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Modeling Urban Panic

Posted by ScuttleMonkey on Mon Jan 14, 2008 04:44 PM
from the godzilla-disappointed dept.
Security Technology
Schneier is reporting that Arizona State University's Paul Torrens has been developing a computer simulation to model urban panic. "The goal of this project is to develop a reusable and behaviorally founded computer model of pedestrian movement and crowd behavior amid dense urban environments, to serve as a test-bed for experimentation." The simulation tests behaviors from how a crowd flees from a burning car to how a pathogen might be transmitted through a mobile pedestrian over time among others.
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  • You need a simulation for this? (Score:5, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 14 2008, @04:45PM (#22041342)

    The simulation tests behaviors from how a crowd flees from a burning car

    Hmmm... my guess is AWAY from the burning car.

    • Re:You need a simulation for this? (Score:5, Interesting)

      by evanbd (210358) on Monday January 14 2008, @04:50PM (#22041428)

      Of course you do.

      Any time you want to answer the question "What will happen to X in the event of Y?" you either need to try it, or you need a model. Your model ("crowd moves away") probably gives correct results, but not detailed ones. If you want more detailed results, with answers to more detailed questions (How fast? Which direction? How does it change with pedestrian density? How do obstacles matter?) then you need a better model.

      If you want to improve pedestrian traffic, police response, crowd control... This model could be quite helpful.

      • Re:You need a simulation for this? (Score:5, Insightful)

        by phobos13013 (813040) on Monday January 14 2008, @05:15PM (#22041860)
        It could be, but I believe some parameters of the modeling AI need to be changed. Take a look at the massive crowd evacuating through the small aperture. The crowds on the fringe just stand there and pile up while the late-comers in the middle flow right through since the fringes dont move. In a real crowd (even under regular evacuation measures and not one in a "panic") would never go for this! People would constantly be trying to overcome the person not moving in front of them! The fringe individuals would immediately relocate to the center which is dwindling in length.

        I don't think this model takes a lot of human behavior into consideration. One requirement could be that the individuals never stop moving, they will always take the available (open) path towards the exit even if it is not the straight line path which they are lined up in queue for. It also doesn't take into the consideration of a possibility of a trample situation where perhaps a threshold value of energy from a surging crowd overcomes the resistance of the small group of slower moving individuals in front. But of course, this is a great start for a complex computational issue!

        • There's more than movement, too (Score:5, Interesting)

          by blueZ3 (744446) on Monday January 14 2008, @05:42PM (#22042368) Homepage
          Those people on the outside are pressing against the folks in the middle and people at the back are pressing forward. The nice stream shown doesn't appear to account for this, especially as none of the sims are crushed, trampled, or otherwise flattened in the mad rush to the door.

          IRL, people on the outsides frantically push their way toward the exit, creating pressure on those in the center that frequently results in a crush of bodies that this model doesn't seem to model very well. If you've ever been in a situation where the crowd pressure to pass through a bottleneck is so strong that you can't move backward, hold still, or even effectively resist the rush, you know what I'm talking about.

          This model seems to be a "in a perfect world, where the panicked crowd moves cooperatively and generally in an orderly fashion towards the exits" kind of model. It's hard to see how that's very useful in the context suggested (panic response).
        • Exactly, anyone that has ever witnessed a panic like that with a chokepoint that small knows that fights will break out, trampling of people will happen (add in about 6-7 dead children in the chokepoint) etc...

          There is ZERO civility in a panic, humanity regresses to animal instincts quite fast.
          • The fire at the Great White "concert" is a good example. There was a pile of people at the exit - choking it off - and they burned in place.

    • "how a crowd flees from a burning car"

      Crowds don't flee from burning cars any more than they flee from the scene of a burning building - they stand around and gawk. Just look at the traffic jams as rubberneckers slow down to look at a car on fire on the highway, or even just smoke coming out from under the hood.

      • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

        by mangu (126918)

        Crowds don't flee from burning cars any more than they flee from the scene of a burning building

        They certainly do, if they are inside.

        • Crowds don't flee from burning cars any more than they flee from the scene of a burning building
          They certainly do, if they are inside.

          ... and how the fsck do you get a crowd into a car? Round up a bunch of midgets at the local circus, stuff them in, toss some gasoline on them, and light it? That'll attract a crowd, for sure ...

          • Cmon man, clowns are people too, let them have a few niche simulations for their tricks with volume =)

            beep beep!


    • The simulation tests behaviors from how a crowd flees from a burning car

      Hmmm... my guess is AWAY from the burning car.
      Not even close! The crowd will stand and gawp at the burning car.

  • 5) identify, if possible, the tell-tale signs of a peaceful crowd about to metamorphosize into a hellish mob;
    Post a story about Microsoft/Sony/SCO, that sort of thing?

