysadmins need the command line to get the computer to do stuff fast and reliable especially if you're in a multi-lingual and more important in a multi-charset environment.

        I am a Mac sysadmin for a large company and I can get the computers in Singapore to do the same things I let the local branches do but I have generally no idea what to do when I'm using Remote Desktop.
        [ Parent ]
      • Re:Just to add to this.... by 14CharUsername (Score:3) Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:57AM
    • Re:Windows monopoly by ElleyKitten (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:08AM
    • Re:Windows monopoly by danheretic (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @08:43AM
    • common UI .. by rs232 (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @08:47AM
    • Standard UI by emil10001 (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @10:29AM
    • 2 replies beneath your current threshold.
  • "This is the end of the monopoly."

    Is it remotely possible that Gates and Allchin know this, and that's why they're fading into the sunset?

  • End backward compatibility (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Bob_Villa (926342) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:02AM (#16087668)
    I think that for the next release of Windows, they should just stop trying to support old hardware and software. Just write a small, compact kernel that is secure, and have turn everything else into independent modules that can be easily switched out, similar to Linux and Unix. If you don't like your filesystem, change it. If you don't want IE, take it out and put in Firefox.

    I think the UI is fine and they should keep it fairly consistent. But if they'd just lose having to support things that ran on 95, 98, 2000, ME, ... they would make their lives a lot easier. Plus, without all of the old legacy code in there it would probably be more secure. And maybe for that version we could have WinFS.

    And dump the registry, that was a really stupid idea.

    But I think this could work. Most new copies of the OS are sold on computers built by Dell and other pc makers so they can control what goes in them. Hardware could be certified to work on the new version. Fairly new hardware could get new drivers that could be loaded on and it would work too. But older stuff would just get left behind.

    Anyway, just a thought. On a random note, painting a two story house by yourself sucks!
  • Three years ago? (Score:2, Interesting)

    by pookemon (909195) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:16AM (#16087721)
    (http://www.southurst.id.au/)
    who warned about the risks of the Windows monopoly three years ago

    What took them so long? That was 2003 - it was a "monopoly" (Not really - it never has been and never will be...) long before then.
    • 1 reply beneath your current threshold.
  • But what about INERTIA? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by HawkinsD (267367) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:21AM (#16087739)
    The end of the Microsoft monolith? I don't think so. OK, so Vista is bloaty, and a monoculture is risky. So what? Are the masses of IT directors going to think, "Gee, monoculture is bad, I think I'll replace all my Dell desktops with iMacs"?

    There are approximately one grillion machines running XP and Windows 2000, and doing their jobs more or less successfully (if not securely), and being supported. Many (most?) will not be upgraded to Vista, given the high costs and dubious benefits. So they will stay the same.

    How does this work out to the end of the monolith?

  • by FridayBob (619244) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:24AM (#16087752)
    Forget it! With billions at stake, Microsoft will find a way to extend its monopoly. As opposed to their stockholders, the complexity of their new OS will have little influence in this matter. If necessary, subsequent versions of Vista will only include things like cosmetic changes, new file formats (not compatible with previous versions) and some extra features stolen from the competition. However, you can bet that they will market every new version as the greatest thing since sliced bread.
  • by Siberwulf (921893) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:29AM (#16087766)
    Really, I don't think it will be the end of a monopoly. Why would it? MS has every bit of steam possible in their engine. As a "Seasoned" (5 years or so) .NET developer, we cater to Windows. Therefore, we use windows. Furthermore, we use Office. Our clients use Windows (I guess we don't help things by not offering MAC IE/Safari or Firefox/Opera support, but thats another thread, honestly).

    Another neat note is that MS's XNA framework and GAme Studio Express is just out in beta and quite a few people are liking what they see. Unfortunately, it'll take another beta release to get the Content Pipeline out the door, which means painful conversion of Mesh files, but thats ok for now, as people get to learn the IDE.

    I've always been told that making money has nothing to do with having a decent base product. While that might not be the selling point, the fact that you have good accessories, or at least desirable accessories usually can push the fence-sitters onto your side.

    *NIX will never die. Windows will never die. I don't think it matters how much each side tries, since the appeal (to the GP) of "Widely Used" vs "Better" have always offset.
  • complex operating systems (Score:1, Troll)

    by Exter-C (310390) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:39AM (#16087809)
    In many ways it is in the producer of the operating systems best interest to have the underlying OS as complex as possible. That way they can be sure that they can sell people certifications which companies will feel comfortable in having and then they can ask for more money by becoming a specialist. The flipside of that is the more complex it becomes the easier it is to hide backdoors/trojans etc somewhere inside.
  • From the second article.... (Score:1, Troll)

    by skiman1979 (725635) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:43AM (#16087820)
    In the second linked article: "Security vulnerabilities come free with all versions." Sign me up!
  • Slight nit with the CISO's position (Score:3, Interesting)

    by hey! (33014) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:47AM (#16087838)
    (http://kamthaka.blogspot.com/ | Last Journal: Wednesday March 30 2005, @03:18PM)
    The CISOs' concerns about the cost of non-standardization to an organization miss an important possibility: organizations can choose to standardize on a product or vendor without making the same choices as the majority of people in the world. For example, you can choose to standardize on SUSE Linux, and with much of the world's black hat population focused on Windows, you'd avoid many of the Windows attacks.

    This is much smarter security-wise and economically than trying to support many different operating systems in production systems. For one thing your support costs go way down, especially if you choose the right vendor, because you are buying and deploying in quantity. While you as (for example) a SUSE shop will still get slammed hard when Linux is targetted, the shop that tries to suport Linux and Windows at the same time will get hit with Linux AND Windows vulnerabilities. Furthermore, it's likely that no matter what operating system is vulnerable, some mission critical system some place will be compromised.

    So, a possible strategy is to standardize, but on something that is not a dominant "de facto" industry standard. For larger outfits, you may choose to standardize differently for different divisions and subsidiaries. You still get the scale effects of standardization, and while it does mean you respond to more security problems, you're probably scaled and organized in a way that makes this possible to handle.

    One problem of course is that presumes you have a choice of applications which can meet your needs. One of the arguments some economists (who have magically rediscovered some of the disadvantages of competition) is that software is subject to the "network effect", which amounts to that if there is only one platform to target, then the market for software for that platform is bigger. This means you benefit from the competition in the application space. The downside of course is that you suffer from lack of competition in the OS space, from the OS vendor's attempts to tilt the playing field in the application space, and of course the monoculture effect.

    These days various flavors of Linux are at least as good as Windows by any reasonable standard, when considered as an operating environment for your computer. Linux and BSD fall short availability of suitable applications for these customers, and support for those applications. In some application areas, Unix flavors are a bit ahead of Windows IMHO, but overall the Windows market has the full spectrum of applications better covered than Unix. This barrier is a catch-22; developers will come to a platform when there are adopters, and adopters will come to the platform when there are developers.

    So, a legitimate strategy to avoid the monoculture problem is to use a Unix derivative such as Linux, BSD or MacOS. However the practicality hinges on the differential in application availability being less than your concern for security.

    MacOS is probably the most important player to watch. It may well break the network effect log jam, to the benefit of Linux and BSD as well.

    The one place where movement towards this rosy future can be thwarted is in standards compliance. Consider the number of web servers that run on Unix variants, but whose clients are overwhelmingly Windows desktops. The standardization of HTTP, HTML and these days javascript makes this possible (although failure to support standards inflates costs). Standards for data interchange and communication are a critical enabler of a heterogenous software ecology. Without them you cannot work with suppliers and customers who make different vendor choices than you.

  • The MSFT monoculture and monoply was willingly created by the big name corporations. They all clamoured for IBM-PC compatibility over everything else. The corporations have always known and valued interoperability and compatibility. The myopia was choosing as a standard for interoperability a closed system owned by one company. If they had chosen an OPEN standard, defined by independant third parties that allow free competition things would have been better. But they did not. The result was that while hardware costs have been shrinking by orders of magnitude, the software costs have not. When the industry annointed MSFT as the "King of the Hill" MSWord/WordPerfect QuttroPro/Excel were 50$ products running on 2500$ PCs. Now MSWord and WinXP are 100$ [*1] products running on 300$ PCs.