    • 4) design a mall which can compel customers to shop to the point of bankruptcy, to walk obliviously for miles and miles and miles, endlessly to the point of physical exhaustion and even death;
      Now that's what I call science! Now, if only we could design a website that compelled people to browse, even to the point of losing their jobs, reading obliviously to their need to shower, posting endlessly to the point of mental confusion and even complete retardation... Oh, wait...

      • determine how various urban typologies, such as plazas, parks, major arterial streets and banlieues, can be reconfigured in situ into a neutralizing force when crowds do become riotous

        According to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banlieue), "les banlieues" can be translated as suburbs, brothels or housing projects. It might be a good idea to find out which of these is being tested -- it's likely to make a big difference in how they can be reconfigured.

  • Yes but can it model... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by billius (1188143) on Monday January 14 2008, @04:47PM (#22041374) Homepage
    a zombie attack? And if so, can it compensate for the differences between slow-moving George Romero zombies and fast-moving British zombies?
  • This should make factoring the optimum escape path from the impending zombie apocalypse trivial!

    Does it account for transmission of pathogen by saliva?

  • didn't they do this... (Score:5, Funny)

    by notgm (1069012) on Monday January 14 2008, @04:49PM (#22041404)
    didn't they do model this already in the Grand Theft Auto series?

    step a. pedestrian looks at event.
    step b. pedestrian throws hands in air.
    step c. pedestrian runs away.
    step d. pedestrian gets winded, approximately 1/2 block from event.
    step e. pedestrian forgets event.
    step f. pedestrian walks around aimlessly.
    step g. (sometimes) pedestrian's head explodes, becomes event triggering new step a.

    seemed pretty darn realistic to me.
    • Did Rockstar make State of Emergency before or after GTA3?
      • Definitely after. The implementation of crowd motion in that game was derived from a more general brownian motion algorithm. The individuals in the crowd didn't really interact with the setting as much as they swirled around in it.

  • I can answer one of these (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Malevolent Tester (1201209) * on Monday January 14 2008, @04:51PM (#22041440) Journal
    5) identify, if possible, the tell-tale signs of a peaceful crowd about to metamorphosize into a hellish mob;

    Riot police. I've seen several demonstrations turn violent, and every single time it was preceded by riot police either attacking people (I've seen Metropolitan Police TSG hit a pregnant woman for talking back to them), herding people into an enclosed space and beating those who try and get out or baton charging a peaceful crowd.*

    *This is not to say the police cause all riots, but they're certainly a factor in at least some of them.

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by flabbergasted (518911)

      Ambrose Bierce defined it best in his "Devil's Dictionary"

      riot n. A popular entertainment given to the military by innocent bystanders.

  • when Hollywood has done several [imdb.com] studies [imdb.com] on fleeing [imdb.com] citizens [imdb.com] already?

  • Yes but... (Score:3, Funny)

    by grub (11606) <slashdot@grub.net> on Monday January 14 2008, @04:52PM (#22041470) Homepage Journal

    ... can it predict how a crowd in Times Square will flee from the goatse guy being displayed on the jumbotron?

  • Why simulate it? (Score:4, Funny)

    by rucs_hack (784150) on Monday January 14 2008, @04:55PM (#22041532)
    All you have to do is knock out the west coast's WoW access on a saturday and wait.

  • Wow. First, Shawn of the Dead was on this weekend. Then this story comes on. It's good they are building a more advanced way of modeling this, the previous way [kevan.org] was rather simple.

    Not my program, I found it years ago. There is a port of the 3D version on my site that I updated to run on OS X.

  • 4) design a mall which can compel customers to shop to the point of bankruptcy, to walk obliviously for miles and miles and miles, endlessly to the point of physical exhaustion and even death;
    For the love of humanity, DO NOT let Neiman Marcus get hold of this information! They're already quite advanced on the bankruptcy part.

  • Links to the Rendered Videos (Score:5, Interesting)

    by phobos13013 (813040) on Monday January 14 2008, @05:04PM (#22041682)
    Much more interesting than the Schneir description of the actual site in question. Here [geosimulation.org] they have fully rendered videos from multiple vantages of the studies amongst other research topics of the professor.
  • I welcome our new Second Foundation overlords!

    Hey! Get that Mule out of here!

  • Significant problem... (Score:3, Insightful)

    by RingDev (879105) on Monday January 14 2008, @05:12PM (#22041828) Homepage Journal
    The demo they show of the modeler shows scenarios where the subjects want to get to some place. That's neat and all, but in a panic, people aren't trying to get TO some place, they are trying to get AWAY from some place.