    But MSFT revenues are 11 billion $ a year, which is chump change compared to money spent by the top 1000 corporations counting everything from travel, rent and raw materials. Down to earth reality is that the compatibility and interoperability (or just the perception of them) between MSFT products is still delivering better value to the companies than switching to Open Standards defined by third parties. MSFT will always price its products just a shade under the switching cost. As years go by and the switching costs keep increasing, it will be able to raise the price. If corporations bite the bullet, pay for the switching costs today, they stand to gain a lot in the future. But since corporations are driven by quarterly numbers, there is not much incentive in taking that kind of risk for long term benefit.

    All this means the MSFT monopoly and monoculture will persist for a long time.

    [*1] The list price of 400$ for MSOffice and 130$ for WinXP is largely fiction. No one pays that much for it in the real world.

  • bullshit (Score:3, Insightful)

    by stinky wizzleteats (552063) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:58AM (#16087894)
    (http://slashdot.org/ | Last Journal: Thursday October 05 2006, @10:36PM)
    That convenience of one platform means less management expense. So far, companies are going with lower costs over susceptibility.

    Alternatives to Windows are free. As in beer. As in licensing costs: $0. License management costs: $0. Time spent calling to re-license the operating system because you installed a sound card: $0. License audit exposure: $0. As in infinity% cheaper than Windows. As in incremental cost per unit = 0. The cost of alternative supporting application and utility software is $0. Alternative database application software is $0. Alternative firewall softare is $0. Alternative antivirus software (if and as applicable) is $0. Word processing software - $0. Systems/network management tools - wait for it - $0. Documentation [gentoo.org],comprehensive howto resources [tldp.org], and technical support [ubuntuforums.org] - all $0.

    Turning away from solutions such as Linux because of cost is like being on fire and turning away from a bucket of water because the water might be too hot. Arguing against alternatives to Windows on the basis of cost is the very height of idiocy and is ultimately disingenuous. The real issue when considering alternatives is the fear of change and organizational inertia. How much of either can your company afford?
    • Re:bullshit by ardor (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @09:05AM
      • Re:bullshit by stinky wizzleteats (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @09:56AM
      • 1 reply beneath your current threshold.
    • Re:bullshit by dm0527 (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @09:10AM
      • Re:bullshit by Tony (Score:3) Tuesday September 12 2006, @10:05AM
      • Re:bullshit by stinky wizzleteats (Score:3) Tuesday September 12 2006, @10:14AM
        • Re:bullshit by dm0527 (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @03:13PM
          • Re:bullshit by stinky wizzleteats (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @11:06PM
    • Re:bullshit by howlingmadhowie (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @10:19AM
      • Re:bullshit by stinky wizzleteats (Score:1) Tuesday September 12 2006, @12:40PM
    • Re:bullshit by edremy (Score:2) Tuesday September 12 2006, @01:51PM
  • by Danathar (267989) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @08:05AM (#16087925)
    (Last Journal: Sunday August 20 2006, @09:16PM)
    Fact of the matter is, nobody (who makes the purchasing recommendation) gets fired for choosing Microsoft if their products fail as a result of a design flaw that causes an application/OS crash or security hole that results in someobody taking control of systems you don't want. You can just say "it's windows...everybody runs it. Not my fault!".

    If you go out on a limb and choose something different then your "risk" of getting the crap beat out of you if you fail is HIGH and the return is LOW.

    Accountability for the people who choose MS products for their organizations will help. If your boss said "if a SINGLE desktop gets infected with a virus or spyware you are fired" would you choose Windows as your desktop/server OS?
  • "monoculture is attractive because it is cheaper." - Bruce Schneier

    "It's not easy to click your fingers and say, 'Windows is a liability; let's just switch.' You soon realize you have to spend even more to get specialized staff for each computing environment," - Andre Gold

    You can have diversity without complexity. All your servers connected through a VPN running on embedded hardware would eliminate most of the risks of a monoculture without having to switch to multiple platforms. Running pure Java applications on top of this and the OS becomes irrevent. It would provide a secure end to end solution. The Internet is protected from bots and trojans and your network is protected from the Internet.
  • interesting. (Score:2)

    by CDPatten (907182) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @09:31AM (#16088332)
    (http://www.pattensoap.com/)
    Why is it that every time MS releases a new OS the moon-bats come out and start claiming it's the end of MS. Each time its "the software is over complicated", "it has backwards compatibility problems", "it's too expensive", "they missed the boat because it took too long", etc. etc. This has been going on since Windows 95.

    I wish the "media" and "news" services would stop projecting their HOPES and WISHES as being real news or valid predictions. There is a big distinction between making an educated guess/prediction, and trying to make a case for wishful thinking.

    I would have hoped that news services would be a little bit above this type of spotty journalism.

    Let me go on the record as saying THIS IS NOT THE END OF WINDOWS AND CERTIANLY NOT THE END OF MS.

    PS
    A real prediction would be it's the beginning of the end of for Apple's OSX.
  • I disagree with this article (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Jugalator (259273) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @09:42AM (#16088403)
    (Last Journal: Monday February 13 2006, @07:11PM)
    The difficulties in developing Vista stemmed from its monolithic structure and the need for 'backwards compatibility', ie ensuring that software used by customers on older versions of Windows will work under Vista. This vast accumulation of legacy applications acts like an anchor on innovation. The Vista trauma has convinced some Microsoft engineers that they will have to adopt a radically different approach.

    I can't really agree with this. The major problems came when Microsoft decided, after about two years in development since the start in ~2002, that they were to change the foundation of "Longhorn" from Windows XP SP2 to Windows Server 2003. This was also by the time Microsoft changed their goals of what their next OS should be. Yes, when it was in the middle of development! Development managers may start feeling dizzy now and consider leaving Microsoft. :-p Needless to say, when you do this in any kind of large project and most definitely the largest operating system in the world, you'll have a big price to pay.

    I wouldn't even want to do it in a personal software project.

    To see the problem, check out this build 5048 review [winsupersite.com] (build 5000 was the kernel switch) with screenshots. It looks almost like "old Windows" again with mostly the same old features after a few years in development? Windows enthusiast Paul Thurrott is screaming blood. What happened to the progress they had made? Well, they had to strip a ton of features to get their stuff working again. Say hello to huge two year delays, feature cuts, and sweating.

    So Vista seems to me to be more about a planning/design mistake than a complex beast that will take around 5 years to get out the door. Vista has actually only had around 2-2.5 years of uninterrupted development on the correct kernel and with the final goal of what it should even do!

    I'd like to object to the article and actually claim I'm impressed by how quickly Microsoft put together something that looks to even end up as stable during that short time with this many features, given the stupidity that went on in planning. Or rather in-development-planning.

    Of course, WinFS and other technologies had to go due to this wild change of focus in mid-development, but that's not surprising or a lack of efficiency due to having think of backwards compatibility, like this article claims.

    But it's at the same time very visible how Microsoft is struggling, and I'm doubting we will see a clean release of this one when it "goes gold".
  • embracement (Score:3, Insightful)

    by sTeF (8952) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @09:55AM (#16088477)
    (Last Journal: Wednesday February 07 2007, @04:47PM)
    i think the article raises an interesting point. virtualization technology.
    if you think about it, this could mean that ms ships as a host operating system and one preinstalled 'guest' operating system.

    from this point on, anyone can run his sw in windows, older versions of windows (with which it is competing) and most of all: any linux distro or other OS.

    this further on means, that non-technical people will run linux on their boxes, like any other application. for them, there is no big difference whether it's an application or a complete operating system. this means also, that ms has found it's niche, where it always was. the end user. i doubt that there will be many non-technicals, that will later change to have another OS as their host operating system.

    this also solves the 64bit problem, the old 32 bit apps can still be run.
  • Interesting assumptions (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Todd Knarr (15451) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @10:14AM (#16088591)
    (http://www.silverglass.org/)

    It's interesting the unstated assumption in the arguments against heterogenity: that any given company must support multiple platforms for heterogenity to work. I don't think that's true, though. If any given company uses a single platform, but different companies choose different single platforms, the end result is much the same overall: exploits have a much smaller target they'll work on.