    -Rick

  • Been there done that (Score:5, Interesting)

    by JustNiz (692889) on Monday January 14 2008, @05:21PM (#22041942)
    My CS AI prof at University of Reading had done this about 15 years ago, following the tube train fire at Kings Cross, London.
    He created a model of the station and passengers, programmed only about 6 simple rules into the movenent of each passenger, and found that the model pretty accurately recreated where they found the actual bodies in the station.
  • There was a fun Atari game called Agent USA that did this way back in 1984.
    Czech it out! http://classicgaming.gamespy.com/View.php?view=GameMuseum.Detail&id=33 [gamespy.com]

  • Actual link (Score:2, Informative)

    by zimage (6623)
    The included link is for a blog that links to a blog which links to the actual website: http://www.geosimulation.org/crowds/ [geosimulation.org]
  • with a CPU, a GPU, a PPU, a P'PU, a SAPU, a DIADRPU[TM], a TBNPU, and a CULCAOPU

    * Central Processing Unit
    * Graphics Processing Unit
    * Physics Processing Unit
    * Panic Processing Unit
    * Sexual Arousal Processing Unit
    * DRM Infringement Attempt Detection and Reporting Processing Unit(R)
    * Terabit Network Processing Unit
    * Computer Upgrade Loan Consolidation Assistance Offer Processing Unit

  • Actual link (Score:3, Informative)

    by zimage (6623) on Monday January 14 2008, @05:32PM (#22042138) Homepage
    The link in the summary doesn't link to Dr. Torrens' actual research, but a blog about it. Here's the research's website: http://www.geosimulation.org/crowds/ [geosimulation.org]
  • So will it be able to simulate a anthrax covered minivan with seven free Wii systems in the trunk? Seems impossibly complex to me.

    They should remember that sometimes it's cheaper to do experiments in real life.
  • ... the "where do we put the guys with tasers" problem.
  • I was under the impression that urban panic is already well documented for many different scenarios, and I can't see how modelling it in a computer/mathematical simulation is in any way groundbreaking. It seems like the type of project you might set undergraduate students to do as a run of the mill exercise not something particularly groundbreaking and newsworthy.

    Is there something about this particular approach that makes it groundbreaking?

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by Prof.Phreak (584152)
      One use is finding bottlenecks in new construction or city planning. if a dirty bomb blows up in the middle of the city, what will cripple evacuation?

      It's not something that can be done once and that's it. It's something where every new construction/change needs to be modeled. Even new technology (like cell phones) can change the crowd behavior.

  • Direct link (Score:4, Informative)

    by Dan100 (1003855) on Monday January 14 2008, @05:48PM (#22042496) Homepage
    to the research [geosimulation.org]. Even better, the ASU press release went out seven months ago [asu.edu].
  • ... shutdown /. for a few days. What the hell would I do all day - work? I'm getting creeped out just thinking about it.

  • Schneier is reporting that Arizona State University's Paul Torrens has been developing a computer simulation to model urban panic.

    Just come to Boston when it snows heavily mid-day on a workday. Last time it snowed:

    • Employers/employees freaked out, and people started going home around 1PM
    • Plows couldn't get around because of the traffic, so snow started to build up.
    • Collisions started happening because of the snow depth, people are fucking morons and can't drive in the snow, have shitty tires. Even m
  • The first thing I thought of when I saw this was how nice it would have been to have in 2005 (see item #3 in the article). Somehow, nobody predicted that telling the people of Galveston that there was a storm headed their way and they should evacuate would cause mass hysteria and evacuation of just about all of Harris County (as far as 80 miles from the coast). As many of you remember, the results were terrible. More people died on the road than by the hurricane itself.

    With proper modeling of urban panic

  • Certianly interesting... (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Gat0r30y (957941) on Monday January 14 2008, @06:23PM (#22043148) Homepage Journal
    I wonder how this model can compensate for cultural differences. I was recently in China, where outside of major cities (Shanghai, Beijing) closer to the country (even in very large cities) there is no concept of waiting in line. It takes some getting used to, even after a month of acclimatizing I couldn't help but try to form a line, like i'm the one westerner who's going to show the 4 million people of Wuxi China how to wait in a line. How would crowds with that sort of cultural leaning move vs. say a very polite crowd where everyone tries to let other people go in front? How might these factors get paramaterized?

    On another note the mall designed to get people to shop to death is about the scariest thing Ive ever heard of. After hearing of that I'm pretty sure this will end up being used for evil.

  • What about a dynamic environments... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by moncho (1177945) on Monday January 14 2008, @06:39PM (#22043380)
    This completely reminded me of the opening of the London Millennium Bridge in London (crossing the Thames) were the bridge (nicknamed the Wobbly bridge) began to sway due to a few pedestrians who, by happenstance, inadvertently stepped in the same direction at the same time, causing a slight sway which on the rebound caused a few more people to step into the same direction, causing further swaying, increasing the effect w/ every oscillation. This effect is known as Synchronous Lateral Excitation. The funny thing is that each step, even several in synchrony, have negligible effects on bridge stress models... it was that this particular sway happened in such a way that forced more pedestrians on the bridge to step INTO the direction of the sway, continuing until most everyone on the bridge (up to 2,000 pedestrians) were contributing energy to the sway. The aforementioned is an instance of an unexpected design flaw due to inadequate modeling, and one can always come up w/ such instances, but these are meant to be learned and avoided... not repeated.

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