    And further, I don't think the arguments about the cost of supporting multiple platforms hold up. There's more than enough research supporting the contention that it takes fewer people to support Unix-based desktops than Windows-based ones, and that makes sense given the remote-admin capabilities built into desktop Unix that come from it's server roots. So suppose a company switches to a 50/50 mix of Windows and Linux desktops, and a Linux tech can support twice as many desktops as a Windows tech could. Yes, supporting two platforms costs more than supporting one. But at the same time you've just halved the number of Windows support people you need because you've got half the number of Windows desktops (assuming you've got more than 1 or 2 people could support). You need to replace them with Linux support people, but you only need 1 Linux guy added for every 2 Windows guys you're dropping. If you started with 4 Windows techs, you'd drop 2 Windows techs and add 1 Linux tech for a total of 3 techs now. That's a 25% drop in personnel costs. When figuring costs, you have to add in the reduction in personnel costs as well. Plus there's the reduction in licensing costs that offset any increase from having multiple platforms.

    And finally, there's the BSA. We've all read the reports about their audits and the havoc they create. If your company's already supporting non-proprietary platforms, you're in a much better position to do an Ernie Ball if the BSA gives you grief.

  • by Kazoo the Clown (644526) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @03:12PM (#16091356)

    They had the only OS that ran on the cheapest hardware at a time when hardware was the most expensive part of the system.

    However, they are no longer the only OS that runs on the cheapest hardware, and hardware is often not the most expensive part of the system anymore. The equation has changed, but the interesting question is, has or will Microsoft change sufficiently to adapt to the new equation. From looking at their Vista strategy, I have serious doubts about that.

  • by matw8 (901439) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @05:31PM (#16092521)

    It's all very well knowing that Vista adds nothing compelling enough to upgrade, and that WinXP still does the job just fine, but the Microsoft EULA does not allow you to move your old OEM copy of Windows XP to new hardware, so when your old PC dies or becomes obsolete, you'll have to buy a new one with whatever flavour of Windows is going.

    Sure there will be those noble few who buy a bare-bones system and drop their own OS (Linux?) on there, but by and large, Joe Average, as well as Big Corporation wants Windows.

  • by xtracto (837672) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @07:10AM (#16087700)
    (Last Journal: Saturday October 20, @06:40PM)
    from the linked article:

    Its software is buggy, overpriced, and stress inducing.

    Man, I could not agree more with this... just now I am trying to save my girlfriend's notebook Windows Home installation. I just received a DVB USB dongle, installed it on mine (winxp) and after that tried to install it on my girlfriends notebook. Unfortunately the installation was unsuccesful due to the ether (i.e. just *because*), and after I restarted the machine showed the BSOD and restarted (woops, driver programs...)

    I tried to recover the installation with a Windows Home installation disk i have (you know, proceed as a normal install until it ask you if u want to fix the installed system), and after doing that now the #"$"#$"!#$ FUCKER !#!"%% windows asks me for my serial number... I enter the serial number UNDER the laptop and the fuck says it is not valid WHAT THE FUCK IT IS IN THE FREAKING STICKER UNDER THE NOTEBOOK...

    Of course now I downloaded the XP key recover and discover app which I am running in my notebook to get a valid WIN XP HOME serial, then I will enter it and validate the program, and then I will crack the WGA.

    Fuck, and what enrages me is that I have a fucking license to instlal windows Home... My installation disk actually constains WIN xp pro and win xp home... and I installed xp Home because tha tis what the notebook had... I am not pirating or nothing I just want it to work....

    So next time some fucking moron says that windows just work they are just saying bullshit... unfortunately, I also have Ubuntu in my latop and of course the DVB usb dongle wont work with it (at least not until configure make make install compile kernel gcc''+p'ppo ó+++-p --path ----prefix ) so, Windows is the best option (no I dont have the money to buy a Mac)

    [ Parent ]
  • by ardor (673957) on Tuesday September 12 2006, @09:17AM (#16088270)
    1) Backwards compatibility. Can't live with it, can't live without it.
    2) Vista cannot be compared to Linux, but to distros. So, I would rather compare it with SuSE 10, or Ubuntu Dapper/Edgy.
    [ Parent ]
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